Power 5 vs. Field

The South Carolina pod had 4 ranked teams in the semis. Now they have the #3 and #4 nationally ranked teams playing for a spot in the Elite Eight after beating #20 and #25. Obviously, the toughest bracket in the tournament.

 

I never bought the notion that the Big 12 was the best conference in the land, according to ARPI. More analytical craziness that didn't meet the eye test. I think the SEC has been significantly underrated and might be, top to bottom, the third strongest conference after ACC and Pac12. It's just my theory--I don't have a ream of numbers to support it!

 

I completely agree.

 

Well, "average" RPI implies that, top to bottom, they had the best results. To delve into that, try comparing the bottommost 4 teams's non-conference results, from each conference. (Losing to each other in-conference doesn't count in the average.) Repeat for the median 3 teams.

ACC is more like a Saturn V, drop all those empty booster tanks and what's left at the top is pretty nimble But remember, for average RPI you do not get to ignore Pitt; in fact, Pitt becomes your standard-bearer(!). Brag them up and convince us they're better than, say, Oregon or Texas. (Hint: use the math, show 1 line per team, everybody nods)

A tournament is inherently the wrong way to discern average conference strength, because tournaments over-reward the outliers. We cannot deduce anything about the average strength of men's tennis in Serbia or Spain from watching two random guys in a final, nor chess in Norway from watching WC Magnus Carlsen defend his title (3-3 thru G6, G7 tomorrow) vs. Russia's Sergey Karjakin.

Don't go overboard in bragging about how your gut snap judgment trumps "the numbers" -- we're all going to get plenty of that in the next couple of months. N.B. We need the numbers because human brains are bad at perceiving statistical relationships.

The universe shall punish you by forcing you to win a funding or promotion argument by ... using your math to disprove his gut instinct. Grit your teeth and learn to love it

 

There 32 mid-majors in the field of 64 or 50%.
In the 1st round mid majors played 22 games vs Power 5.
Their record was 0-20-2 and they were outscored 8-65.

I would say your theory that more mid-majors should get a chance is not founded.

Outside of traditional power Santa Clara, and unseeded mid major hasn't won a game in the 2016 NCAA Tournament.

 

That's a pretty damning record--but at the same time it doesn't seem right giving slots to 4-7 teams just because they are in a big 5 conference.

 

I am not advocating giving anything to anyone. If the goal of the selection committee is to give the at large spots to the best teams not gaining an auto bid, there is little to no on the field support that mid majors are being undervalued. UCONN is a good case in point. Their 4-1 loss to a solid but not spectacular SEC side.

Even advancing side SIUE was outshot 21-8 and 11-4. The SIUE coach did a tremendous job getting his side organized and getting a result but to say it does prove the disparity. They didn't score a goal and defended like mad!

Illinois St v Michigan as well. Michigan was coming in with the worst form of anyone in the country, winners of 1 of their last 9! And still outshot a feisty Illinois St side 2:1.

Did Depaul deserve a shot? They need to schedule more difficult games in the non-conference. I am with you in that OSU, Texas Tech and A&M did not deserve a bid. What mid-majors would you replace them with?

 

Best conferences this year:

1.) ACC (despite no #1 seeds, but FSU had an argument over Florida, after winning the ACC tournament)
2.) Pac 12
3.) SEC
4.) Big Ten (only one team left, but they had a ton of teams make the NCAA tournament = very competitive league)
5.) WCC (BYU, Pepperdine, Santa Clara, etc.)
6.) Big 12 (most overrated conference. WVU is the only very good team, the rest are virtually no better than average)
7.) Big East

 

I thought there were 3 ties...SIUe, Illinois State and South Dakota State.


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I had to laugh, sorry

Tell you what, use your eye test if you want but go see VT , Boston College, Wake and Louisville play. Then tell me if a mid major should ever receive a bid. (by the ways, these teams were not even 4-7 teams in conferance )


thanks

 

Georgetown moves on as in the "field" vs power 5 challenge. I'd like to see it happen!


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It's way more fun having non power 5 teams like Georgetown, Santa Clara, BYU, Marquette, Pepperdine, Memphis, the Ivy's try to put together a run to the college cup.

 

Well your gonna get your chance Santa Clara will play Georgetown for the right to a trip to the College Cup. If the NCAA had any say theyd give it to Santa Clara...the kids could walk to Avaya from their dorm rooms

 

I didn't hear all this griping from Big East fans a number of years ago when they were one of the power conferences.

Just play 4 power conference teams as part of your non-conference schedule and get some good results against them.

 

There's really nothing to debate in a limited supply situation such as women's sports. It's too obvious but we wish it wasn't. In soccer, the coasts will always dominate based on favorable soccer industry economics and denser population. Eastern US has the denser population. cash and more obnoxious parents...the cream players, north and south, choose southeast P5 for climate and natural fields (ACC, SEC). Behind that, in distant third, Cali schools. Stanford recruits from the east, Cal, UCLA, USC get the best of the left coast beyond that. Continental interior and northern US, no shot. Never a shot. Behind the 8-ball economically, population density, etc. So B10, B12, forget it. They'll continue to have to rely on foreigners who just want to play in the US, no thought to where in the US.

WVU won a pyhrric victory (is that the word?). They may have beat UCLA but the weather damaged image, domestic recruiting.

 

this is gonna be one of the ugliest elite 8 match ups ever

Santa Clara has been completely outplayed the last two games....

everything has defied logic to push them into the round of 8

 

That is why soccer is not ice skating. No 10 points for nice play. If your attacking players can not produce, too bad. Stanford and Duke are the best examples.

 

Hey, easy there. Duke is still IN the tournament.....and 3 of our best attacking players are out for the season! I'd say we've done pretty good with what we have left.

 

Remember against UNC? All your best attacking players played....and nothing happaned. Even u have to agree that Duke so far had a vey favorable schedule.

 

Don't remind me! I was there! It was awful. We should have had 4-5 goals on them. I'll give you the "easier" schedule argument. Ill St was a nice 2nd round breather instead of Michigan.

 

So which teams will make the College Cup? My picks are Georgetown, North Carolina, West Virginia and USC. It wouldn't surprise me to see SC beat North Carolina. I hope i can see the Auburn /USC game--might be the most interesting/exciting of the four games.

 

Then pick SC.

 

It could have been worse. Imagine if Zoe Redei huge crossbar actually a goalLOL.
BTW when I post at that time that Duke would have problems with offense everybody said I'm crazy.

 

lol...then it would have been 4-1.