Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

Anyway, at this rate I don't think the EU is going to grant another extension. The hardline brexiteers will just waste the time again to get to the no deal brexit they so desire. I think a no deal brexit is now by far the most likely outcome.

 

Why I disagree:

1) If a no deal is what the hardliners want, it will be obvious some distance from 31 October.

2) The DUP will support a vote of no confidence.

3) Parliament will revoke A50 to prepare for an election.

 

1) So what?

2)DUP does not object to no deal brexit if it means no backstop.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-foster-no-deal-brexit-most-likely-outcome-eu

3)Based on what?

 

A majority of MPs do not want "No Deal." They aren't going to let a vocal minority take the UK over a cliff.

Let's be serious. Dominic Grieve will tank his career in politics to stop a No Deal, because he can retire to some cushy business career and be just fine.

No Deal isn't happening. Nobody who is serious thinks it is going to happen. You certainly do not.

 

The current crop of would be tory leaders have gone back full circle to pie in the sky brexit scenarios. Promising new and better deals left and right. None of this shit is going to fly. The only way the tory party can take back the votes of the brexit party is by delivering brexit. A general election before that is suicide for them. They have put their party above the interests of their country/a brexit deal in the past. They will do so again. The brexit party is currently polling above any other party. Calling a general election at this point won't help anyone to get a deal through parliament.

 

Yes. Precisely. Which is why a deal will NOT get through Parliament. Meaning only A50 revocation or No Deal.

You say No Deal is likely. I disagree.

 

McVey is now saying she would simply not bring any votes to parliament to allow No Deal to go through. How very Democratic.
I'm pretty sure she's only standing to give an option far worse than Johnson.

 

Not just Grieve. Hammond was very coy when asked recently if he would vote No Confidence in order to stop No Deal. Would have been easy for him to say no, or to put conditions on it, but he simply avoided the question, which just looks like he would but didn't want to admit it. There are, I hope, enough Tories who would reluctantly be in the same boat.
I wouldn't say no deal is impossible, but I think it's less likey than revocation or a second referendum. Most likely for me is that May's deal is passed with a referendum attached to it.

 

Can't Parliament just put forward its own votes and force the government to avoid No Deal?

 

Making predictions atm is hard, (to put it mildly), but a 2nd referendum is looking more likely. As much as anything because the tories won't be able to deliver brexit before an election and they won't want an election.

I'm just not sure of your suggestion about May's deal being on the ballot, though. Bearing in mind that couldn't even get through parliament on the first 3 attempts. The thing is that was partly because it's not actually a 'deal'... it's half a deal that leaves all the tricky stuff to do with trade still up in the air. So we'd be being asked to vote on something that parliament, itself, has already said it didn't like on multiple occasions.

Also, what would be the other option?

To leave and trade on WTO terms and break our international obligations under treaty in the process... or would be simply remain?

If it's the latter that would be seen as nobbling the vote by the brexit headbangers and the first STILL leaves us having to negotiate with the EU for some sort of trade deal if we don't want to pay tariffs on all our imported goods from them and face tariffs on our exports to them, both of which would be pretty disastrous... because that would be the FIRST thing they'd insist on. Pay your previous bill first, please!!!

And, of course, we'll have the new PM, (which almost ALL of the population don't have a say in choosing), the 'lead us' in all this.

Oh, joy...

Tory Leadership Race#indyref2 pic.twitter.com/ARBSlX3a5T

— Phantom Power (@PhantomPower14) June 10, 2019

 

Well, tbf, that was what brummie was complaining about before... that when parliament had a chance to push for various options nobody could command a majority in any single vote, (except the 'no-deal' as an option being removed IIRC). I mean, he's right, obviously... but, as I said, labour isn't a majority of parliament so we have to work with others and, at that stage, everybody was still trying to push their own preferences.

I mean, it's an absolute shit-show, obviously

This guy had a good take on the beeb the other day...

Here's the essential state of English politics in 96 seconds by my colleague @rafaelbehr pic.twitter.com/hO3aAYLQeY

— John Harris (@johnharris1969) June 9, 2019

He's right about almost all of that except the part where he says we had to have the EU explain it to us. I say that because what they told us was obvious right from the start... unfortunately both leavers AND remainers wanted their own version of reality to be the 'right' one and wouldn't listen to any facts that contradicted them.

Thus we are where we are, as they say

 

The EU have already said no more negotiations, which they will probably double down on against a Brexit hardliner. That will leave no deal or May's deal as the only options to leave. Parliament won't support no deal, but I think enough MPs could back May's deal vs remain on a second referendum if that's the only way to progress leaving. If they don't, then the balance shifts to revocation or general election - either of which destroys the Tories.
That said, I wouldn't put any money on it. I think the most likely outcome of all of this is "who knows?".

 

This is the Catch 22 for the Tories though. They don't have the numbers for Brexit, but a general election likely worsens their position, so there aren't the votes at the moment for No Confidence. Only the nuclear option of no deal realistically changes that.

It would likely need to be a new Government to trigger that though, not just a new PM. Although a more conciliatory Tory taking over could make some moves. Johnson, Raab or McVey would stand no chance. Gove or Stewart possibly, but neither are likely to be anywhere near the final two.

 

Brexit assumes human form and tries to take over McVey's launch.

'You are all fake news, and these people are all fake Conservatives'

A protester, who told @PaulBrandITV he was angry about Brexit, interrupts Esther McVey's campaign launch event https://t.co/7zdOSfe5HB pic.twitter.com/CD5tbsi2u4

— ITV News (@itvnews) June 10, 2019

 

Yes, exactly!

We've already given the article 50 notice to leave so unless parliament passes something definitively changing that, we're leaving anyway.

It's interesting to read the names of the brave souls that voted against issuing that notice...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-labour-conservative-how-voted-a7558291.html

Obviously, some people weren't particularly 'brave', as such, because they held seats in heavily remain areas so could be said to be simply reflecting the views of their constituents, (mainly in London).

But there were some in heavily leave areas that had some brass balls and voted against it at THAT stage because they thought giving the power, effectively, to May was like giving a loaded revolver to a 4 year old... 'maybe unwise'.

 

The SNP were whipped to vote against it, weren't they?
Interesting to see Chuka voted for it, before changing his mind and then changing parties a couple of times.

 

Put it to a 2nd ref. regardless of any logic just to get it, 'off their book's, as they say?

Hmm... yeah. Maybe!

Well, either of those is my favoured option, obviously

OK. Let's stick ten quid on that!

 

I believe so.

But Chuka? Chuka who?

 

So the next 6 weeks will be consumed by tory wannabes trying to outbrexit each other? I'm already tired of it after just one day. Can't they do it any faster?

 

Personally I'd like to see done by a mass cage-fight or possibly a max max style rampage up the A1.

 

Are you getting enough rest?

 

He's backed by Liam Fox, so I doubt he'll be taking a moderate approach. He's just positioning himself for the contest.