I'm a pessimist by nature. But, it's easy to convince yourself you're going to get the blackjack when you are holding 1 card worth 10 already. But, eventually the house wins. This team has the talent to win games. But, where is the evidence they are going to start now? Though the math does work sorta. We're doing a pretty good job at tieing games. Fire Pauno now and maybe I'll show up Saturday. Though I am going to see Impractical Jokers live instead.
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2019/08/08/armchair-analyst-all-24-mls-teams-ranked-tier-revisited tier 6 is being VERY nice. it is like mls is trying to give chicago fans to read and give them hope, but the fire have done such a sh*t job attracting fans that the people that will read it know it's bullcrap. you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. mls has a big jug of water that it wants fire fans to come to, but the fire management has broken its legs and taped its lips shut.
Depending on results, by Monday, we could be as hisgh as 46% likely to make the playoffs or as low as 3% likely.
Considering we are playing @ Portland (where we haven't ever won) and playing Philadelphia @ home, but they are in 1st place in the east. So I'm leaning towards the 3%.
I see them getting 10-12 points the rest of the way, not enough to sneak in. They'd need 15 minimum. 4 points this week would be great, 3 would keep them alive like you say.
Agree with losing tonight, but a tie (at best) against Philadelphia. So about a 5% chance of make the playoffs.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html According to sports club stats (Currently @ 18.2%): If we win: 26.8% If we tie: 13.1% If we loss: 9.1%
Taylor Twellman probably watches the fire play 3x a year and is probably under that old illusion that objects not in motion just start moving eventually.
Currwnt odds: 21%. A win Sat and the Fire jump to over 40%. A loss, and they fall to 11%. Tie drops them to around 18%. Despite the big drop with the loss, the Fire can probably afford to lose 2 games of the final 6. This is the toughest game on paper. Much more to win from this game than there is to lose. I still predict a stupid, blown lead at the last second, tie in one of the last two games ends the season.
If the Fire win their next 6 games, they would finish with 57 points, probably good enough for about 4th place in the East (base on current ppg numbers). Easy!
IMO Fire can afford to lose 1 and draw 1. Must win is at home against Toronto and maybe away at Orlando, although they have a difficult remaining schedule. Currently playing Atlanta, then @SJ, and vs LAFC. NE coming into town too followed by Houston away. They could be out of the playoff race by the time we play them
Everyonr else is trying to help us. I said it then, and I'll repeat it now: Those dropped 5 pts against the shittiest state in the union (Ohio) are going to end the the season.