Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

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You got to love those leaks coming out of Germany again.....

 

There's a section of these numbskulls who can NEVER be satisfied. They're like the donny tiny-hands zealots who seem to desire a hitler-youth style purity from their politics and that's NEVER going to be possible.

I was always torn on the issue, as you know, (and things like this don't make me feel more inclined to be desperately unhappy with moving to a Norway-style deal), but it's a political and economic calculation based on a range of issues... not a morality play or a spaghetti western where we're all rooting for the guys in the white hats. That's why I voted remain... simple, practical considerations.

But I'm bound to say, mate, that I also get a bit annoyed with people who are trying to portray the EU as the modern equivalent of the enlightenment... it's NOT! It has problems and anybody who's been paying attention will recognise that. The fact they're not bad enough to make most sensible people want to leave is another matter.

YMMV

 

True, true.

Wasn't it them that released the stuff about Juncker being half-cut

 

I couldn't prefer none Turkey in EU after the UK leave. Today's fits Turkey has stronger military force than the UK but Brits has nuclear bombs as NK and France two examples and can hinder USA in self defence if US troops up coming.

 

So May essentially pleaded for 2 more years of EU access, doesn't look like a strong hand she is holding.

 

Well, it means they also have access to our market as well which is worth more strictly speaking as they sell more stuff to us than we sell to them, don't forget. It also obviously means we'll carry on paying them billions of pounds in subsidies, mainly to the eastern bloc countries but... yeah. It's an absolute bloody shambles, TBH.

Can't help thinking the plan, (such as it is), all along was to kick it into the long grass until everybody forgets about it and hope it goes away.

 

So 27 countries combined sell more stuff to you than you alone sell to those 27 countries. Yeah, I know who can take the hit better. For example the UK was Germanys third biggest Export destination in 2016 but all in all it has been "only" ~7,1% of total Exports. How's that number looking for UK exports into the EU?

I think the biggest problem is though that the EU doesn't want to seem like they are doing the UK any favours. Brexit means Brexit and all that.

 

Er, yeah, that's what I said

You're missing the point. They won't want to cause problems unnecessarily if we're staying in the single market, the customs unions and complying with all relevant rules.

They're not 'doing us favours'. They're doing things for their OWN reasons to ensure no reduction in their own economic and security interests. It's the difference between realpolitik and reasons why some people voted for the bloody idea in the first place.

As I said, we're also paying them money so talk of 'favours' is misunderstanding the position.

 

I am sure any concessions in the direction of that "they sell more to us" irrelevancy have become even more unlikely after the AfD entered the Bundestag. If she makes any concession and if brexit becomes a success AfD will campaign for Germany to go down the same route. She cant let that happen.

 

Hitlers country 15 years after 1918 !!

 

20 years later from 1918 austrian born intro Nazism in Germany.

 

I think you thoroughly misjudge the reasonableness (is this a real word?) that is going to be extended towards Britain. The reaction I predominantly get - across all party lines btw. - when I bring up Brexit is "Enough! ******** off already." People generally don't care much if the economy takes a hit at this point. They've had enough of the lamentations and extra wishes of the UK, they just want you gone and move on without you. The faster the better. Why would we want to extend the time of uncertainty for another 2 years? No thx.

 

Even if that were true, (it's not), they STILL want our money and our business.

In the same way that sensible British politicians have to separate the ramblings of the knuckle-draggers in their own parties from their approach to arriving at a reasonable compromise, EU politicians have to do because it will be THEM that will suffer the consequences when people start losing their jobs, their homes, etc. etc.

There's a type of political approach that overreacts to something that, itself, is an overreaction. That's not an option for people involved in the reality of politics. It's only an option for dimwits and political lightweights like Farage and donny tiny hands.

 

At least in Germany losing jobs through brexit is a non issue. Car manufacturing personel knows EU falling apart if we allow cherry picking is worse than a hard brexit and the outcomes of it. There will be no consequences.

 

I dunno.. Shouldn't you be more focussed on your own country after this election.. Merkel too a beating and is softening her pro-EU tone quite a bit..

 

The EU is my own country.

As to Merkel, she got exactly 0,9% less of the vote than in her previously worst result in 2009. Sure not great, but not a catastrophe either. A CDU-FDP-Green Party coalition will be interesting.

 

Exactly. You dont know. There is 87% of pro EU forces in parliament. Her main opposition is even more staunchly pro EU. She will be in trouble if she makes any concessions. Not the other way round. That is so much a cross society consensus that there was no debate about it all in election campaign.

Ive been preaching this for 2 years now and nothing has changed about this even if Tories would like to believe in the myth this would change after the elections.

 

Cherry picking? Seriously?

The poorest 20% of the Greek population have seen a 42% DROP in their incomes... their youth unemployment is around 50%, in Spain it's around 40%, Italy, around a third... if they haven't left NOW I'm guessing they, (the Greeks, at least), aren't going to.

This meme about the EU having to adopt an approach because, otherwise, everybody will start buggering off is nonsense. The fact is that anybody that's in the eurozone pretty much CAN'T leave and the ones that aren't are net beneficiaries of the EU budget and gain from the extra trade. There's more chance of Mars joining the EU than them leaving.

And, to be clear, there's no possibility of us being negatively impacted to any sizeable degree that won't also impact ALL of the other european states and, let's get it straight, we have our own currency so can devalue... they CAN'T. If it doesn't impact the rest of the EU it won't impact us much either. That's just the way trade works I'm afraid.

 

Mars joining the EU is more likely than Le Pen, Wilders or cinqo stelle gaining power. Always interesting to see "outsiders" explaing to us "our politics". As for the "effects": for us it would be whiskey getting more expensive, for British people it could be mass unemployment. Wow I cant wait for the hard times when my beloved Springbank will be 10 euros more expensive!

When even your lefties view on this is so skewed and far apart from reality, then it is no wonder you're in this mess in the first place. If Jamaika becomes a reality then the greens' Özdemir will likely become foreign minister and that will pretty much rule out any cherry picking anyways. The greens give a shit about the German car industry and every other industry for that matter. If FDP is Macron's death, Ozdemir is cherry picking's death.

 

So you're saying that Germany, France, Holland and Italy are the only countries in the EU? Oh, I'm sorry... I didn't realise that. I thought that places like Hungary, Poland and Austria were also members

Anyway, the fascist le Pen got over a third of the vote in France, Wilders came 2nd in Holland the AfD have 94 seats in the German parliament, IIRC. Also politics as it's recognised over here and in many democratic countries has more or less been suspended in Italy with their leader being almost 'anointed' by the EU... so maybe save your self-congratulations for a bit, eh?

TBH you may as well let the Turks in, they'll be right at home, (npi).

The fact is that European politics is incredibly volatile atm, as shown by this...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41452174

Police have sealed off 1,300 of 2,315 schools in Catalonia designated as polling stations for the region's banned independence referendum, Spain's central government says.

The move came as the Spanish authorities stepped up their attempts to stop Sunday's referendum.

Police have now occupied the regional government's telecommunications centre.​

There are problems with the direction the EU is going atm, partly political but mostly economic with this continuing austerity lunacy. Unless THAT'S sorted out, they'll be problems in the future whether we're in or out.

 

Like I said. This is what it usually looks like when someone's trying to explain mainland politics to mainlanders.

 

Poland ruling party and Hungary ruling party are crazy fvcks, so the EU is not as stable as ze German wants to make it out to be.

Then again we have Trump.

 

I think before he tries to explain it to me it might be an idea to explain it to them, plus the Spanish, etc. etc.



Almost 500 injured as I post this, many of them older people by the looks of it.