Playoff race

My prediction: LA will win the SS. Then we'll beat LA in the MLS Cup playoffs.

The next 4 games are all against playoff contenders:

D.C. United - 09/12/09, at D.C.
Chivas USA - 09/19/09, in Seattle
New England - 09/26/09, at Foxborough
Columbus - 10/03/09, at Columbus

 

What will it take for us to win all 6 of the last 6 for a maximum 18 points? I think we can beat DCU again away, Chivas home, and, maybe, Revs away. Crew away will be difficult. Then we can wrap up 2 wins v. Wiz and Dallas. In my mind, it all comes down to whether or not our team can do two things: 1) finish better and 2) sustain the teamwork and comaraderie following the USOC victory. Oh, and staying card free and healthy.

 

Well, the plus side is that the only Sounder that is in card accumulation danger is Tyrone Marshall, who only has one more game to go to get that dropped to 3 cards. The downside, there is a crap load of Sounders at 3 cards: Osvaldo Alonso, Brad Evans, Patrick Ianni, Nate Jaqua, James Riley, and Peter Vagenas. So, I'm hopeful that the team will be able to survive the last 6 games without getting another suspension.

Outside of that.. winning all six is impossible.. The DCU game is going to be rough without Ljungberg, Columbus is pretty much a guaranteed loss and I think the team will be lucky to come out with a tie. NE would be nice to return the loss at home favor, but yet again, with the way NE is playing right now, a tie is more likely than a loss. Chivas.. I'm gonna say it. Put a game in the win column. Chivas's wheels have fallen off and after dominating them in the last game and losing, the team will be looking for some revenge. KC and Dallas.. Wow.. Seattle has a tendency to play down to the team they are playing and KC and Dallas are prime candidates for this. FCD at home, last game of the season, the team and fans will be at a fever pitch, especially if they have to win to get in.

 

Consider their records against each club so far (listed by best to worst, and listed as W-D-L):

Houston 1-1-0 (MLS), 2-1-0 (All games)
Columbus 0-1-0
Chicago 0-2-0
Los Angeles 1-1-0
Colorado 1-1-0 (MLS), 2-1-0 (All games)
New England 0-0-1
Chivas 0-0-2
----------------------
Salt Lake 1-0-1 (MLS), 2-0-1 (All games)
DC 0-1-0 (MLS), 1-1-0 (All games)
Toronto 1-1-0
Dallas 0-1-0
Kansas City 0-0-1 (MLS), 1-0-1 (All games)
San Jose 2-0-1
New York 1-1-0


That's 3-6-0 (MLS), 5-6-0 (all games) against the current top 5 clubs, compared to 4-3-2 (MLS), 5-3-2 (all games) against the bottom 5, and a wretched 1-1-4 (MLS), 3-1-4 (all games) against the teams in the middle.

 

Competition for the playoffs is tight, with 8 teams fighting for five playoff spots. Here’s a quick look at what remains for those still in the hunt:

Houston (40 points; 5 games remain)
Columbus (39 points; 7 games remain)
Chicago (38 points; 6 games remain)
Los Angeles (38 points; 6 games remain)
Colorado (36 points; 7 games remain)
Seattle (34 points; 6 games remain)
New England (33 points; 8 games remain)
Chivas USA (33 points; 8 games remain)
DC United (33 points; 6 games remain)
Real Salt Lake (33 points; 6 games remain)
Toronto FC (31 points; 6 games remain)

It may come down to Seattle vs RSL for the last playoff spot. New England and Chivas are likely to gain at least 2 points from their games in-hand, and DC United has the CONCACAF fixture congestion to contend with.

I believe Colorado has the easiest schedule (only 3 of 7 remaining opponents are playoff contenders, though they only have 2 home games left) while New England has a rough road (6 of 8 remaining opponents are playoff contenders, including Columbus twice). Chivas USA and Toronto each have 5 games left against playoff contenders, though Chivas plays 5 of their remaining 8 at home.

Here are each of the 8 teams fighting for playoff spots remaining schedules:

Colorado: @ TFC / @ SJ / vs SJ / @ KC / vs NE / @ FCD / @ RSL
Chivas USA: vs NE / @ SSFC / vs NY / @ DCU / vs KC / vs SJ / @ Chi / vs Hou
New England: @CHV /@ NY / vs SSFC / @ FCD / @ CRap / vs CCrew / vs Chi / @ CCrew
Real Salt Lake: vs Chi / @ Hou / @ FCD / vs NY / @ Tor / vs CRap
Seattle: @ DCU / vs CHV / @ NE / @ CCrew / @ KC / vs FCD
LA Galaxy: vs FCD / vs Tor / @ CCrew / vs Chi / @ Hou / vs SJ
Toronto FC: vs CRap / @ LA / @ Chi / vs SJ / vs RSL / @ NY
DC United: vs KC / vs SSFC / vs SJ / vs CHV / vs CCrew / @ KC

For the Sounders to make the playoffs it will likely take 11 points (perhaps more) from their remaining six games - wins at home to FC Dallas and Chivas USA, one road win and two draws from the games at DC United, New England and Kansas City, and probably a loss at Columbus.

SOUNDERS REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Sep 12 @ DC United – DC will have played two games since the Open Cup final, and have 8 games total this month, while the Sounders are rested (only 4 games this month). The Sounders will be without Freddie Ljunberg for this game (yellow-card accumulation).

Sep 19 vs Chivas USA – REVENGE! They’ve beaten the Sounders twice in Los Angeles this season, though Seattle was arguably the better team for most of the 180 minutes. This is the game that will define Seattle’s form for the rest of the season, in my opinion. A strong showing and three points in this game may give them the needed momentum to close out the season on a roll. Wins against DCU and Chivas put Seattle within reach of the playoffs.

Sep 26 at New England – another game with the possibility of vengeance, having lost to New England at home just over two weeks ago, despite being the better team. Shalrie Joseph’s goal has to be in the back of Keller’s mind. Seattle needs to hold off the Revs in the playoff hunt, and getting a win for our Nyassi would be icing. That said, New England needs the points just like the Sounders do, so count on a tough game, where one point is likely all we’ll see.

Oct 3 at Columbus Crew – if Seattle leaves with a point from this game, I think they should be happy. Columbus has been playing the best football in MLS, having gone unbeaten in 8 of their last 9 games, only giving up 5 goals (not including the 5-0 loss to Cruz Azul in CONCACAF) during that span. If that form in league play holds, they’ll be a tough nut to crack. On the outside chance their CONCACAF schedule (an extra three games in September) wears them out or they decide to coast into the playoffs, Seattle could nick a point or three here, and we’d all be very happy. Since that’s not likely, the Sounders need to pick up points elsewhere.

Oct 17 at Kansas City – I love that we get to watch the Sounders play three grudge matches at the end of the season; surely they’ll want revenge on KC for handing them their first ever defeat. This one’s tricky – Seattle can play well on the road but has a habit of not converting the many chances they create. The Wizards just wrapped up a Sounder-ish July/August, only scoring one goal in 8 games, losing 6 games in the process. We may see this one end 0-0. They finally found the back of the net and their winning ways this past weekend (beating New England 4-2) but find themselves with too big of a hurdle, and won’t have much to play for beside pride. A result here is a must, and all three points are a possibility.

Oct 24 vs FC Dallas – the last game of the season. Will the result matter? Will the Sounders control their own destiny? Will F*C* Dallas have anything to give after a frustrating season and the loss of Kenny Cooper? They’ve been playing well lately, splitting 8 games in July and August before drawing DC United at home on Saturday. In all likelihood, our playoff survival will come down to this game, and those three points will be vital.

If you had told me at the beginning of the season the Sounders would be this close to making the playoffs in their first year of existence (*as an MLS franchise*) I’d have been giddier than a schoolboy. As it is I’m nervous as all get-out.

 

"If you had told me at the beginning of the season the Sounders would be this close to making the playoffs in their first year of existence (*as an MLS franchise*) I’d have been giddier than a schoolboy. As it is I’m nervous as all get-out."

I completely agree.

 

However, if you had told me that they would leave as many points on the table as they have ... I'd be highly disappointed. As I said to one of my friends after the UW game who was carping about "improvement" and "going in the right direction" a loss is a loss and there are no moral victories in sports.

 

"On the outside chance their CONCACAF schedule (an extra three games in September) wears them out or they decide to coast into the playoffs, Seattle could nick a point or three here, and we’d all be very happy."

I think you might underestimate how tired the Crew could be by the time they play us. They have games Sept 13, 16, 20, 23, 26, 29, then Seattle Oct 3rd. That's a fairly brutal 7 games in just under 3 weeks, and provides Seattle a golden opportunity to steal a game. We will have played a game a week for 3 weeks leading into that game. Good as they are, I probably go into that game expecting at least a point.

 

You're probably right. But I figure there's too much quality there to begin with, plus they'll be battling Chicago for home-field in the east and will want to hit the playoffs in full stride. I guess it depends on how much rest they give some of their regulars in the CONCACAF games.

 

honestly, i believe we can win all of these games. imo, ony columbus is (at this moment) the clearly better team. and don't forget, we're unbeaten in our last 3 road matches. we've become road warriors.

like the ecs says, "take 'em all!!!" 18 points here we come!

 

NY looks pretty hot now, so don't expect easy wins for these teams.

 

We're totally a hot and cold side. If we get hot we can beat anybody, but that's be a major if. I'm hoping that 11 is a bit high, too. I think we may be able to make it in with 9, but that's unlikely.

 

As of Saturday:

Houston (40 points; 5 games remain)
Columbus (39 points; 7 games remain)
Chicago (39 points; 5 games remain)
Los Angeles (38 points; 6 games remain)
Seattle (37 points; 5 games remain)
Colorado (36 points; 6 games remain)
Real Salt Lake (34 points; 5 games remain)
Toronto FC (34 points; 5 games remain)
New England (33 points; 8 games remain)
Chivas USA (33 points; 8 games remain)
DC United (33 points; 5 games remain)

Galaxy currently tied with Dallas. Chivas plays New England and Houston plays Columbus tomorrow. So we are guaranteed to gain ground on at least two of those teams, possibly all four if they all tie. Colorado, NE and Chivas could all pass us. I'd personally prefer that Chivas beat NE and then we beat Chivas as that gives us a boost vs both but if NE wins, then beating Chivas should be the nail in their coffin.

The win today was huge, but we're still clawing for that 8th playoff spot.

 

Hey Dave, your chart is off a little.
DC has 36 points thanks to the victory over KC in the mid-week. Here's the chart the way I have been updating it over on the "Other teams" thread


East
1) Columbus 42 pts (24 games played)
2) Chicago 39 pts (25)

West
1) Houston 40 pts (26)
2) LA 38 pts (25)

Wild cards (4 teams make playoffs)
Sounders 37 pts (25)
Chivas USA 36 pts (23)
Colorado 36 pts (24)
DC United 36 pts (25)
Salt Lake 34 pts (25)
Toronto 34 pts (25)
New England 33 pts (23)

 

In a sign of just how tightly packed the MLS standings are, the Sounders rocketed up the standings from 9 to 6 and Chivas from 5 to 2.

Code:

Rank     Club          Home PPG   Away PPG   Est. Final Points
1 (1)    Columbus        2.33       1.17           53
2 (5)    Chivas USA      2.27       0.92           48
3 (2)    Houston         2.08       1.07           48
4 (3)    Chicago         1.33       1.77           47
5 (4)    Los Angeles     1.33       1.69           46
6 (9)    Seattle         1.77       1.17           45
7 (6)    Colorado        2.08       0.82           44
8 (8)    D.C. United     1.92       0.93           43
9 (7)    New England     1.75       1.09           43
10 (11)  Toronto FC      1.85       0.83           41
11 (10)  Real Salt Lake  2.00       0.67           40
12 (13)  FC Dallas       1.58       0.67           34
13 (12)  Kansas City     1.09       1.15           34
14 (14)  San Jose        1.50       0.20           26
15 (15)  New York        1.15       0.08           19

 

Sounders fell to 7th in the estimated final standings following this weekend's tie. Even though Colorado tied this weekend as well, their horrific away PPG actually increased while Seattle's quickly falling home PPG dropped a few more fractions of a point. Seattle needs at least 5 points in the final four games to get into the playoffs

Code:

Rank     Club          Home PPG   Away PPG   Est. Final Points
1 (1)    Columbus        2.33       1.15             53
2 (3)    Houston         2.15       1.07             49
3 (8)    Chivas USA      2.27       0.92             48
4 (5)    Los Angeles     1.46       1.69             48
5 (4)    Chicago         1.31       1.77             47
6 (7)    Colorado        2.08       0.83             44
7 (6)    Seattle         1.71       1.17             44
8 (8)    D.C. United     1.92       0.93             43
9 (9)    New England     1.75       1.08             43
10 (11)  Real Salt Lake  2.00       0.62             40
11 (10)  Toronto FC      1.85       0.77             40
12 (13)  Kansas City     1.25       1.15             37
13 (12)  FC Dallas       1.58       0.62             33
14 (14)  San Jose        1.46       0.20             25
15 (15)  New York        1.14       0.08             19

 

Well, your home PPG doesn't matter much anymore since we only have one home game left. In our remaining three away games, if our away PPG is 1.17, so we are expected to have 3.51 pts. How do we do that? Does it mean that One win and one tie puts us in good position?

 

So we've basically got to tie 2 of our 3 away games and win our last home game. 3 ties and a loss or all 4 ties and we're out. If we lose 2 we've got to win the other 2.

 

Yup. Sounders need a minimum of 5 points to make the playoffs.

 

*minimum* of 5 points like you said too, not "just" five points. yikes, this will be close

 

Well, I don't want to be in that position. And I think Sigi doesn't want it too.

We want to score points on the road. We don't want them to come home in a must win situation.