Next Ballon d'Or winner that isn't CR7 or LM10 (and when)?

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by BocaFan, Jan 19, 2015.

  1. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Brooklyn, NY
    When will someone other than CR7 or Messi win the Ballon d'Or and who will it be?

    Make your predictions and in a couple/few years we can look back on this thread with interest (and laughter). :thumbsup:



    Lets see if we can get at least to page 2 without any direct comparisons between CR7 and Messi. :unsure:
     
  2. JamesBH11

    JamesBH11 Member+

    Sep 17, 2004
    2018 or even 19
     
  3. Edhardy

    Edhardy Member+

    Sep 4, 2013
    Nairobi, Kenya
    Club:
    Juventus FC
    2016 or beyond.
    Likeliest candidates;
    Neymar Jr - he is already a superstar, the captain and leader of Brazil and arguably best international player these days. Considered by most to be Barca's 2nd best player, already.
    Paul Pogba - already a leader for France and Juventus. Starting to look every bit the best player in Serie A. Has Euro 2016 on home soil where he could really leave his mark. He also has that superstar potential that plays a part in these awards.
     
  4. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Their era is over, thankfully. I say 2015, going to either Tevez or Robben.
     
  5. JamesBH11

    JamesBH11 Member+

    Sep 17, 2004
    mmm you're dreaming eh?
    Look at last game Messi 3 and Cr7 scored 2 LOL

    Usually I take Euro or WC year as reference, and hence
    Euro2016 sooner then WC2018 later
     
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  6. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Brooklyn, NY
    Robben is probably the only "other" player with a chance to crack the top 2 in 2015. But to actually win it? I don't see it.
     
  7. TingXuan

    TingXuan Member

    Jan 15, 2015
    Malaysia
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Malaysia
    There is a chance Eden Hazard(Chelsea),Sergio Aguero(Man City) or Alexis Sanchez might win it for the premier league,I think Ronaldo and Messi era can win 2 more Ballon d or than it's others turn
     
  8. Tom Stevens

    Tom Stevens Member+

    Dec 12, 2012
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I would say there is a good chance in the next couple of years it happens. People will start looking for someone to put ahead of them, even if it is premature. I could see someone like James R. or A. Sanchez winning it this year if they continue excellent club years and then lead Colombia or Chile to the Copa America especially if they outperform Messi there.
     
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  9. JamesBH11

    JamesBH11 Member+

    Sep 17, 2004
    The next Ballon Dor winners on waiting list :
    Neymar
    Hazard
    Suarez
    Kun
    James
    Bale
    or Di Maria?
    Ibra (if he beats the time)
    Robben (forever young?)
    Cassilas or Neuer?
     
  10. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    I'd say right now markething phenomenon Neymar looks the best bet. His scoring considering the amount of shots taken (and possibly many of these shots from sub-optimal positions and moments) is already exceptional. He already draws many fouls and opponents, and has visibly become more muscular without sacrificing nimbleness or agility (he was already scoring good goals last season when lined up as centre forward, like hat-trick vs Celtic last season). Performances at the national team are unsurpassed although not always against good opponents (and played at favourable venues).
    He has the right qualities (spectacular), right nationality and plays in the right league (i.e. current Ballon d'Or method). He has also that 'X factor' in his appearance.

    Maybe he has chosen the wrong La Liga team though. Cristiano his standing at RM looks less secure and firm as the status and level of backing of the main guy at Barcelona.
     
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  11. TingXuan

    TingXuan Member

    Jan 15, 2015
    Malaysia
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Malaysia
    I agree,Neymar is probably going to win a ballon d'or 1 day,maybe within this 4 years given that he's playing at Barcelona,I am hoping he don't get injured much and continue to excel in club and nation level
     
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  12. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    I think the next potential year available would be 2016. Ronaldo will get the credit in 2015 for this year's goals. It's almost inevitable he will end up with 40+ for this season.

    The only way he's likely to not win it over the next year is if Messi carries Barcelona to the CL/Liga titles and gets close to his goals tally.

    I mean if Chelsea or Manchester City won the CL then Aguero or Costa could be candidates but most other teams aren't so defined by one star. That has been what has cost the likes of Ribery, Robben, Lahm and Neuer: they play with some incredible teammates.

    The next big chance I would say is 2016 when the Euros will trump everything (though 2012 and 2014 show that is no longer the same case). That opens it up to the winner and I wonder if Marco Reus might win it, particularly if he moves to Bayern or Madrid this season and hits his stride. Belgium could be among the favourites and so could Hazard be the winner?
     
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  13. Ozora

    Ozora Member+

    Aug 5, 2014
    Club:
    Chelsea LFC
    Messi has just scored a hattrick.He may come back to his best form.Also,Messi is 27,CR7 is 30.
     
  14. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Really, how big are the chances for a full-back to win it?

    And what did Lahm do for outstanding things at the World Cup (as central midfielder in particular) and what does he offer as central midfielder that other class ones can't? Seems that 'kicker' wasn't enormously impressed last season (2.78 with 3.00 = 'average'):
    http://www.kicker.de/news/fussball/bundesliga/vereine/2013-14/26870/vereinsspieler_philipp-lahm.html

    What's a defining 'signature quality'? Of some other defensive and central midfielders we know that there's often a statistical category that stands out (I don't say it is the right thing to value a player but that's how it often works nowadays; there's some signature move or ability that becomes highlighted).
     
  15. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    I'm not saying he should have won. I'm simply saying that the spread of ability between strong Bayern players ultimately splits the vote.

    I don't think Lahm was outstanding at the World Cup. In terms of his signature quality as a midfielder it's his positional and spatial awareness. Not something that massively comes over in stats but is important. He is a very key player for them.

    Personally I found the Pep Guardiola book very interesting on his value as a "pivote".
     
  16. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Brooklyn, NY
    hmmm... maybe but that would be inconsistent with the 2013 Ballon d'Or. I think voters memories have shortened in recent years. What you do from August to November (i.e. the 4 months leading-up to the vote) matters a lot more in the Ballon d'Or than it used to.

    Anyway, my vote is 2018 that someone else will win. Hazard or Neymar.
     
  17. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    I agree but I sort of think it gets double counted.

    Basically to me the factors tend to be: Last season + summer tournaments + start of the season. So the start of each season gets counted twice. If you score 40 goals in the season but most of them come in the previous calendar year people seem to forget that. At least that's how it seems.
     
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  18. DazerII

    DazerII Member

    May 27, 2011
    Three players with realistic chances of winning the award in no particular order; Neymar, Hazard, and Pogba. The problem with other players such as Robben, Suarez, Tevez, Ibrahimovich, Aguero, etc is that their peak coincided with the wrong era, and I doubt if they'll be able to keep up their form up to at least 2017 considering that Messi probably still has a good 2 years in him after 2014/15.

    Personal preference is Hazard.
     
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  19. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Ronaldo also plays with some incredible team mates (Kroos, Rodriguez, Bale, Benzema, Modric, last season DiMaria).

    Also, why do you say "2016 when the Euros will trump everything" when obviously the World Cup did not trump everything in 2014, otherwise Ronaldo wouldn't have won it or arguably even be nominated.
     
  20. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    @Puck, why won't you name Messi by name anymore? Being petulant?
     
  21. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    blahblahblah

    Doesn't make any sense.
     
  22. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    There is no question though that Ronaldo is the number one star in Madrid. There are questions over who is the top star at Bayern. That's the difference.

    Meanwhile Euro 2016 will be the biggest profile tournament in 2016. It still requires someone to have a standout performance (nobody did in 2012 or 2014), but the platform is there if someone takes it.
     
  23. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Brooklyn, NY
    Well, it will again depend on who wins Euro 2016. If Germany, Italy or Spain win, chances are it will be another balanced "team win" with no single standout player. But if its Belgium, Netherlands or France being carried by their respective superstar then it might affect the vote.

    Of course, most of the world's superstar forwards won't even be playing in Euro 2016.....
     
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  24. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    James Rodriguez gave the standout performance of WC14, he was both determinant and magical. However, it hurt him that he was just a relative newcomer to the global stage. Also, Robben was sensational, the best winger performance at the WC since Lato. He deserved to win Balon D'Or as an established star who can perform at the biggest tournament of all.
     
  25. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    Ok, have it your way.
     

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