Off-topic! The reason I give up commenting recently is because most of us like to compare personal stats of players from different eras, playing in different roles, rules, pitch qualities, football kits, against different opponents, etc. I really have no ideas how to join the discussion. Even statistically comparing players in the same era like Messi and CRonaldo is very difficult to conclude IMO. So, if I have to assess the performance of a player, I tend to look at his skills and talent rather than anything else. With such criteria, I rate Neymar very highly.
I don't really think that's fair or makes a lot of sense to be honest mate. Because non-blocked shots result from chances created. If Messi creates 10 more really good chances then Argentina have 10 more non-blocked shots, so I don't feel that judging his chances created by the number of non-blocked shots seems right. I hope you understand, and I hope I'm saying this in a pleasant manner just as an observation and if I am mis-understanding I apologise in advance (just feeling the need to bring back some mutual politeness in the thread as it's in danger of going too far the opposite way IMO and I'm not trying to assign blame for that!).
I do largely feel like this too mate, although I suppose 'skills and talent' maybe under-does it in terms of definition as obviously players can be very effective without being the most skilful and there are different types of player with different sorts of contributions (I try not to be biased, but if anything I'm sure I'd be more inclined towards the skilled/talented/creative ones I guess though). I do see why people look back and analyse stats, but it's not really my forte and I also don't feel big conclusions should be drawn from them especially from times long ago which we didn't live through (and with more limited stats - no 'chances created', 'successful dribbles' and all that sort of thing and with it being harder to get a gauge on which matches a players goals or general play made the difference and at what point in those matches...for a majority of the matches anyway).
Even though I have done my fair share of comparisons between current and older players, ultimately, I don't disagree with the above sentiments and at times have even strongly resonated with them. Since IMHO beyond a certain point, the comparisons or conclusions (in case of older players) simply lack any basis in empirical evidence. Thanks for your support guys. (just to add on to what you mentioned above, @PDG1978 - The blocked shots should be counted either for both or not for both, but, I'm not so sure that the shot numbers mentioned in that google document exclude such shots to begin with. In any case, 115 shots is probably too high an estimate to begin with since Pele's shots taken rate isn't going to be replicated by the other 4 starters, just like Messi's isn't for Argentina. So whichever way one dices it, Pele is still going to come out on top IMO. @Pipiolo - The numbers from the link I shared comparing Barcelona with and without Messi should actually check out, also its not that Messi doesn't play against sub-par opposition. Furthermore, this same point of Barcelona doing equally well without Messi has been made in articles from different sources, for his earlier layoffs as well IIRC. In any case, its not like I asked the site in question to make up and post those numbers last year, knowing that I could use them now). Anyway, I think its best to just let things go at this point and move on.
Messi WC14 created more great chance's than Pele WC70, and he did that by beating 3 times the players. I hope you get that. http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/maradona-86-vs-messi-14.2008702/page-79#post-31151587 http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/maradona-86-vs-messi-14.2008702/page-74#post-31132037
Oh that is a pity @Estel . I see statistics as very useful, at least and in particular for debunking popular claims. Something as 'skill' and 'talent' are by the layman also totally useless and subjectively applied concepts. What we as always see is that users or snobs like stats (no matter how twisted and bad applied) when it fits preconceptions but don't like it when the road takes the wrong turn. I did find it interesting to see how team gpg went up before some stars arrived (as such I think Once his rebuttal was not correct, because it did take roughly the team mates into account).
Not sure if I understand Puck. My apologies for saying this for the nth time, but you are a difficult guy to understand, for me at least. In any case, is your above note regarding the following statement that I made? - "I don't disagree with the above sentiments and at times have even strongly resonated with them. Since IMHO beyond a certain point, the comparisons or conclusions (in case of older players) simply lack any basis in empirical evidence." If so, then as I mentioned, my resonating with United_xxx's observations mostly occurs only after going 'beyond a certain point' and I do try to ensure that said point is not simply the one where stats stop fitting my pre-conceptions, but more often one where statistical analysis no longer provides very clear conclusions.
Maybe we shouldn't argue about all of that again mate - we know how we each feel after that thread ran it's course don't we.
I just mean that inevitably before long we'd be back to repeating our thoughts about when a wobbly pass is a bad pass, when 10 players under the ball make a goal special, when team edge is reduced by opposition approach and bad form of team-mates leads by default to seemingly bad form of a player etc etc. I'm partly responsible for leading this thread into a general Messi vs Pele direction again already I suppose!
That is not true and I feel that you take this stance only because it helps you argue against the South American greats that you loathe.
..... and where is the rest of the argument? The reasoning that demonstrates it is not true? Otherwise this is just shallow without purpose.
Right, but we don't have blocked shot data for 1970. So, taking out blocked shots is the best we can do. It's certainly better than comparing one with blocked shots to another without. In any case, the only way taking out blocked shots really biases the data is if one of these teams had a significantly higher percent of their shots be blocked than the other (for instance, add 50% onto both the non-blocked shot numbers and you'd come out to the same adjusted rate for Pelé). If they have the same percent of blocked shots, then the ratio I used to mark down Pelé's chances created would come out exactly the same. I don't think there's any particular reason to believe that Argentina had a far higher percent of their shots blocked than Brazil. So there's no real reason to believe that what I gave isn't real close to what it would be if we did know the blocked shot numbers.
Hmm, maybe we lost each other. I know firstly you were expanding on or adjusting something Estel said, and I guess you are suggesting it was harder for Argentina to create clear chances in 2014 than Brazil in 1970 which could be true to an extent, but it is where I am very unsure and like I say if Argentina (Messi himself and/or others) create more clear openings they have more non-blocked shots and I can't look past that when watching the games it didn't seem they/he were creating as much as they might have done or as much as could be feasible for a team. I think this is an instance where I wouldn't put too much weight behind percentage of 'chances created' attributed to a single player in relation to his team-mates, especially compared to Brazil 1970 who had many players who would be being involved in creating chances (I know that points to a team edge in Bada Bing's theory too, but I'm just not that comfortable with manipulating stats to downgrade Pele's chances created but I suppose it comes back to the limitation of stats too in that in football not every chance created is the same, just like not every supposed successful dribble, not every successful pass etc etc).
That is not remotely what I said, liar. "Something as 'skill' and 'talent' are by the layman also totally useless and subjectively applied concepts." Andres Iniesta being the model example. You don't even read what I said. Even professional scouts struggle with applying the concepts. Yes, the skill to handball, to drug (courtesy of Fifa chum Grondona) and what more also help. Pelé needed none of it.
This was something that crossed my mind initially as well. Thus IMO, what you mention above is definitely another way to look at the whole analysis i.e. downgrading chances created of a player more successful with that measure in one tournament, on the basis of shots per game made by a team in another tournament which was not so successful in offensive third, might be a very wrong thing to do. One could say that in a knockout tournament wherein half the games you play have the possibility to "open up" depending on whether you are able to get that initial breakthrough for your team, shots per game that one's team ends up taking might actually be positively influenced by successful chance creation. A player like Pele who created so many more chances (and got 6 assists to boot), can definitely make a case for positively impacting his team's shots per game through his chance creation. Furthermore, and maybe most importantly, it doesn't look as if the higher shots per game of the Brazilian team has resulted in any of Pele's other teammates listed in that google doc getting an equally high chance creation rate. Something that should have happened if Pele's chance creation was simply inflated.
Yeah, that's the sort of thing I'm thinking - that a low number of non-blocked shots is to some extent a by-product of not creating a lot of clear opportunities.
Off topic. What kind of setup do you foresee Argentina going with in the future (maybe in Russia 2018) to correct this issue? For the amount of attacking talent they have (Messi, Di Maria, Higuain, Aguero, Dybala, Lavezzi, Pastore), how do you see them leveraging it to its fullest?
Hmm, probably others would have a better idea but I'd have to guess something similar to how they played it in the Copa America perhaps. Brazil will be interesting too as is being discussed a bit on some threads - how many attacking/ball-playing players will they play and suchlike.
Ok. Brazil, hmm, didn't know there was any discussion needed on that front. For Brazil, it should be as simple as, pass the ball to Neymar and see him score.
Maybe! Or maybe he'd need some help to go very far (plus when he got injured in 2014 it sort of ruined their chances automatically). It'll be interesting to see how he does in the next major NT tournaments though yeah definitely.
Yes, I can see you said something completely different... I could have reacted the same way with this, by the way... Andres Iniesta is a model example of an awesome player.
Yes, I agree with that. You'll notice that's why my original comparison used the average shots made in each World Cup overall, not the average by their particular teams. Pelé still came out behind in adjusted chances created. It was @Estel who brought up Argentina and Brazil's particular shots. Since Estel brought it up, I explained why it didn't support Estel's point.
The spreadsheet is derived from OPTA data. OPTA data does not include blocked shots. Yeah, except that that sample used includes 2 defenders, 2 midfielders, and 2 attackers. Seems pretty balanced and representative actually. For instance, it includes Pelé, but it also includes Brito, who took 0 shots. Nope. Pelé's numbers are affirmatively lower when you adjust it down. I've adjusted it based on the number of shots their teams made, and I've adjusted it based on the number of shots made overall in their respective World Cups. In both cases, Pelé comes out lower. Obviously, we aren't sure exactly how many shots Brazil themselves took, since we don't have all their player data or their blocked shot data. But we've made reasonable approximations. In fact, the approximation of Brazil's total shots came from you. And Pelé has come in significantly below Messi. There's enough info we don't know that I can't say 100% for certain that I'm right, but there's literally no reason for you to believe you're correct that "whichever way one dices it, Pele is still going to come out on top." Also, perhaps more importantly, the subject of Pelé creating chances is plainly not on topic.