OFC World Cup/Olympic qualifiers

Discussion in 'Women's World Cup' started by toad455, Aug 24, 2018.

  1. sbahnhof

    sbahnhof Member+

    Nov 21, 2016
    Aotearoa
    Two injury-time goals by New Zealand for 6-0 – they must have the extra tournament ranking points in mind. (How big a victory would the formula expect?)

    Day 5 match report, Thursday
    - https://www.radionz.co.nz/internati...l-semi-final-spots-in-ofc-women-s-nations-cup (Archived)

    And highlights: NZ v Cook Islands and Fiji v Tonga.

    We didn't mention much about Tonga's players, so here they are.



    If they could even get a fraction of this support, they'd do great...



    Today (Sat) PNG booked their semifinal place with a 3-1 win over Tahiti in Koné, after Tahiti had taken an early lead through Hanihei Taumaa. New Caledonia are also on their way through in 2nd place, beating Samoa 2-0
     
    blissett and Lechus7 repped this.
  2. sbahnhof

    sbahnhof Member+

    Nov 21, 2016
    Aotearoa
    Lechus7 and blissett repped this.
  3. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    Today
    Group B
    New Zealand 10 - Fiji 0
    Tonga 1- Cook Islands 0

    SEMIS
    Nov. 28
    New Zealand vs. New Caledonia
    Papua New Guinea vs. Fiji
     
    Lechus7 and blissett repped this.
  4. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    What is wrong with New Zealand?
    Their margin of victory is down in this year's qualification.
     
  5. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    What exactly do you mean by "extra tournament ranking points"? I don't know about anything within OFC, but if you're talking FIFA rankings, then GD in this tournament doesn't mean much of anything for NZL unless they get played to a close game.

    Now, the difference between a 4-0 win and a 6-0 win is the difference between 0.970 and 0.990 - so no matter what the expected result is, you're talking about a difference that's just 2% of the 45pts available in WWCQ matches, or 0.9pts. That's not going to nudge much, though certainly would be nice to shift a loss of 0.4pts to a gain of 0.5pts.

    Now, NZL's FIFA rating is more than 500pts ahead of anyone else's in the tournament, so even in their "worst" match-up, their expected result is 0.947 out of 1.0, and usually will be closer to 0.990 out of 1.0. The FIFA ranking formula can only give a maximum actual result of 0.990, so if NZL wants to actually gain any points from this tournament, they need to have those 6+ blowouts all-around except when they face Fiji (there, a 3-0 win will suffice to earn them marginal points, and anything 6+ could get them a "whopping" 2pts! We're dealing with very small numbers here).
     
    sbahnhof and blissett repped this.
  6. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Teams are improving ...
     
  7. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    Yes, but New Zealand should also be improving.
    I guess you could say those other teams have "more to gain" in their improvement.
    But Zoo Nealand has the resources they don't have to continue improving as well.
     
  8. sbahnhof

    sbahnhof Member+

    Nov 21, 2016
    Aotearoa
    "They're trying harder than they would if it was a friendly."

    That's all.
     
  9. sbahnhof

    sbahnhof Member+

    Nov 21, 2016
    Aotearoa

    Simultaneous kickoffs, at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday. The full matches are streaming on mycujoo, PNG v Fiji and NZ v NC. The coverage has been good and informative so far - just not sure who the main commentators are. 'Gordon' and 'Lavinia'. These 2 games are the only ones being played outside the main island (Grande Terre), playing on Lifou and Maré. I think they said the teams are flying in and out on the day of the match.

    Fiji are unlikely to overhaul PNG (preview here), but it should be the less mismatched of the 2 semi-finals. This was Fiji's captain Jotivini Tabua earlier in the tournament:

     
  10. sbahnhof

    sbahnhof Member+

    Nov 21, 2016
    Aotearoa
    Pardon me, Fiji are thrashing PNG in the semi-final.

    Coming back from a goal down, Fiji's Trina Davis has scored two and Fiji have also had a penalty saved. PNG's advantage from past tournaments has just been wiped out – they're usually quite a lot higher ranked than the other Pacific countries, but maybe not for long.

    Is that Christophe Gamel? He got a mention from Trina Davis in an interview this week – he was the first one she contacted about becoming a Fiji player.

    - https://footballoceania.com/2018/11...na-davis-wants-to-take-fiji-to-the-world-cup/ (Archived)
     
    blissett repped this.
  11. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Some months ago, at the beginning of the qualifiers, this American-born Fijian player had already made a sensation and scored some substantial goals.
    It looks like her presence was one of the factor that took Fiji on a completely different level (although not enough yet, apparently, to even remotely compete with New Zealand: even the better developing teams, still use to lose to New Zealand by a 6+ margin, even 10 in the case of Fiji, maybe because they wanted to try and play an open game? Or the same difference in competence would have been there anyway? :coffee:).
     
  12. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    Semifinals
    Fiji 5 - Papua New Guinea 1
    New Zealand 8 - New Caledonia 0

    Final
    Dec. 1
    Fiji vs. New Zealand
     
  13. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Considering that last two major tournaments I can find for Fiji - 2010 OFC championship and 2015 Pacific games - the results here certainly are surprising! Those last two tournaments saw Fiji go 0W-2D-3L. I guess the thing that might really be going in their favor - since I'm always a little skeptical of single-player influence - is that they were the only team in this field of 8 that actually had to qualify for the tournament, so they might be more in-form than PNG or any of the other teams in the field, even if the only teams they beat in qualifying were the absolute lowest minnows in OFC. (Oddly, Fiji were already #3 in the region based on FIFA rating, but their previous competition records apparently were bad enough to put them in the bottom four in OFC's eyes! That certainly looks like a mistake now.)
     
    sbahnhof and blissett repped this.
  14. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    yes, it is him, I bumped into him recently at the FIFA football conference in London that reviewed the 2018 World cup.
     
    sbahnhof and blissett repped this.
  15. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    New Zealand qualifies after defeating Fiji 8-0 in the OFC Final.

    Third Place: Papua New Guinea 7 - New Caledonia 1

    New Zealand won each game by a margin 8.5 goals. The "smallest" win was 6-0 over the Cook Islands. New Zealand was never tested during this tournament.
     
    blissett repped this.
  16. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    The parity is growing a "tad" bit stronger now in OFC.
    At this rate, New Zealand will finally not qualify for the WWC in 2107.
    It'll be interesting to see how the Football Ferns react after losing in OFC then.
    We're now only about 88 years away from OFC Qualification in late 2106.
     
    blissett repped this.
  17. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    He is definitely helping. Nice to see a MNT coach giving time to help the WNT.
     
    sbahnhof and blissett repped this.
  18. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Here I am with Christophe at the FIFA event. Obviously, I have hidden my face no doxing needed.
     

    Attached Files:

    blissett repped this.
  19. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    Just more evident that New Zealand should be forced into a playoff against someone from AFC or CAF. If the 2023 WWC is in Japan or Australia, the births should be

    Host(1)
    AFC(5.5)
    UEFA(8)
    CAF(3)
    CONCACAF (3.5)
    CONMEBOL(2.5)
    OFC(.5)
     
    blissett and Lechus7 repped this.
  20. sbahnhof

    sbahnhof Member+

    Nov 21, 2016
    Aotearoa
    Um, since the then world no.64 team qualified via a different joke tournament, then the OFC should get 1.5 or 2 places :D Just kidding. But, again, NZ would be happy with a playoff. They haven't got many big international friendlies atm.

    So, after the OFC tournament, here are the new FIFA rankings - December 2018:

    19 [​IMG] New Zealand (+1) 1819pts
    49 [​IMG] Papua New Guinea (RE) 1479pts
    72 [​IMG] Fiji (+9) 1350pts
    86 [​IMG] Tonga (RE) 1249pts
    90 [​IMG] New Caledonia (RE) 1239pts
    97 [​IMG] Tahiti (French Polynesia) (RE) 1218pts


    Semi-final highlights: Fiji's fine victory

    Papua New Guinea (yellow) v Fiji (blue), 28 Nov.




    Other vids: Semi-final: NZ v New Caledonia - Third-place: PNG v New Caledonia - Final: NZ v Fiji

    Day 10 match reports - semi-finals
    - www.oceaniafootball.com/31857-2 (Archived)

    Day 13 match report - final
    - oceaniafootball.com/new-zealand-complete-line-up-for-france-2019 (Archived)

    [​IMG]
    It's a bigger trophy than the World Cup, I'm just saying
    (photo: Phototek.co.nz / oceaniafootball)

     
    blissett and Lechus7 repped this.

Share This Page