[R] The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Sep 14, 2009.

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  1. TheScarfMachine

    May 1, 2007
    Baltimore, MD
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    This year's playoff race is a prime example why I prefer MLS to any league in the world. There's only two teams out of 15 who can't win the title this year; Mathmatically, there's only one. Wow. Every single game matters over the entire season, and it has come to a fantastic crescendo this fall.

    I can only imagine how dramatic this is going to be in 2011, with three more teams all vying for those precious 8 spots.
     
  2. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Well, there will also probably be a couple more teams out of it. This year is really an aberration.
     
  3. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    I hope they don't change the playoff format next year.
     
  4. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Well, no one else dropping out just yet.
     
  5. FlashMan

    FlashMan Member

    Jan 6, 2000
    'diego
    Club:
    --other--
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Yea, this thing has gotten crazy. Maybe more like 12 or 13 drowning men grabbing each trying to stay afloat....and only 8 are going to make it.

    The season may end up with the best team playing at the end of the year - FC Dallas - ending up on the outside looking in. Too bad they got going so late. Still time though.....just...
     
  6. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    It would be a shame if the highest scoring team in the league failed to make the playoffs two years running (2008 LA, 2009 FCD).
     
  7. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Code:
    [B][U]In Brief[/U]
    
    - It's official: the playoff race is now, to quote Autogolazo,
      "[URL="http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18898906&postcount=71"]like 8 drowning men grabbing at each other to stay afloat.[/URL]" 
    - Best. MLS Playoff Race. EVER!
    
    [U]Housekeeping[/U]
    
    - Unless there's an objection, I'm gonna start eliminating some
      of the more meaningless numbers from the table -- like the 
      T# and M# for clinched and eliminated teams.
    - Mr. Bandwagon - [URL="http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18899079&postcount=72"]Got it.[/URL] Thanks![/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]The Table[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
    [COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  26  4  12  10  04  46  1.77  53  58  --  --  13[/COLOR]
    02  HOU  27  3  12  07  08  43  1.59  48  52  03  16  07
    03  CHI  27  3  10  11  06  41  1.52  46  50  05  14  05
    04  LAG  27  3  10  11  06  41  1.52  46  50  05  14  05
    05  COL  27  3  10  09  08  39  1.44  43  48  07  12  03
    06  CDC  25  5  11  05  09  38  1.52  46  53  08  17  08
    07  SEA  27  3  09  11  07  38  1.41  42  47  08  11  02
    08  NER  26  4  10  07  09  37  1.42  43  49  09  13  04
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    09  DCU  27  3  08  12  07  36  1.33  40  45  10  09  --
    10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  11  08  --
    11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  12  07  --
    12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  13  06  --
    13  KCW  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  15  07  --
    14  SJE  25  5  06  07  12  25  1.00  30  40  21  04  --
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  27  3  04  06  17  18  0.67  20  27  28  --  --[/COLOR]
    
    GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    
    - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
    01  CMB  26  46  13  13  9  4  0  3  6  4  -06
    02  HOU  27  43  13  14  8  4  1  4  3  7  -10
    03  CDC  25  38  12  13  8  2  2  3  3  7  -11
    04  LAG  27  41  13  14  5  4  4  5  7  2  -12
    05  CHI  27  41  14  13  4  6  4  6  5  2  -14
    06  NER  26  37  13  13  7  3  3  3  4  6  -15
    07  COL  27  39  14  13  8  4  2  2  5  6  -16
    08  SEA  27  38  14  13  6  6  2  3  5  5  -17
    09  DCU  27  36  13  14  6  5  2  2  7  5  -17
    10  TFC  27  35  13  14  7  3  3  2  5  7  -18
    11  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
    12  KCW  26  31  13  13  4  4  5  4  3  6  -21
    13  FCD  27  33  14  13  7  4  3  2  2  9  -22
    14  SJE  25  25  13  12  5  4  4  1  3  8  -26
    15  NYR  27  18  14  13  4  4  6  0  2  11 -37
    
    Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]
    
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
         WK29   WK30   WK31   WK32
    
    CDC: @DCU   KCW    SJE    @CHI
                              HOU
    CHI: @LAG          @NER   CDC
    CMB: SEA    @NER   @DCU   NER
    COL: NER           @FCD   @RSL
    DCU: CDC           CMB    @KCW
    FCD:        @SJE   COL    @SEA
    HOU: KCW           LAG    @CDC
    KCW: @HOU   @CDC   SEA    DCU
    LAG: CHI           @HOU   SJE
    NER: @COL   CMB    CHI    @CMB
    NYR: @SJE          @RSL   TFC
    RSL:               NYR    COL
                       @TFC
    SEA: @CMB          @KCW   FCD
    SJE: NYR    FCD    @CDC    @LAG
                @TOR
    TFC:        SJE    RSL    @NYR
    [/B]
     
  8. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Fun facts for those already clinched: Columbus can clinch the #1 seed in the East this week-end if:

    1) Crew win vs. Seattle + Chicago draw/loss @LA, AND
    2) NE fails to win @COL.

    The Crew can clinch a top 2 seed out east if:

    1) Crew wins vs. Seatte + Chicago draw/loss @LA, OR
    2) Crew gets more points from their game than NE does: Crew win/draw vs. NE draw/loss

    I'm sure Houston has an easy playoff clinch scenario too, just win baby.
     
  9. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Fun fact: good chance NY clinches last place this weekend.
     
  10. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Code:
    [B][U]In Brief[/U]
    
    - Just a mini-update.
    - Because LA (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44),
      if DCU (MPP: 45) draws or loses, then LA clinches a playoff spot.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]The Table[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
    [COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  26  4  12  10  04  46  1.77  53  58  --  --  13[/COLOR]
    02  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  47  50  02  14  05
    03  HOU  27  3  12  07  08  43  1.59  48  52  03  16  07
    04  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  05  11  02
    05  COL  27  3  10  09  08  39  1.44  43  48  07  12  03
    06  CDC  25  5  11  05  09  38  1.52  46  53  08  17  08
    07  SEA  27  3  09  11  07  38  1.41  42  47  08  11  02
    08  NER  26  4  10  07  09  37  1.42  43  49  09  13  04
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    09  DCU  27  3  08  12  07  36  1.33  40  45  10  09  --
    10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  11  08  --
    11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  12  07  --
    12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  13  06  --
    13  KCW  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  15  07  --
    14  SJE  25  5  06  07  12  25  1.00  30  40  21  04  --
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  27  3  04  06  17  18  0.67  20  27  --  --  --[/COLOR]
    
    GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    
    - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]
     
  11. THOMA GOL

    THOMA GOL BigSoccer Supporter

    Jul 16, 1999
    Paradise of the Pacific
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    They'll probably trade their number one draft pick:p
     
  12. boomersooner027

    May 13, 2004
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Country:
    Bahamas
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Bump:D Come on DC
     
  13. TopDogg

    TopDogg Member

    Jan 31, 2000
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    They don't get one.
     
  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Code:
    [B][U]In Brief[/U]
    
    - Because LA (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44),
      and because DCU lost to CDC, dropping their MPP to 42, LAG has now
      officially clinched a playoff spot. Hence the "*" on their M# of +1.
    - With its loss to SJE (PTS: 28), NYR (MPP: 24) has clinched last place.
    - HOU (M#: 2) clinches a playoff spot with a win.
    - CMB (PTS: 46) holds the tiebreaker over COL (MPP: 46). So COL has 
      been eliminated from the SS race. Hence the "*" on their SSE# of +1.
    - There's a growing PPG gap between the 8th and 9th place teams.
    - DCU is so screwed they're quite nearly f'cked. At 25 games they had
      a pace of -11. Three games later it's -20. The tale tells itself.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]The Table[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
    [COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  27  3  12  10  05  46  1.70  51  55  --  --  10
    02  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  47  50  01* --  05[/COLOR]
    03  HOU  27  3  12  07  08  43  1.59  48  52  02  15  07
    04  CDC  26  4  12  05  09  41  1.58  47  53  04  16  08
    05  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
    06  SEA  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
    07  COL  28  2  10  10  08  40  1.43  43  46  05  09  01*
    08  NER  27  3  10  08  09  38  1.41  42  47  07  10  02
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    09  DCU  28  2  08  12  08  36  1.29  39  42  09  05  --
    10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  10  07  --
    11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  11  06  --
    12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  12  05  --
    13  KCW  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  14  06  --
    14  SJE  26  4  07  07  12  28  1.08  32  40  17  03  --
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  28  2  04  06  18  18  0.64  19  24  --  --  --[/COLOR]
    
    GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    
    - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
    01  CDC  26  41  12  14  8  2  2  4  3  7  -09
    02  CMB  27  46  14  13  9  4  1  3  6  4  -09
    03  HOU  27  43  13  14  8  4  1  4  3  7  -10
    04  LAG  28  44  14  14  6  4  4  5  7  2  -12
    05  NER  27  38  13  14  7  3  3  3  5  6  -15
    06  CHI  28  41  14  14  4  6  4  6  5  3  -15
    07  SEA  28  41  14  14  6  6  2  4  5  5  -15
    08  TFC  27  35  13  14  7  3  3  2  5  7  -18
    09  COL  28  40  15  13  8  5  2  2  5  6  -18
    10  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
    11  DCU  28  36  14  14  6  5  3  2  7  5  -20
    12  KCW  26  31  13  13  4  4  5  4  3  6  -21
    13  FCD  27  33  14  13  7  4  3  2  2  9  -22
    14  SJE  26  28  14  12  6  4  4  1  3  8  -26
    15  NYR  28  18  14  14  4  4  6  0  2  12 -38
    
    Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]
    
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
    [U]TEAM   WK30   WK31   WK32[/U]
    CDC:   KCW    SJE    @CHI
           ----   ----   HOU
    CHI:   ----   @NER   CDC
    CMB:   @NER   @DCU   NER
    COL:   ----   @FCD   @RSL
    DCU:   ----   CMB    @KCW
    FCD:   @SJE   COL    @SEA
    HOU:   ----   LAG    @CDC
    KCW:   @CDC   SEA    DCU
    LAG:   ----   @HOU   SJE
    NER:   CMB    CHI    @CMB
    NYR:   ----   @RSL   TFC
    RSL:   ----   NYR    COL
           ----   @TFC   ----
    SEA:   ----   @KCW   FCD
    SJE:   FCD    @CDC   @LAG
           @TOR   ----   ----
    TFC:   SJE    RSL    @NYR
    [/B]
     
  15. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Code:
    [B][U]Oops[/U]
    
    - I forgot about the KCW-HOU game when I did the big update last night.
      So some of this is repeated from above. 
    
    [U]In Brief[/U]
    
    - Because HOU (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44), 
      HOU has now officially clinched a playoff spot. Hence the "*" on their 
      M# of +1.
    - Because LAG (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44), 
      LAG has now officially clinched a playoff spot. Hence the "*" on their 
      M# of +1.
    - With its loss to SJE (PTS: 28), NYR (MPP: 24) has clinched last place.
    - CMB (PTS: 46) holds the tiebreaker over COL (MPP: 46). So COL has 
      been eliminated from the SS race. Hence the "*" on their SSE# of +1.
    - HOU, LAG and CDC are all well positioned to win the Western Conference.
      Indeed, they're all almost evenly positioned. Should be a good race.
    [/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]The Table[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
    [COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  27  3  12  10  05  46  1.70  51  55  --  --  10
    02  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  47  50  01* 13  05
    03  HOU  28  2  12  08  08  44  1.57  47  50  01* 13  05[/COLOR]
    04  CDC  26  4  12  05  09  41  1.58  47  53  04  16  08
    05  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
    06  SEA  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
    07  COL  28  2  10  10  08  40  1.43  43  46  05  09  01*
    08  NER  27  3  10  08  09  38  1.41  42  47  07  10  02
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    09  DCU  28  2  08  12  08  36  1.29  39  42  09  05  --
    10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  10  07  --
    11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  11  06  --
    12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  12  05  --
    13  KCW  27  3  08  08  11  32  1.19  36  41  13  04  --
    14  SJE  26  4  07  07  12  28  1.08  32  40  17  03  --
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  28  2  04  06  18  18  0.64  19  24  --  --  --
    [/COLOR]
    
    GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    
    - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
    01  CDC  26  41  12  14  8  2  2  4  3  7  -09
    02  CMB  27  46  14  13  9  4  1  3  6  4  -09
    03  HOU  28  44  14  14  8  5  1  4  3  7  -12
    04  LAG  28  44  14  14  6  4  4  5  7  2  -12
    05  NER  27  38  13  14  7  3  3  3  5  6  -15
    06  CHI  28  41  14  14  4  6  4  6  5  3  -15
    07  SEA  28  41  14  14  6  6  2  4  5  5  -15
    08  TFC  27  35  13  14  7  3  3  2  5  7  -18
    09  COL  28  40  15  13  8  5  2  2  5  6  -18
    10  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
    11  DCU  28  36  14  14  6  5  3  2  7  5  -20
    12  KCW  27  32  13  14  4  4  5  4  4  6  -21
    13  FCD  27  33  14  13  7  4  3  2  2  9  -22
    14  SJE  26  28  14  12  6  4  4  1  3  8  -26
    15  NYR  28  18  14  14  4  4  6  0  2  12 -38
    
    Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]
    
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
    [U]TEAM   WK30   WK31   WK32[/U]
    CDC:   KCW    SJE    @CHI
           ----   ----   HOU
    CHI:   ----   @NER   CDC
    CMB:   @NER   @DCU   NER
    COL:   ----   @FCD   @RSL
    DCU:   ----   CMB    @KCW
    FCD:   @SJE   COL    @SEA
    HOU:   ----   LAG    @CDC
    KCW:   @CDC   SEA    DCU
    LAG:   ----   @HOU   SJE
    NER:   CMB    CHI    @CMB
    NYR:   ----   @RSL   TFC
    RSL:   ----   NYR    COL
           ----   @TFC   ----
    SEA:   ----   @KCW   FCD
    SJE:   FCD    @CDC   @LAG
           @TOR   ----   ----
    TFC:   SJE    RSL    @NYR
    [/B]
    [/QUOTE]
     
  16. Autogolazo

    Autogolazo BigSoccer Supporter

    Feb 19, 2000
    Bombay Beach, CA
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Unscientifically--I think 43 gets you in, 41 gets you eliminated, and 42gets you a tiebreak.

    I think Chicago and Colorado could be in serious trouble despite the look of things right now. Each has two tough games left that they could easily lose--and even 0-1-1 might not get it done.

    RSL has to win out--I don't think they can even consider aiming for 41 pts. (2-0-1).

    Toronto might be able to get away with 2 wins and a draw, but a loss would end them.

    FCD faces another "Cup Final" one-game elimination match on Wednesday to set the table for the week.
     
  17. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    I share this exact sense. One reason I think DCU is in worse shape then the numbers on the surface indicate is because they're on losing end of virtually every relevant 42 point tie-breaker.

    New England has some serious worries too: CMB, CHI, @CMB. That's a brutal schedule. They need at least a win and a draw. But with that schedule they can't count on any wins.

    The other interesting thing is Columbus. If New England beats them next weekend then the SS race is thrown wide open between Columbus, Houston, LA and Chivas. That would make things very interesting throughout the table.
     
  18. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    With parity in MLS, and particularly with the decent performances recently by San Jose and Dallas, it's hard for me to imagine any of the teams currently out of the wild cards maxing out on points. That means, I think that even teams currently at 41, like Chicago and Seattle, are pretty safe already and 1 point practically guarantees they make the playoffs.

    I guess I would argue you are one point too high in your estimates: 42 has got to be more than 90 percent assurance of getting in, at this point.
     
  19. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    With a tie at 42 the Rapids are in decent shape. They only lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with San Jose (out of it), Columbus (Not likely to be tied for a wild card), Chicago (ditto), and Seattle. Right now they win it against Dallas, FSL, LA, and NY. Everyone else goes to the second tiebreaker, goal differential, and Colorado is 3rd right now behind Columbus and Houston. The only way Colorado gets to 42 is with 2 draws so their number wouldn't change in that case and unless somebody goes on a goal scoring tear the only team likely to meet or pass that number is Seattle, who Colorado already loses the first tiebreaker to.

    If we can get a win or two draws I feel pretty good about our chances. 1 draw or two losses and we're on the outside looking in probably.
     
  20. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
  21. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Good stuff, I love it.

    1) On the chase for 8: I can see some of the chasers winning out.

    One of TFC/RSL, for one. TFC has SJ, RSL (after RSL plays midweek), @NY. If they lose/fail to win a game, I think the RSL game is the one. RSL have, NY, @TFC, COL. If they win @TFC, you have to like their chances.

    Even FCD has a shot. @SJ, COL, @SEA. @SEA is tough, but the first two are extremely winnable.

    Heck, even DC,with Crew, @KC. A home game and @KC, not impossible.

    Speaking of KC, 2/3 at home and @CHV. Not impossible.

    Point being, while I think it's unlikely for any one team to run the table, I think is possible one team does. There are only 3 weeks left, and a lot of teams don't play this week. If anyone is breathing with two weeks to go, they have to feel they have a legit shot.

    New England are the key. And to a lesser extent Colorado. With their schedule, I could easily see 3 losses, or 1 draw and 2 losses, which would keep the 8th spot under 40 unless a chasing team (TFC) puts up 41 or better.

    And Colorado has two roadies, @FCD (who'd want that right now?) and @RSL (Rio Tinto is a tough venue).

    Bottom line, I could easily see both NE and Colorado ending up with no more than 40, which could open the door for not only 1 chasing team, but maybe two.

    2) On the Shield.

    NE v. Crew is key again. A win (or even a draw) and the Crew still look fairly comfortable, even though Chivas could catch them with their GIH if they draw. Still, the Crew own the tiebreakers vs. Houston and Los Angeles (head to head) and have a big GD edge on Chivas right now. So effectively, a 3 pt lead is 4. Or 6 = 7. Though 5 does NOT equal six, if you follow.

    Right now, I'd say 50 points claims the SS for the Crew, Chivas are the only team that can better it. However, if they lose to NE, they might not hit 50.
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    The more I think about it, the more I think this is the biggest, most consequential game yet this season.

    If NE wins, then it sets up a huge 4-team battle for the Supporters Shield.

    If the Crew win, then it sets up a big 6-team brawl for the 8th spot.

    If NE and the Crew draw, then we get the battle at the top and the brawl at the bottom. (Don Garber is hoping for a draw!)

    So one way or the other this game is going to have a major effect on the whole table and on everyone's prospects for the last week. There's no result that avoids that consequence.

    It's actually too bad that this game isn't mid-week instead of being preceded by San Jose's games against FCD and TFC. But even with those two results in, and no matter really what those results are, it's still, I think, going to be the most consequential game of the season.

    One other thing: the FSC guys have been moaning and groaning for weeks about the crappy MLS games they've ended up broadcasting. They were practically apologizing last weekend. But FSC got this one.
     
  23. soccer_fan_1960

    soccer_fan_1960 New Member

    Oct 14, 2007
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    If you like numbers and want info on the playoffs, this site is the best IMHO.

    www.playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html
     
  24. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Yeah, I was a little surprised that they didn't make arrangements to broadcast a different match than SJ vs. NY. I believe ESPN already dropped at least one late-season SJ match due to the obvious lack of playoff implications there in.
     
  25. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Country:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Well, if SJ wins twice this week, and the Crew beats NE, the Quakes are still breathing with two weeks to go. Who would have predicted that? Just think where they'd be if they could have restrained themselves from last minute PK's against Colorado?

    Answer: they could catch the Revs this week.
     

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