Probably a good point but I think that a better coach does much better with the talent on this team than Petke is doing at the moment. A coach that is better at team building, a coach that is better with subs, lineup adjustments to keep players fresh, a coach that knows when to sit aging veterans, etc. etc. would be a better choice than Petke. Plata is a problem right now and the question is why? Is it because he can't get along with Petke? Is there not a place on the team for him? That can't possibly be because Baird has sucked for weeks now. Petke should be better at molding the players into a cohesive unit but only seems to be adept at the opposite. He seems to really enjoy singling players out as bad examples to their teammates. RSL is on pace for 46 points right now on points per game but only play 5 teams below them on the table right now out of the last 15 games. Has Petke shown any ability to have RSL play anything but down to their competition? I just don't see Mike doing anything to make this team a contender. Even with so few injuries this season and the very rain free pre-season. I definitely don't see Waibel doing anything but generating excuses for why it's so hard to General Manager and stuff. Petke out. Waibel out. EMBRATSU the crap out of the rest of the season it is for me.
After watching Mexico’s tactical moves during the Gold Cup Championship game it really reinforced to me how a top manager does make a big difference. Certainly we don’t see TATA-like moves out of Petke. At the same time, I’ve always maintained that the real key to success is the level of talent on the field. That’s where I’m still at. I don’t know how this compares to the rest of the league, but RSL has scored 1 goal or less in 12 of 19 league games. That’s 63%. Looking at the median number of goals scored and given up, our median game score is 1-1. So scoring is an issue even though the attack is where most of the payroll goes: especially if you count Yura and Pool Boy. Those 2 botched decisions are a huge cloud still hanging over this team. I don’t think this can be over-emphasized.
The earlier posted data on Sam Johnson’s scoring made me curious so I did some further numbers crunching. Games Started Sam has started in 10 games. He has scored in 7 of them. He has 8 goals in them. The team record is 5-0-4. This equates to 1.7 points per game. The WIN percentage is just under 60%. The team has scored 14 goals. This equates to a mean of 1.4 goals per game. The median is 1. Percent of games in which RSL scores 2 or more goal is 40%. Games Not Started Sam has not started 9 games. He was subbed in in 6. On average he subs in during the 72nd minute. Sam’s goals scored: 0 Team record is 3-2-4. This equates to 1.2 points per game. The WIN percentage is 33%. Team goals are 11. This equates to 1.2 goals per game. The median is 1. Percent of games in which RSL scores 2 or more goals is 33%. Results The team has clearly been more potent scoring goals when Johnson starts. 1.4 gpg to 1.2 gpg. RSL has scored 2 or more goals in 40% of games he has started, compared to 33%. When Sam subs in he has no observable scoring impact (this doesn’t take into account any assists he might have had). The team has clearly been more successful when Johnson starts. 1.7 ppg to 1.2 ppg. The difference of 0.5 ppg extrapolated over 34 games is 17 points!!! In other words, the difference between missing the playoffs and being a high seed. Another measure of success is that RSL’s WIN percentage with Johnson starting is 60%, compared to 33% when he doesn’t. Discussion The decision on who to start up front rests squarely on Petke. In hindsight not starting Johnson more has a high probability of being a mistake. The caveat here is that I do not know what role Johnson’s health might have played in those decisions. Based on the data, Johnson should start almost every game in which he is healthy for the remainder of the season. I will also say here that this goes against my historic narrative that most of the blame for the lack of success rests on Waibel. I still think Waibel is a liability, but Petke could be more of a liability than I thought.
this is awesome, thanks for putting it together. A few points worth mentioning: Whenever someone does an analysis like this, I immediately ask who the opponents were in each block of data. Scoring 8 goals against lower level teams isn't as impressive as the data initially sets out Further, the location of those goals is important. Is Johnson better at home or on the road? Is the team more successful with him on the field at home or on the road? etc 19 games isn't a small data set, but it's hard to pull too much information from it. Statistics in soccer are not as powerful as they are in sports like hockey, basketball, and especially baseball, where games are much more frequent. With a more tactically savvy coach I would ask what the formation and tactical gameplan was across those games. With Petke, though, I'm not really sure this much matters. Some games I think he has a gameplan, other games its clear he does not.
Someone on Reddit did a similar post looking at our back 4. When the backline is Toia-Onuoha-Glad-Herrera, we're 6-2-1 (W-L-D). When it's anything else, we're 2-7-1. So 2.1 PPG vs 0.7 PPG. I'd like to see splits with Johnson also - i.e., how did we do with Johnson + Toia/Glad/Ned/Herrera, vs with that backline but without Johnson. Etc. If this were basketball it'd be easier to make these sorts of lineup comparisons. If only soccer had more substitutions.
These are solid points that you make. The “n” is too low for more definitive statements than those I made. That’s also why I included the “median” in some parts. With or without Johnson the median score still tends to be 1-1. I didn’t know how to treat that in my discussion. Also of interest is that our defending isn’t as good when he starts. It wasn’t a huge difference, but it was different. I can do a separate post with that data. An analysis such as the one suggested by @irondeepbicycle might be very interesting in this regard. I did look at Home versus Away. I’ll post that separately too.
love this analysis, man. Thank you! Shooting from the hip - Johnson would lead to worse defense as his style creates a cap for the opposing center mids that Kreilach, who plays slightly withdrawn, doesnt. But again, this could also just come down to quality of opponent. If Johnson is out there against Columbus but not LAFC, this isn't a fair way to draw conclusions.
I decided that looking at this based on opponent quality was just too subjective and takes much more time than I am willing to invest. Opponents aren’t typically static over the course of a season. Some get better, others get worse. So, when you play them is a factor. Plus, you have to look at other influential factors. Examples: Were they involved in CCL when you played? Were they playing 3 league games in 8 days? Who and how many of their best players sat out due to injury or call-up? Etc...
I'm surprised to see so much negativity after this game. We were playing away to a team that's been really good lately, and we looked like the better team for much of the game.
Very fair points. You can get down a rabbit hole there and it makes you question any sort of data analysis. That's true of any sport, too. Playing the Yankees after the London series with Boston isn't the same as playing them after a homestand against the Tigers or after the allstar break. I'm not trying to combat your data in any way, just bringing up things I initially think of when I see data analysis. It tells part of the story, or can reinforce what your seeing, but it's not complete by any means
Agreed. This coaching was great; the tactics were spot-on. It is one reason I am so disappointed in those six seconds in stoppage.
What negativity? The posts directly related to the San Jose game were generally positive, with some disappointment at losing like we did thrown in. It only got negative when we departed from the game and looked at the season. Those posts should have been in the 2019 Season thread to be honest. That said, there is some relevancy to these later posts and the game- - - Sam Johnson didn’t play against San Jose. We have too much trouble scoring when he doesn’t play. A lot of the frustration posted during the game was aimed at our inability to score even when we are otherwise playing pretty well. As far as the mental lapse at the end, you certainly can’t blame Waibel. These are professionals. They should never get caught flat-footed like that. It points to a lack of discipline. And Petke is where the buck stops there. I also point a bit of a finger at our Captain on the field. He needs to be more situationally aware and proactive. Sorry that this last paragraph is negative.
Two players stand out in this game to me. One, Kreilach. The header he missed in the first half was completely inexcusable. You can't be playing the target forward and not even put that header on frame. Second, Beckerman. Like RSLer pointed out, he was one of the guys caught bitching on the game winner. Just a complete disaster. One thing I did like about this game was how open it was. Both teams looked like they wanted to play. Neither knew how to score. Hell, the game winner was a poorly hit shot, honestly, that a longer/younger keeper potentially saves. The ball went into the middle of the net. No criticism has been thrown Nicky's way on it - and I'm not really going to say it's his fault - but his positioning on the goal was weird to me
In Nick’s defense, when he saw all the open space in the box he probably didn’t know whether to s*** or go blind.
Not to detract from your point but wasn't Baird playing the target forward here with Kreilach filling in for Rusnak? Also let's not forget when Baird just watched the cross from Besler roll across the open goal.
For one thing Beerking is a SJ fan and an ass. He once told me to go kill myself. It's in my feed somewhere. So F&%k him. Also, RSL just isn't a good team at the moment and the last two seasons have worn down all of the pollyanna I had left it seems. I have zero faith that Petke can do any better than he has done historically with RSL and NY. Average. Below average. I expect nothing but what we saw out of RSL in SJ. Fools gold. Looks like they're going to be fine and then that last goal happens. Admittedly they did better than the 5-1 SJ score I predicted but losing the way they did is almost worse. I've been a fan from day one. I've had season tickets since 2008 and flex passes earlier seasons so between Cassar and Petke and Waibel I'm not going to apologize for feeling like this team needs an enema. Petke and his "style" of play, whatever the crap it is, has taken the fun right out of the games for me at the moment. I wouldn't make a very good Cubs fan that's for damn sure but I am RSLTID but that doesn't mean I can't be pissed at the mediocrity that abounds. But the did play well for most of the game. I'll give you that.
Fair enough, but the larger point still stands. I think a lot of us thought SJ would wipe the floor with us but we looked pretty good for all but 6 seconds of the game. I'd much rather see that than a game where we look terrible and somehow steal a point or three.