Given they play Juventus, which seems within their reach, and the final can go any which way... It's not that unlikely.
Mbappe is an outside bet. Falcao is not perceived as an elite player. Players like Lemar, Silva, Mendy as perceived as verging on elite. While Mbappe story (a sub just a few months ago, now the best scoring rate in Europe with key goals in the CL and Ligue 1), has made his rise meteoric. I'm not entirely convinced by him, but he has the story. He's stormed onto the scene even more forcefully than the 18 year old Messi. And when in doubt consult the bookies: Ronaldo 5/4 Messi 7/4 (was 11/2 just on Saturday) Neymar 10/1 Luis Suarez 12/1 Antoine Griezmann 16/1 Gareth Bale 16/1 Paulo Dybala 16/1 Kylian Mbappe 20/1 Everyone else is out of the picture - 33/1 or lower (Falcao is 300/1). Once again it looks like a two horse race between CR7 and Messi. The only thing that in my opinion can change anything is the CL race (Griezmann, Dybala, Mbappe, maybe Bale), the La Liga race (Messi) and Confed Cup (a terrible performance by Ronaldo). Neymar and Suarez have no chance whatsoever, especially not over Messi. BTW In all honesty how the hell is Luis Suarez at 12/1???
Because he is perceived as a top 5 player in the world, and if you have that reputation, you will always have an outside shot at the Ballon D'Or because this award relies heavily on player reputation and supporting the status quo.
Is Buffon out of the picture? I feel/read there is a big push going on for him. For his entire career that would not be undeserved.
Juventus will push either him or Dybala. On NicerOdds he is only behind CR7, Messi, Neymar, Suarez, Bale... http://m.nicerodds.co.uk/fifa-ballon-d-or I don't know why Suarez and Bale are that high
You are of the opinion that Bale has been amongst the five best players in the world? Or Suarez for that matter?
I meant win, will they beat Juventus and then proably Real also? That will be tough but I would love to see that, he makes my top ten and could be top five but to win is a stretch.
I would love it and honestly think he would be a deserving winner. But I can only see this happening if Juventus win the CL with Buffon putting in a few legendary GK performances.
Typical leadleader always changing the goalpost just to fit his agenda Can you show me a single analyst who has Said that big game performances by playmakers/creative forwards are more significant than those by strikers and so called goalpoachers? Eusebio vs North Korea in 66 is widely considered to be a top 3-5 all time individual performance in world cup history (scoring 4 goals to singlehandedly overturn a 3 goal deficit) mvb vs USSR in the final of euro 88 has gone down as a iconic and legendary big game performance pretty much on the basis of one spectacular moment Gerd mullers catalogue of goals spread across every big game worth mentioning has solidified his position as arguably the greatest big game goalscorer that ever lived (post war era) Etc...... Isolating c.Ronaldo's performance vs Bayern Munich as if it is the only example of a big game performance in his career is utterly ridiculous and disingenuous His crucial intervention against Bayern Munich is part of a pattern that goes back 10 long seasons Just how does a player who has scored the joint most combined goals in champions league QF,SF and finals not go down in your book as a big game performer (a joint record he holds with the great don Alfredo) Thomas Muller scored 3 goals against Barcelona in 2 SF matches And lewandowski scored 4 in a single game against los blancos in the 12)13 semi Bravo!!!! C.Ronaldo has scored 10 goals and 1 assist in 6 champions league semi final and quarter final games against a Bayern Munich team that is arguably the 2nd or 3rd greatest club side of the past 10 years A decade ago in 2006/07 at only 22 years old he created 6 goals and completed several dribbling runs(over 12 dribbles over both legs) against Roma in the champions league quarter final (mind you a Roma side that finished 2nd place in a top 5 major European league something that neither Messi or ronaldinho have never done in their entire careers and that is a fact
Messi had 10 completed dribbles vs Madrid in the CL semi finals in 10/11 and another 10 vs Man United in the final proper. The immediate post calciopoli Serie A was really only a top 5 league by name. Besides losing top players, Juve were demoted and Milan had a points hit. What did Ronaldo do vs Milan that same season? A team that finished behind the same Roma?
@Edhardy Nothing you have said here has detracted even a single fact I have presented Ronaldo created 6 goals against Roma in the champions league Qf (2 goals 1 assist and 3 pre assists) Messi scored once in the 10/11 final and had minimal involvement in the 3rd were he owned Nani on the wing then lost possession leaving it to villa to finish from a not so easy position And in the 10/11 semi he scored a top 3 all time CL goal but still did not put a all round performance that was even remotely comparable to Ronaldo's vs roma I reiterate once more that CR7 was completely and utterly devastating continuously tormenting Roma's defenders and to top it of his end product was completely ridiculous (Just who creates 6 goals, many more chances that weren't finished of and over 12 completed dribbles in a champions league quarter final-and at only 21-22 years You may say Messi but Bayern Leverkusen is no Roma (even in the immediate aftermath of the post calciopoli era) Note: Your failed logic regarding Ronaldo not turning up against a Milan side that finished marginally behind Roma (11 points) is completely misleading Ronaldo did not fail against Milan he did in fact score the first goal and had a very positive first performance It was in the away leg that gattuso and Co completely neutralized him Stuff like this happens and In football it is known as having an "off game" something which most elite professionals experience at one point or another For example: Why did ronaldinho in the 2005/06 CL QF supposedly Excel against a Chelsea side that won the the EPL title but then completely fail in the final against an arsenal side that finished 31 points behind the team he had purportedly dismantled only games before Note I do not agree with the failed line of reasoning shown above for the simple reason that great league form is not neccesarily indicative of the same in the CL (Leicester this season and Chelsea in 11/12 are 2 recent examples of this) @Edhardy
It's freaking Roma, when have they done a thing in the CL ? They are completely irrelevant . QF means nothing . Real Madrid once played APOEL on the quarters .
Fine if CL QF means nothing we can completely disregard Messi vs arsenal 09/10, dinho vs Chelsea 05/06,r9 vs Manchester united 02/03 etc as completely irrelevant performances Or does your logic apply only to opposition teams drawn by real Madrid any/or club teams affiliated to Cristiano Ronaldo?
Not saying it doesn't mean anything, it was a great performance, but geez, it's Roma. All I am saying is don't make them out to be a tougher opposition than they were. With respect to QF, yes you do have to consider the opponent. It doesn't take a genius to see that in the QFs you can have a pretty wide array of quality of the teams. I just told you RM played APOEL one season.
Projection as usual. Somehow, the Portuguese posters, plus the same Messi haters who aren't necessarily Portuguese, are not obsessive, despite the fact that they are in fact obsessive and spin any discussion into a debate of how underappreciated and 'unlucky' CR7 has been in his career. Bottom line: you are a CR7 fanboy and most of the neutral forumers know it. Furthermore, who exactly are the rational forumers in your opinion? Please do inform me, how many of the 'rational forumers' agrees with you that Messi is going downhill so early?? I bet I can count with one hand, the percentage of 'rational forumers' who also coincidentally happen to be CR7 fanboys to some degree.
Straw man, as usual. I am not talking about 'significance' of performance, I am talking about 'quality' of performance. The Ballon d'Or is supposed to be awarded to the 'best' player, not the most 'significant' player. Bottom line: significance relies heavily on the achievements of the team (e.g. Ramos scoring a 90th minute equalizer in the CL Final), which is one of the many reasons why significance is a very inconsistent measure for quality. If we differentiate between 'creative' players, i.e. players who can dribble, score, and pass, compared to 'poacher strikers' type players, i.e. players who mainly just score goals, but barely ever dribble or make any impressive pass, etc. The Ballon d'Or consistently demonstrates the following: Ronaldo 1997 (creative), Zidane 1998 (creative), Rivaldo 1999 (creative), Luis Figo 2000 (creative), Michael Owen 2001 (striker), Ronaldo 2002 (striker), Nedved 2003 (creative), Shevchenko 2004 (striker), Ronaldinho 2005 (creative), Cannavaro 2006 (defender), Kaka 2007 (creative), Ronaldo 2008 (creative), Messi 2009 (creative), Messi 2010 (creative), Messi 2011 (creative), Messi 2012 (creative), Ronaldo 2013 (creative), Ronaldo 2014 (striker), Messi 2015 (creative), Ronaldo (striker). Bottom line: there is a HUGE bias in favor of players who can dribble + score goals + produce great passes, which Cristiano Ronaldo has not done since 2015 at the very least. Poacher strikers have always tended to be 'significant' in the big games, but Raul Gonzalez never was hyped as a serious Ballon d'Or candidate purely as a result of his big goals in big CL games, nor was Pippo Inzaghi, nor was Didier Drogba, etc. Cristiano Ronaldo is the only poacher who gets the insane hype that he gets, it is a 'fashion' without precedent in the history of this sport. 1. Ronaldo 2002/03 scored a goal vs. Juventus in the Semi Finals, produced a PK vs. Juventus in the Semi Finals, scored 3 goals in an away game vs. Manchester United (Quarter Finals), but he never was hyped as a clear candidate for the 2003 Ballon d'Or. In fact, Ronaldo finished in 11th place in the Ballon d'Or, and Ronaldo could still produce amazing dribbling runs (that Ronaldo 2017 could only dream of). And yet, somehow, Ronaldo 2016/17 can score less open-play goals than Ronaldo 2002/03, much less dribbling runs than Ronaldo 2002/03, but still be regarded as "miles ahead of everyone else." I just cannot remember another striker quite as overrated as Cristiano Ronaldo currently is. 2. Robert Lewandowski scored 4 goals in ONE GAME vs. Real Madrid 2012/13, in the Semi Finals, directly against Cristiano Ronaldo's team, and to make matters worse, Borussia Dortmund eliminated Real Madrid. Was Lewandowski "miles ahead of Ronaldo" as a result of one single Semi Final game? That's literally what happened with Ronaldo 2016/17, who apparently is "miles ahead of Messi" on the basis of one single game. For some reason, when players not named Ronaldo do it - it's just nothing to talk about, is it? 3. Thomas Muller scored 3 goals + one assist vs. Barcelona 2012/13, in the Semi Finals, and Bayern Munich went on to win the CL Final. Was Thomas Muller immediately compared with Messi 2013? 4. Inzaghi scored his fair share of 'significant' goals, but nobody in their right mind would say that Inzaghi's 'significant' performances were of the same quality as Pirlo or Kaka or Ronaldinho. 5. Drogba scored his fair share of 'significant' goals, but nobody in their right mind would say that Drogba's 'significant' performances were of the same quality as Messi 2012, Ronaldo 2008, Ronaldinho 2006, Kaka 2007, etc.
2013 Ronaldo could still be classified as a creative forward(a player who can Score any type of goal,a player could still dribble with enough consistency to define him as a dribbling threat (particularly in 2012/13 and in certain matches in the first half of the 13/14 CL season also inc his performance vs schalke in the 2nd round( home and away) And also as player who could function as a world class playmaking forward (Ronaldo was still essentially a free roaming winger in 12/13 as opposed to a free roaming striker who starts on the left but ends up anywhere on the pitch post 2014 I also think you are severely underrating Ronaldo's all round game Post 2014 I'll give you an example of a recent that I'm pretty sure you've seen Ronaldo vs Napoli in the first leg of the CL R16 A that completely contradicts the myth that Ronaldo has to contribute statistically to earn a motm performance 6 clear cut goal scoring chances created against a very solid team (arguably a top 10 European club side on current form 6 - Cristiano Ronaldo has created six chances tonight v Napoli, a personal record in a Champions League game. Mercurial.— OptaJohan (@OptaJohan) February 15, 2017
We should. If Arsenal has proven anything is that 'big' performances against Arsenal mean nothing. Think of how many teams and players have been able to build a reputation of 'big performances against a top European team' by doing well against Arsenal. Arsenal gives away big performances for about 10 years now
@carlito86 the mention of AC Milan was just to show you that saying "Roma finished 2nd in a top 5 league" is a poor argument, IMO anyway. The obvious counter argument to that is why didn't he obliterate the team that finished 14 points behind Roma? Take nothing away from CR7 but Roma, besides being the team likeliest to self implode in Europe, were also very naive and pressed high against counter attack specialists United. Milan on the other hand sat deep and countered with Kaka primarily. To answer your question though, Messi scored 2 goals, had 1 direct assist and 2 pre-assists against Bayern in 2014-15. Over both legs he completed 12 dribbles too. Is that good enough?
edhardy brought up a good point. roma is known to play open football regardless of who they play and regardless of the caliber of the team. hence, why not only did roma concede 7 goals against manchester in 2007 but they also conceded 6 goals against barcelona in the 15-16 season. ed hardy referred to their play as naive when playing so openly against top teams. but even outside of that, if you look at how roma even played against madrid last season in the CL 15-16, roma played a very open game and probably in total created more clear chances than real madrid did, if i'm not mistaken. comparing messi's performance against real madrid in the SF 1st leg in 10-11 with ronaldo's performance against roma would be apples and oranges. remember, after messi and barcelona tore real madrid apart 5-0 in the league, mourinho decided to go full out defense in the next league match and champions league against barcelona later that season. pepe, diarra, and alonso played in the midfield 3! madrid hardly took step past the halfway line when barca had possession of the ball. no player in history was ever going to rack up numbers with dribbles and dangerous passes against such tactics. and against manchester united in the 10-11 CL final, barcelona played fantastic. messi was pretty much dribbling at will against the manchester united defense. you make a good point here. instead of criticizing ronaldo for underperforming against ac milan, despite finishing lower in the league than roma, it would better to judge it from a tactical perspective. as ac milan was never going to allow so much space as roma allowed against manchester giving ronaldo such high numbers. and the reason i say this is because you said ronaldo had an ''off game''. when in reality, ronaldo had 2 chances over 2 legs to play against ac milan in the KO stages and performed no where near the same level he did against roma. so in this mannner, it would also be apples and oranges when comparing ronaldinho's 1 performance against arsenal in the final in 2006 with ronaldinho's amazing performance against chelsea, given 2 opportunities at minimum to perform in the knockout stages.
I probably agree with that. I classified Ronaldo 2013 as a 'striker' for a couple of minutes, but I ended up defining him as a 'creative' forward. Furthermore, I think Ronaldo 2002/03 could also be defined as a 'creative' forward, but I defined him as a striker nonetheless. Anyways, as I mentioned before: players who can dribble, score goals, and pass the ball, tend to get more praise than players like Cristiano Ronaldo 2016/17. Both the Ballon d'Or and the FIFA award have a historical tendency/bias for those type of players. I think Ronaldo 2012/13 was similar to Thierry Henry; I wouldn't define him as a 'free roaming winger' but he definitely roamed through different areas, similar to Henry who also roamed through the left flank area but was not a winger. Agree to disagree. Ronaldo post-2014 was still great, but in my opinion, clearly inferior to Messi post-2014. 1. Napoli was always expected to be eliminated. Let's be honest about this: if Real Madrid without Ronaldo played vs. Napoli, Real Madrid would still be expected to advance. 2. Ronaldo vs. Napoli was very much an exception, not the norm. The norm is that Ronaldo does need to contribute statistically to earn a MOTM performance. And again, I reiterate my opinion: Shevchenko could deliver performances like Ronaldo vs. Napoli, but the difference is that Shevchenko wouldn't receive anywhere near as much hype as Ronaldo. Bottom line: Ronaldo vs. Napoli was a good performance, but it wasn't a great enough performance that I would forget about his worst Liga season (BY FAR) since joining Real Madrid. And again: Napoli without Higuaín, should not be the measure of greatness.