Rearranging FIFA's confederations

The logistical aspects of travel is one thing. The financial aspect is quite another. Take a team like Guineau or Mali who has the talent to be considered a potential prelim qualifier out of Africa. I don't know what the finances of the FA are, but I've got to imagine that when a few of the bigger African FAs are so poorly run that one seems to have problems with finding money for player bonuses for the actual WC every cycle, that smaller FAs are really broke. I don't see Guineau jetting around the world to play Japan, Croatia, Ecuador, etc for one match. Africa in particular has enough problems securing the services of their best players for qualifying campaigns. This won't make it any easier.

A final "second chance" tournament to place teams via interconfed groups is probably easier:

UEFA: 24 Euros direct qual to WC Qual. Non Euros small groups prior to Euro to get to 8.
8x4 = 8 direct qual champs + 16 teams in playoffs. Using 2022, UEFA quals would be done by March 2021.

CONCACAF: 12 Gold Cup + 4 more. 4x4 to 2x4 (results from fellow top 2 in group carry over). Top of both 2x4 groups direct to WC. 2nd and 3rd from both groups to interconfed playoffs (4 teams).

Asia: 6x4 to 3x4. Top of all three groups direct qual. 6 2nd/3rd in groups to playoff

OCF: 1 team to playoff

CONMEBOL: 2x5. 4 to final. 4 more to playoff

Africa: 16 Cup teams + next 8 from early qual stage = 6x4 to 3x4 (10 matches for teams joining at 6x4). 3 group winners direct to WC, next 6 to playoff.

Total: 20 direct WC entrants + host + defending champ = 22. 10 more spots.
Interconfed: 37 teams from the second chance above. Add 3 highest rated teams outside of these 37 = 40.

With direct quals shortened, run a series of mini tournaments summer prior to WC proper. 40 teams and 10 spots. 5 different 2x4 tournaments. Each team gets 3 matches at group, and the top 2 in each of the 10 initial 4-team groups are paired with other top 2s for 2 more matches. The top 2 from each of these 5 mini-tournaments get the last 10 spots.

 

But if Israel encounters any Islamic countries in World Cup qualifying, the country in question (for example, Pakistan or Indonesia or IRAN) would automatically forfeit their match, because it does not recognize Israel. How would that work, then?

(Unless of course that policy has somehow changed, which it probably hasn't...)

 

Africa has two confederational tournaments per four years. From June 2012 to now (four years), Ghana has played 22 qualifiers for World Cups and African Nations Cup combined (this excludes games in the tournaments). USA has played 20 qualifiers during that time, with all of them for the World Cup as they don't have to play Gold Cup Qualifiers. Would somebody like to use http://resources.fifa.com/mm/docume...imc2014-2018fifaversionv29jan2016_neutral.pdf to make a proposal for African qualifying for World Cup 2018, African Nations Cup 2015, and African Nations Cup 2017? I'm not disputing the fact that the draw has a significant effect on Africa's World Cup qualifiers, but I don't see a solution other than reducing the frequency of the African Nations Cup or combining qualifiers for an African Nations Cup and a World Cup.

 

I think combining is the only way that really makes sense and frankly everyone should be doing it to some extent to reduce fixture congestion. The 16 Cup of Nations teams should get direct admittance to second (or third) stage WC groups. They should meet teams from an earlier group stage that play their games during off days of the continental cup/before the cup. This would permit the confed to reduce to 24 teams immediately after the continental tournament ends, thus providing more flexibility in terms of formatting.

Once the WC teams are identified, non-WC qualifiers compete again for continental spots, and so on.

There isn't a more equitable or feasible way IMO.

CONCACAF, UEFA, etc could be done in a similar manner.

 

We've done something similar in Asia this time around. In qualifying for round three of the WCQ's we also qualified for the Asian Cup in 2019. The teams eliminated from the WC are now going through another qualification round to decide who else qualifies.

 

That's why I'm arguing that Israel really ought to stay in UEFA.

 

Yeah. Asia and Africa have both at different points used world cup quals as a short cut to culling teams for their continental tournaments at various points. What I would like to see is the follow up continental tournament used as a short cut toward eliminating teams for the subsequent WC. Teams that aren't in the AFC Cup could go through elimination as the AFC Cup is going on (or just before).

As it stands, Australia play 8 matches as part of the 2nd round (8 groups of 5) and then play 10 more matches in a two groups of 6 stage. The bottom two teams in the 2nd round group aren't going to be competitive in the least. You guys went 4-0-0 with 19 goals for vs. 0 against.

Rather than doing that, cutting the non-AFC Cup teams down to 8 and then running 6 groups of 4 would be preferable. The worst 6-7 teams wouldn't be particularly competitive, but it would make the earlier round more interesting. You'd finish first, but on 13-15 pts over 6 matches and with a more competitive goal differential (like +9 or so). This could be completed by mid October 2015, which means club seasons don't get interrupted from mid October until the end of March. The results would carry over from the 2nd place team in Australia's group, which means there would only be 4 more games to play to complete the next stage (3 groups of 4). That could have been wrapped up by mid June 2016.

Australia would have only played 10 matches and depending upon the qualifying format/allocation there would be a couple of scenarios:
A-group winners from the 3x4 to WC with interconfed tournament for the "at-large" bids involving teams 4-9 the following summer (2017). Asian qualifiers would either get in directly playing only 10 matches or go through the interconfed tourney for a total of only 15 matches (assuming they were in the prior AFC Cup, which is extremely likely).
B-A final 6 team group. Again, the results could carry from between the first/second place teams in each group of the 3x4. So that's another 8 matches, leaving teams like Australia and Japan playing the same number of matches anyway, but with the benefit of a single table to qualify. The single hex would run the same time as the current 2x6 (Sep to Sep of 2016-17)

 

With the Asian Cup the year after a world cup it doesn't really suit to do it that way. In any case, those lower ranked teams should have the right to test themselves against the top teams now and then. The only real change for us in the new format is four extra match days in WCQ. This takes the place of a separate Asian Cup qualifying format which in the past had six match days. Its actually two matches less for us in this format. If you wanted to have world wide group qualifying, this sytem gives us Asian qualifiers right now, still two years before the world cup and before some confederations have even started qualifying matches. You could take the current 12 3rd round teams, or 1st and 2nd in the preliminary groups giving you 16 teams. Lets be honest, with seeded groups any Asian teams capable of qualifying through world groups aren't going to be eliminated in the second round.

 

Asia's so called best teams all finished last in their group, and still they didn't lose any spots.

Will all four Asian teams finishing last in the group for 2014, I don't think any of them would make the World Cup.

 

In 2010 two made the knockout phase, a 3rd was eliminated on goal difference in the only group where two teams made the quarter finals and they didn't get any extra.

That only depends on the teams that didn't make the world Cup being worse than them, and until we actually play those games we will never know for sure. My own view is that I would like to see more spots decided on games between teams from different confederations, as it would reflect the current strength of the teams, rather than historical strength.

 

I do love Asian football teams, but I was so optimistic that Japan would do well that their failure came as a huge shock to me, and with being considered Asia best team I am just very pessimistic about about their future. However, for some reason I have a good feeling about Korea's future, but they could disappoint me like Japan.

 

I was disappointed at the performance of the other teams in 2014 as well. My own team exceeded my expectations (not in terms of score, but in the way they played some positive football at times even though clearly outclassed by all three opponents). I think we will be much stronger in 2018 and given a reasonable draw could make the second round. Surely we can't be as unlucky as last time when each team we drew was either first or second ranked in their respective pots.

 

Africa gets 5 teams in the World Cup, so reducing the number of teams to 24 for the last (possibly only) group stage doesn't make sense unless you want either:

1. 4 groups of 5 and 1 group of 4
2. 4 groups of 6 with 1 second place team qualifying
3. 6 groups of 4 where 1 group winner didn't qualify

For CONCACAF to combine World Cup Qualifiers and Gold Cup Qualifiers would require the North American countries to lose their automatic Gold Cup spots and eliminate the Copa Centroamericana and Caribbean Cup in favor of having teamd from different sub-regions qualify against each other.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_AFC_Asian_Cup says Asian Cup 2019 will have 24 teams, so "cutting the non-AFC Cup teams down to 8" would make 32 teams. I didn't like AFC having 8 groups in the first WCQ group stage when they wanted 12 teams in the second group stage. Here's what I think they should have done:

1. Reduce the number of teams to 36 for the first group stage (AFC tried 40 before Kuwait and Indonesia had problems)

2. Have 6 groups of 6 with these consequences:

Top 2 advance in WCQ and go to AFC Cup
Third goes to AFC Cup
Fourth and fifth go to another round of AFC Cup qualifying
Sixth are eliminated from qualifying for both tournaments

There wouldn't be a need to compare teams in different groups. It would mean 2 more games than in groups of 5 but it wouldn't take any more matchdays.

3. While the Top 12 play WCQs, the 12 fourth place and fifth place teams are drawn into 3 AFC Cup qualifying groups of 4, with each group having two fourth place teams and two fifth place teams. The Top 2 in each group would qualify for the AFC Cup. Alternatively, the 12 fourth place and fifth place teams could be drawn into 2 groups of 6 with the Top 3 in each group qualifying for the AFC Cup.

 

I hope at least 1 Asian team makes the knockout stages in 2018.

 

I was viewing this as a scenario that incorporated a more extensive inter-confed tournament system for at large berths. Others were trying to use an open field of 80 or so with groups drawn completely across confeds. This won't work for expense/logistical reasons. The way it might work is to cut down on all confeds direct WC bids. This would leave room for a tournament. In order to do so in a scenario in which the final 8-10 bids would be up for grabs via small groups at a tournament, Africa would probably only have 3 direct spots (if 10 spots are up for grabs), so 6x4 down to 3x4 makes sense. If those cuts are too deep, maybe 8 spots up for grabs for 25-32 is better. In that case, Africa might retain 4 direct spots.

This isn't terribly problematic. Given the talent pool/dispersion in CONCACAF, USA/Mexico/Canada have always been in the last 12 of WC qualifying. The top 12 talent pool is effectively 3 North American teams + 5 Central American teams + 4 CFU. You could also easily permit sub-regions to keep their Gold Cup qual systems in place by stipulating that the top 6-8 from WC qualifying (and Canada if not already in the top 6-8) go directly to Gold Cup. Sub regional tournaments could include CFU/Central American teams already qualified to round out the remaining 4-6 spots. To incentivize those already qualified, the CFU champ plays the Central American champ in a playoff for a 1 seed.

Yeah, I forgot they added those teams to the tourney. Talk about bloated. But yeah, your idea to whittle the field seems reasonable to me. My goal was to free up room the summer before a WC to have an interconfed playoff tourney for 8-10 spots. For this to work above, using this cycle, the 6x6 would need to begin immediately after the AFC Cup to initiate the next AFC Cup cycle, but that would only get you to 12 for WCQ. There would be enough time to get down to 3-4 teams and allow for a summer final chance playoff tourney. Easier to start with 24 AFC Cup teams + 8 more teams from prelim quals in 8 groups of 4. 6 matches to get down to 16. 4 more to get to 8. 4 more to get to 4. That's taking top 2 from each group. Alternatively 8 groups of 4. Top 2 advance. 4 groups of 4. Winner gets a direct spot. That's only 10 matches.

 

Nor should they have. Having 2 out of 4.5 teams reaching the R16 is still below average.

If we take out the politics and focus only on the math, only confederations that send > 50% of their teams to the R16 and >25% of their teams to the R8 should be up for consideration in terms of extra WC spots.

 

Right, since Asia usually has four teams at the World Cup, mathematically the odds should be to have 1 team in the quarterfinals.

 

The problem with all of this (and its been discussed before) is that the domestic FA's like having long and bloated qualifying processes, because that is how they make their $$$.

Fans and players want fewer matches, but the FA's want more matches....

 

Not true, teams like Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, have been left out of the WC many times, and this teams are a millon times better than many others that get to play the WC every time cause of their allocation. Heck, even Brazil could be left out of the next WC given their place in eliminatorias, even Argentina could, because the CONMEBOL qualifications are so hard. Can you imagine a WC without Messi?

CONMEBOL is by far the most competitive confederation, and if a very good, or even great team, haves to battle their way to the WC with other 9 very good or even great teams, there are always some really good teams that are gonna be left out.

 

He's made enough money and won enough trophies and Ballon d'Ors that I wouldn't feel sorry for him. If fans want to see Messi, there are plenty of La Liga and Champions League games to see him. Even if UEFA and CONMEBOL got more World Cup spots, the World Cup will have plenty of players that most fans don't know much about. World Cup rosters have 736 combined players. If there was a consensus about the Top 100 players in the world and you wanted all of them in a tournament, you would need to create a tournament that wasn't based on 32 clubs or 32 national teams. Soccer is a team sport. I don't know how much people here know about baseball in the USA, but in 1972 Steve Carlton led the National League in Earned Run Average while playing for the worst team in the 12 team league. I'm a Manchester United fan, but I'll still bring up that Steven Gerrard (while not being as good as Messi) is probably among the leaders in most points his club earned while he was playing since England started calling it the Premier League. Gerrard never won a Premier League.

Colombia ranks better in the FIFA Rankings among all countries (3rd) than in CONMEBOL qualifying so far (5th).

 

You wouldnt care, but the world is full of neutral fans who only want to see Messi. Case in point: this Copa, lots of Americans, people from other countries, i heard they were a lot of indians and chinese, central americans, etc, that are fans of Messi and are following the Argentinian team (thats why its one of the teams that brings more people into the stadium -70,000 and 60,000 in each game respectively- despite being in a remote, non soccer loving country),in the game vs Panama it was full of people chanting MESSI MESSI going nuts at him!! and even more nuts when he entered and started socring like crazy!!
you even go to the most remote country in the world and people there are fans of Messi (google or youtube "Messi india"and youll see what i mean, he is a phenomenon there), so, Messi is a global phenomenon, one that people in every country and every WC want to see, and if he is out, believe me, NO ONE will be happy. Not the sponsors, not the organizers of the WC, not Russia, not FIFA, not the fans. It would be a disaster. All because of being in a very difficult confederation.

 

This is true only for certain FAs. It isn't true for true minnows in early playoffs. It isn't true for teams that aren't able to draw sufficient numbers to their matches to recoup costs. It isn't even true for the big fish (more on that in a second). The group that stands to lose are the lightweights who wouldn't otherwise get a big date vs a major team in their confed, ie a San Marino if they were eliminated in an earlier round and didn't get England.

Even an England, who get really high attendance at every match regardless of opponent, would likely net more money in a shorter system. In the most recent Euro qualifying campaign, they had 83k for 2 matches, 75k for 2 matches, and around 50-55k for San Marino, but at discounts for that one. They aren't making any money on the first 25% of capacity at normal prices at Wembley because those proceeds are needed for match day operations. In a smaller 4 team group with a modest 5-10% bump in attendance due to scarcity/greater individual match importance plus a 10% price premium, they'd net the same or more over 3 matches than they do for 5 currently. For a lot of teams, they only have one really big gate match at maybe 40-50k and several others at 15-30k where they aren't making much money. In a 30k venue, one match at 30k is about as profitable as 2 at 20k or 4 at 15k (concessions included).

Reducing the fixture list also frees up more time for high profile friendlies for those who might qualify directly. Those net better than a final round dead match vs a mediocre opponent in a bloated qualifying system anyway.

 

But we all know that its the minnows who run FIFA...there are far more small nations who have no hope of ever qualifying for the World Cup than there are big nations who qualify regularly...that's why there's all the talk of expanding the WC from 32 to 40 teams.