Unless you're saying that any of those specific decisions were wrong that is, again, a meaningless phrase. It could be argued that not agreeing to stand down from the role of temporary PM, demanded by Jo Swinson, was a mistake but by then we'd already changed our position to accepting a 2nd referendum which had been a long term demand of several people on here IIRC, (mentioning no names, of course). In all honesty the biggest problem with Corbyn wasn't the decisions he'd made recently... it was the ones he'd made many, many years ago, to wit... https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-corbyn-on-northern-ireland But, as I said, I'm coming around to the conclusion that it simply might not be possible to have a left-wing labour government elected in this country because of our electoral system and the presence of other anti-tory parties giving the voters an alternative if our policies 'frighten the horses'. So while we could certainly have done better the chances of anyone 'doing a Jacinda' is probably low over here. Although, obviously, the rather odd manifesto was a negative and the conference inspired decision to reverse course on a 2nd referendum was a total turn-off for many voters in leave areas.
During the election I had my 'vote labour' sticker on my window and a delivery drivers was walking past and, as he did so, he said 'fecking labour' with a scowl. He was a delivery driver for, you guessed it.. Amazon
How often are UK constituencies redrawn and re-allocated? If people are moving out of certain areas, it sounds like they could get pretty uneven in population?
That's a bit of a bone of contention because labour and others have resisted redrawing the constituency boundaries for quite a while now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies The thing is there was an increase in the number of voters when the brexit referendum was announced and they, (and some other changes), weren't included in the 'new' data IIRC.
So constituencies are drawn based on voters and not actual population? That seems.. Interesting. I wonder if Labour is more open to it now?
It's always been the number of registered voters I believe. I don't think it makes any difference now because the tories will likely press ahead despite complaints from us and the LibDems who are also against it... or were. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth...Political_and_economic_impact_and_controversy
??? Not sure why you say that. The main body are the civil servants and council staff making the decisions. The politicians say is normally quite limited. It's actually been an aberration for labour and the libdems to slow down the procedure this time and, even then, it's only been a matter of 'putting it off'. It's also the case that the areas are large enough for it to be quite hard for any particular party to gain an advantage. Well, that's the situation for national constituencies anyway. The borough and parish/town ones are a lot smaller, obviously, but then the boroughs are lumped together into larger areas, (usually quite a bit bigger than the constituencies, actually), so it's hard for any particular party to gain an advantage. Also, of course, because political power tends to go back and forth between parties nationally they don't tend to try and force much of an advantage because they know it will go the other way next time.
So basically the idea of labour leave voters flocking to vote tory is bullshit The Tories turned out their base, but actually only marginally better than 2017 which was regarded as a disaster Meanwhile Labour turnout collapsed
It's possible some Labour voters went Tory. People who cannot stomach not voting, hated Corbyn, and voted Leave. It's far more likely Labour voters sat on their hands because Corbyn is radioactive.
This was in the Indi a week ago... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...tion-brexit-leave-corbyn-voting-a9244931.html I can probably generate some data for this if you give me a few days but it will only be local and only in those areas we normally do well in... but it should be a guide.
FYP But I suspect it's a combination of a few things, actually, including a piss-poor campaign, a cloth-eared response to what voters wanted in general, (free broadband???), and Corbyn's 'baggage', (his alleged 'support' for IRA terrorism was mentioned on the doorstep on quite a few occasions).
Tons of people on the radio, television, and in the halls of Parliament the past few days. Boris Johnson said that Northern Labour voters that had voted Conservative needed to be "kept." It's a part of his populist pitch. It's being stated everywhere.
Ah, yeah. I thought you meant on here. A few people were saying that and some were simply included in our 'against' classification, (for obvious reasons), but until we get the marked reg we won't know how many people actually turned out. Our thoughts, subjectively, is that it was mainly a matter of our lot not bothering but also, (and this we won't have much data for as they're not people we'd be contacting this time), is that it might have been people we'd class as non-voters which, presumably, were the folks that voted in the referendum but didn't turn out for the 2017 GE. So I agree... there's more data still to come in other than the turn-out figures we already know.
🚨 EXCLUSIVE: The Sunday Times has obtained Labour's secret list of target seats for the electionIt reveals Murphy and Milne fought "deranged" offensive campaign focused on Tory Leave seatsHidden from staff, this version was updated 15th Nov and leaked by a trade union (1/5) pic.twitter.com/OALmhuSS0R— Gabriel Pogrund (@Gabriel_Pogrund) December 21, 2019 LOL they decided to ignore political scientists and got crushed.
The dude does mention the source, the Sunday times, but as far as I can tell, he never links to the original website. He works for the Sunday times, you would thin he would want to give people a chance to follow up and click on a link that directs to the story.
It says it was 'leaked by a trade union' so I doubt they'd want to claim any 'credit' for releasing the information... y'know, without mentioning any names of course...
I think it's more to do with the fact that they ignored everyone and only listened to people who already agreed with them. Many others who weren't political scientists tried as well. TBH, I could have told them what the reaction would be back in May when we were canvassing for the local elections. We had to keep stressing, over and over, 'Look... you're ONLY voting for the local council, FORGET the national politics'. That's generally not a good sign But this guy, who I'm sure you're aware of, has an interesting take on all this although some of his conclusions would generally be thought to be... 'problematic', shall we say. This was his take after we'd voted to leave the EU which covers many of the same points. So maybe it comes back to the point about us being squeezed by our FPTP electoral system, the split of the anti-tory vote AND the fall in the number of working class voters. Of course, even that is forgetting the fact that, as he says, we've become accustomed to ignoring those people when they express views we find uncomfortable or inappropriate, relying on lazy stereotypes to dismiss them.
Would you mind going back through every single general election since World War 2 and tell me how many more or fewer seats Labour would have received under proportional representation rules? A simple, Israel-style system will do. I have already done this and know the answer, but I want to see you do it.
I am old enough to remember a poster who defended the local election results by saying "they aren't predictive of general election results" or something. Come to think of it...YOU were that poster. Wowza!
Strangely, I don't actually have to do what you tell me to do. Odd, I know But I will just observe that... 1. People vote in the system that is used in that particular election so you can't just extrapolate from the existing data. Even the dimmest bulb should have realised THAT! 2. I tend to favour a version of the AV system.