I think a big part of the problem is Xhaka. If Xhaka is modric or peak rakitic - then we don't have to do this crap. Xhaka seemingly has to play because he is the only guy we have who can structure the game. But then he needs 2 players to wipe his bum for him if we have a more mobile 8, then Ozil plays at the top of midfield, Mhki is a defacto 4th midfielder and someone plays left wing
Easy now. I was pretty good at math, almost majored in it at college, albeit a long long time ago. More importantly I'm just not much of a follower of xG. To that point, I mistakenly thought Crazy150 was applying the 0.05 was being applied to Ramsey's pass. Stupid on my part. So would that have been more of a Key Pass stat? And does a KP have a similar numerical value to it, or is it just binary? And back to xG being relatively more subjective, I've gotten that impression from listening to podcasts, e.g. the data guys who pop up on Arsenal Vision or Arsecast or Totally Football once in a while. I recall them being challenged once or twice on an XG number and they said essentially "yeah I don't know how that was derived". In any case, if you compare xG to most of the other traditional stats, isn't it less clear cut, less binary, more open to interpretation, i.e. subjectivity? Compared to: goals, assists, shots (on target), corners, passes, etc. Maybe even the looser possession stat is more objective, if they base it on the number of passes, which I recently heard?
Yeah, I've been impressed by Mkhi, the few times he's played, and I'm disappointed he's been so left out of our A-team. BUT I understand why. AND that's a good problem for any manager to have. And that's what we've been asking for forever... to have good, quality depth and competition for places. Sooner or later one of our XI is going down to injury, and if it's Auba or Ozil, then we know Mkhi is waiting in the wings, even if they don't play exactly the same position. Our midfield depth seems pretty good. And we may be about to find out about our defensive depth. Sokratis coming off injured yesterday (didn't look too bad, but I have no idea) means that Holding may be in the XI now. Then if one of Mav or Kos can soon come back to 100% fitness (not to mention quality) then we might have something that resembles depth in the back line. But that's being a little optimistic on several fronts... I have less confidence in our defensive strength than I do in the other areas of the pitch. And I haven't even mentioned that our LB cover is questionable (AMN is still out, and Lich is more naturally a RB)
I completely agree on this And compare to 12-18 months ago! Arsenal actually has to wonder which quality attacking players to leave out. The back 5 are nowhere near good enough IMO I know Cech played well but his last 2 years are poor and i don't see him in a highline. Leno was probably a bad mistake The centrebacks are underwhelming and we have to hope Kos can make it back, or that a youngster can come good. Monreal is probably the only defender who is good enough right now.
The system is the issue. In spite of the fact that Emery likes to play out of the back, as a team, Arsenal have attempted approximately 100 fewer passes per game this season compared to last season. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but because Ozil is playing on the wing and doesn't appear to have the freedom to roam that he has had in the past, it means his influence on the game has been marginalized. If he is getting half as many touches, it means that all his other stats will likely be reduced by 50 percent.
First goal wasn’t transition though. Ramsey involved, a smart pass but was not difficult. What @mebeSajid said. Nothing subjective about it although there are different models which vary slightly. No model would put that over 10% chance. So Ramsey would get a xA of .05 for that. What’s interesting is that Ramsey’s shot on corner had a higher XG than lacazette. And almost 40% of those that are on target score. Actually, I just rewatched the first half this morning while waiting for something. Upon rewatching I felt like we dominated in a non typical way. It looked ragged at times and Everton should have scored only after beating our offside traps and a couple of mistakes, but so should we really. We had the Monreal chance and Ramsey’s best move of the game actually was to set up lacazette who didn’t get a shot off (that’s where XG fails you). Lacazette got fouled in the box but didn’t go down but was a penalty. Ozil nearly put Ramsey through on goal and a couple of more dangerous crosses went begging. Score could have easily been 2-2 at half. Before the goal there was a handball in the box as well. So even before the goal we had done plenty of work.
What you say seems so obvious to everyone I’ve talked to and read that there has to be more to it. Let’s face it, part of being a manager/coach is more than just putting out the best lineup every week. If PEA gets his hatty against Chelsea then laca probably never starts until the cup Games. Now he’s scored two game changing goals and only fitness or drop in form can warrant a drop that wouldn’t cause issues in the locker room. So that’s ozil, laca and PEA that have to start. This leaves Ramsey. I can only guess that Emery is playing a long game with Rambo. If he benched him, Ramsey is less likely to sign a new deal. So I think he’s giving Ramsey enough time to prove his worth, but I think his time is running out. Iwobi is providing serious pressure on a front four spot and miki is there as well. I think he will stick with Ramsey until the winning streak is over at least—hopefully until Liverpool. It’s furstrating bc we all see it isn’t quite clicking the way it could, but as long as we are grabbing full points while he wrangles with the lineup I’ll be patient.
Everton were in possession (albeit via intercept) - played a poor first time ball out from their own 16 which Ozil controls back to Ramsey, one pass and Laca scores. I agree Arse didn't even need to press. The out ball was played too close to Ozil who intercepted it with one touch to rambo - basically comes out of broken play - so IMO transitional.
I think auba has been off so he should be dropped Imo we should go with a 433 not a 4231 ...........laca Ozil.............mikhi ....Xhaka..Ramsey .........torreira If we have to play a 4231 ..........laca Iwobi..ozil..mikhi .....Xhaka..torreira Imo they are balanced but u can’t play ozil and Ramsey in the 4231 imo
It's kind of funny how many pixels we've killed (including me) wondering about how Ozil and Ramsey are going to fit in the same side. Given yesterday's performance it's kind of moot because neither one would be worth their place.
Fair enough. I've got a case of the Mondays, and was meaner than I had any right to be. I sowwy Crazy150 was using what's called xA, or expected assist. It's exactly the same as expected goals, except that the xA is attributed to the passer. In other words: Key Pass = Pass that leads to a shot xA = xG value of the shots from that pass xG Buildup/xG Chain = contribution to buildup play, based on the xG outcome of the possession I think we use the term subjective differently - most people have xG models, or code that figures out what xG to assign to a given shot. To me, that's objective, in that the same shot in the same circumstances will typically always have the same xG value. Is it more open to interpretation? In the sense that different algorithms will yield different results, yes. But the whole point of doing this analysis is that traditional counting stats (like shots, passes, corners) suck as metrics of performance. I will say this: don't get too caught up on the measurements for specific events. An analytical tool like xG is an abstraction, and abstractions almost have to be leaky. The leaks are random, however, so the value of xG comes out in larger sample sizes (i.e. several games).
That was the second goal. First goal we had them pinned back, cross is cleared to torreira who one touched it to Ramsey who shifts it over to laca—one touch and bang. Second goal was transition I agree. Was good hold up play from laca who plays ozil trhough.
Apology accepted. I was a little confused by Crazy calling Ramsey's pass xG at first but then later correcting it to xA Thanks for the glossary/primer. So since xG/xA have a numerical weight/value, whereas KP is binary (right?), to me that still makes them a bit more subjective. And are the xG/xA algorithms at all complex? Certainly they must be more complex than the binary stats like KP? Or the other traditional ones we both listed earlier? Lastly another factor which implies some subjectivity is that there seem to be different xG/xA models. Isn't that what you allude to (which I've heard on some podcasts as well). Could it be a bit like competing prediction models amongst Economists? Anyway, there's one thing I don't think you have to worry about... me getting too caught up on the measurements of xG or xA! I'm probably just a bit too old-school for that. IOW, Ramsey's pass to Laca was very good (or at least his turn right before the pass!). And I still think it deserves a bit more "statistical credit".
I just rewatched the highlights. You're right the first goal was started by Torreira intercepting a bad pass (I thought Ozil had done that). But that interception by us came immediately after an interception by then. So the whole thing had a bit of a "transitional" feel, which is probably where Jitty's comment came from.
I just watched these. I miss Martin Tyler. He seems to be mostly used for the Monday night matches, which we are rarely in. Maybe not so much the current Martin Tyler who's lost a step or two. But the Martin Tyler from 10-15 years ago, who was ubiquitous, and the top of his trade IMHO, and seemed to show up all the time for our matches. At the time it was rumored he was a closet Gooner, but I never fully believed that. I just think he (and the TV companies) wanted himself to call the best games, the best teams... and back then that was us! Oh well, "all things must pass".
The two interceptions came after literally a full minute of possession by us so it doesn’t feel like transition to me since they never possessed the ball or got out from their own third. After a minute of passing around. Lacazette fired a square ball to Ramsey which the Everton guy stuck a leg out and knocked it to torriera who one touched it to Ramsey. Lacazette is still out wide from where he initiated the whole thing when Ramsey finds him.
I remember that shouting call so well. Even without rewatching that clip. But that doesn't exactly prove his allegiance. You got any reputable links to back up your view?
Ah ok - is it torreira? Its hard to see the number on his back in the Arsenal Player footage Anyway - its from broken play, so IMO a transition as everton do play the ball
Agree. It's a good example of why transitions are so dangerous because the defender who made the original intercept isn't able to recover to get back on to Ramsey The disorganisation only lasts about 2s but that is enough
You mean if Ramsey was able to shoot? About .35. Ozil shooting would be about 0.28 vs 0.36 for the PEA chance, if Ramsey had shot it would have been very similar at 0.35. It wasn't a bad choice at all but shooting still would have been a decent choice— Scott Willis (@scottjwillis) September 24, 2018 Since he didn’t shoot, there is no XG, which is my main gripe with xG. Take Ramsey’s setup for lacazette in the first half. If lacazette takes it first time on his left he’s got a good chance. Not sure of the potential xG value, but it’s similar situation as Monreal’s chance at 0.2. Laca decides to touch it over to his right and the defender tackles so no shot is registered and no xG. It’s a great attacking move from auba, Monreal and Ramsey but is invisible to XG, XA, XG-chain passing. This is a huge limitation in my opinion especially when looking at individual games. So while all those players (except laca) did brilliantly to create what should have been a 20% goal scoring chance, they get no credit in these modern stats. Similar for the actual goal. Ozil sets Ramey up with a 35% shot that he can’t take. Since a shot was eventually taken ozil will get credit via XG-chain, but if the offside was called he wouldn’t and he gets no XA.
Fair point, I guess there is some disorganization but for me 21 players are still in the exact positions as before so i don’t see it as transition.