Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by The Biscuitman, Feb 20, 2016.

  1. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We're not as smart as you. Could you explain it to us?
     
  2. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wait, seriously? I'm sure you've seen the news:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jeremy-corbyn-admits-labour-ignored-anti-semitism-rtqjzldp0

    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ds-antisemitism-response-after-documents-leak

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...dent-group-split-luciana-berger-a8786496.html

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.co...ing-labour-a-welcoming-place-for-antisemites/

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...direct-challenge-jeremy-corbyn-anti-semitism/

    And this is the actual response uttered by Naughtius:

    I'm eager to see how you read this pretty easy explanation as something else. But before you do, I'd like to take on Naughtius' backpedal:

    1) There are links to a ton of polls here showing that Corbyn's approval is terrible, despite the Tory self-immolation. And some pollsters seem to think that antisemitism is a part of the problem.

    2) Despite the Tories doing their best to be terrible, Labour just can't seem to shake them.

    upload_2019-4-16_9-27-25.png

    Since Labour has moved more aggressively on the referendum front in the past two months, can either of you explain - without the anti-Semitism angle - why Labour is polling so poorly now? Remember, here are the explanations you have to reconcile:

    1) Tory immolation is nearly complete
    2) Lib Dems, UKIP, and Greens see vote share increasing, so it's not discontent with politics vis-a-vis Brexit
    3) Labour has moved in line with its voters on 2nd ref/GE
    4) Economy is doing fairly well - not poorly enough to make swing voters switch to the alternative

    Good luck! I'm excited to read what explanation is more nuanced and does a better job telling the story than "bigot alienates supporters, polling tanks, news covers it all."
     
  3. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I believe Corbyn is a soft antisemite. I don't think he hates Jews as such but he seems to play to a lot of the bad tropes (like Trump for example).

    The point that NM has made before is that Labour courts those 7m Muslim votes which may explain but not excuse some lack of action on this front.

    As far as polling goes, I am always suspicious of the opposition polling in the Westminster system outside of a campaign arc because the government monopolises all the TV time and media coverage.

    We only really see the popularity of the opposition (or otherwise) once the campaign starts.

    That's my experience over decades in NZ anyway.

    Overall I think Corbyn is bobbins as a parliamentary leader.
     
  4. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    So my point is that Corbyn isn't an anti-semite and your 'argument', (if such it can be called), is to point out that he IS concerned that examples of antisemitism weren't being handled quickly or effectively enough in the party, i.e. the precise OPPOSITE of the point you were trying to make?
    'Some pollsters', eh? is that a technical phrase?

    Corbyn has always been pretty unpopular. On some occasions it's been better than others, (such as when people thought he was going to be PM and help their real interests, i.e. schools, hospitals, jobs, wages, etc. etc.),. So he didn't start getting unpopular when people started banging on about antisemitism.

    The antisemitism stuff has barely shifted the dial, as I KEEP trying to explain.

    What's made a lot MORE difference is the brexit stuff.

    Literally NOBODY mentions anything about antisemitism on the doorstep. The ones who don't like him say he's a 'communist' or he 'hates Britain', and similar daily hate-mail retreads they've picked up.
    ???

    The expected turn-out in the May elections is well DOWN so I'm not sure where you're getting THAT from.
    Are you drunk?

    It's worth pointing out that my initial post was about how the party was doing in the polls. It was YOU that shot back with this Corbyn antisemitism crap. I'm just explaining why that isn't getting much leverage with the public.

    So unless you're now saying he's become LESS antisemitic all of a sudden how do you explain the change in the fortunes in the polls?
     
  5. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I don't know the guy particularly but I don't think that's true.

    I think the plain truth of the matter is that guy's like Corbyn aren't really built for t'internet age where how you make people feel is as important as your specific policies or ideas.

    I think his big problem is that, like a lot of people on the left where being comradely was important, he won't throw people under the bus... even some that SHOULD be.

    To an extent I know WHY he does that... because it doesn't matter how much he does or doesn't do to push the matter... to his detractors it will NEVER be enough.

    TBH I feel the same way. To be pushed into something against someone who you've generally agreed with on many issues, by people who, themselves, are MASSIVE racists, seems unfair.

    But, nevertheless, I think it IS necessary.

    By the looks of the latest stories it seems he, also, is concerned that things haven't moved fast enough or far enough.
    Like I say, I voted for him first time in the leadership election but not the 2nd. He's always been problematic as a leader.

    But what DOES annoy me is when people try and claim that one particular issue is the real problem and when people find out about it... ooh, they'll be SO mad. :rolleyes:

    The guy's politics haven't changed for, like, 40 fecking years. If they were prepared to vote for a party with him as leader before, they'll probably vote for it again.

    Now whether enough will vote for us to become a government is another matter. That remains to be seen but, whatever happens, it will have absolutely FECK ALL to do with antisemitism.
     
  6. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Labour's support has declined from approximately 40% in public opinion polling in January to slightly under 35% now.

    Explain why.
     
  7. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    The two main parties had a rise back at the time of the last election, as Jitty has pointed out, so any fall is in comparison to THAT period.

    ATM the fringe parties are having a rise in the polls as they're seen as more 'pure' in terms of the issue people are talking about which is, in case you haven't noticed, brexit. I'd have thought the title of this thread would have given you a hint, tbh, but there we are.

    The constructive ambiguity, (regarding a 2nd referendum, for example), that labour used to increase support in the polls was only ever a short term fix and, as time has gone on, fewer people are prepared to wait for a decision.

    The likelihood is that, if we DO come out decisively for a 2nd vote we'll lose some support in the north and midlands but we'll gain some in larger metropolitan areas like London. As to the extent and how it all works out overall, THAT remains to be seen.

    This is what people are mentioning on the doorstep.

    I mean, entirely without any prompting, THAT'S what people start talking about if they mention anything at all. It's me and people LIKE me that have to drag the conversation back to the local hospital A&E closing. However, as I say, some people don't like Corbyn because he's a 'commie', or he 'hates Britain' or 'he doesn't back our troops', (this is a big(ish) military area as we have one of the central ordinance depots for the British military in our town).

    But the only thing they DON'T mention is bloody antisemitism. Simply put, ordinary working class people are more worried about the idea he doesn't like THEM than him not liking Jewish people.
     
    superdave repped this.
  8. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    BTW, according to the site here we were at about 35% back in January as well. It's been at about 40% more recently AFAIK.

    But, as I say, that's nationally. Problem being we don't vote nationally... we vote locally.
     
  9. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I want to thank you for giving me the link to the new site, because that site gives you the raw data in downloadable form.

    From those data, I calculated the average Labour share of vote intention in public opinion polling from December 14 - February 15. Those are the dates after May's government pulled the first meaningful vote and before the formation of TIG. I then calculated the average Labour share of vote intention in public opinion polling from February 18 to April 12, the last poll in their archive.

    upload_2019-4-16_15-53-26.png

    The results show three things: From December to February, Labour had 37% of the intended vote. Now they pull in 34%. And, the t-test says those differences are meaningful (p < 0.01).

    What's even BETTER is that I can do two-month chunks going back to see if the change was rapid or slow. Oct-Dec 2018 polling was 37.9%, nearly identical. August-Oct was also 37.9%. From January-August 2018, Labour's average support was 39.8%.

    Thanks for playing. The people you talk to on your canvasses are not representative of the general public. You wanna toss another explanation my way that I can easily bat down, go for it. I mean, what do I know. It's just my job.
     
    ceezmad and The Jitty Slitter repped this.
  10. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    You really need to be careful with voter intention in the UK, NZ etc because the opposition party doesn't have any active campaign or media share which a monopolised by the government.

    Corbyn was unpopular yet delivered a very good result in an actual election campaign from terrible starting figures.

    Labour in NZ were similarly dead and buried until the campaign started.

    We may not see an election in the UK until 2022!
     
  11. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    ... and yet, strangely, you don't seem to have realised that the very creation of TIG might have meant a few percent were going for them as an option and it's got feck-all to do with antisemitism.

    How very odd.

    Still, what DO I know, eh?!

    Also, as I've previously mentioned, the SNP are taking some of our votes north of the border, despite having very similar policies.

    It's the same story as it's always been. There are various people who are broadly on the left that seem to enjoy splitting the left's vote for their own, (often pretty peculiar), take on what being anti-tory and anti-austerity actually means.

    Seriously, what are the major policy differences between labour's policy and those of the snp, the lib/dems, greens, etc. etc. That didn't stop the tories having this poster in 2015 and NOT with Corbyn but with Ed Miliband...

    [​IMG]


    Y'know, that's the JEWISH Ed Miliband. Hey, maybe he's one of those self-hating Jews, eh?! :)

    Also, to be clear, I have NEVER suggested that people should believe me because of 'anecdata'. I've only ever suggested that what people tell me is what is generally reflected in the polling numbers.

    One thing I CAN tell you is that, from the people I speak to around here, (and the dozens of other people doing the same thing), Jeremy Corbyn goes down like a lead balloon. So I'm guessing those figures must be showing support around London and the other big metropolitan areas.

    Whether that can be repeated is another matter. It's possible we may have reached 'peak Corbyn'... but we'll see.

    Around here the manifesto was what made the difference in 2017. Our showing went up markedly when the right-wing in the labour party leaked it.

    If not for that we'd have been nowhere NEAR the tories who was boosted by the lack of a UKIP candidate, (they didn't stand as you might know). That meant there was roughly 7.5k UKIP voters up for grabs and she was a brexiter.

    But, despite that we only lost by about 700. Her winning margin actually went DOWN.
     
  12. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Anyway who thinks they can predict the next election, (and I'm not suggesting anybody here is... I'm just saying), must be crackers.

    It was the manifesto that was the 'star'. We had all this he's a commie, he hates Britain, etc. etc. that time as well. Now they've added a new attack. Just a shame for them it's not one people find believable :D
     
  13. yossarian

    yossarian Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 16, 1999
    Big City Blinking
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gone too soon.
     
    song219 and The Jitty Slitter repped this.
  14. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    It is only anecdotal but my good mate in Bristol and all his friends all switched from Tory 2015 to Labour in 2017

    Main reason was NHS and Education
     
  15. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I still get upset about it
     
  16. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    We're going to increase taxes on people with too much money, borrow some money and invest it in schools, hospitals, the poor, jobs, etc. etc.

    Yeah, who needs that shit, eh?! :rolleyes:

    It's not bloody rocket science, is it.

    I mean, being able to bloody do it... THAT'S gonna be the hard part, especially with people who are, nevertheless, capable in the party on the right, standing on the sidelines carping. That makes it a lot harder.
     
  17. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    BTW, just on the 'anecdata' point... it's worth pointing out that, according to our stats, we've spoken to over 50% of the households in the constituency since the 2017 GE, (about 60% IIRC), and the data is pretty reliable.

    In that election we thought it was neck and neck and we ended up needing just half a percent swing to have won.

    I realise it's only local but that can be translated nationally if you adjust for their own, specific, local conditions.
     
    The Jitty Slitter repped this.
  18. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Latest ComRes poll has them on 23% (down 9), which would complete it. They've only polled that low under peak Blair.
    Chance of a General Election is on a par with Trump tweeting something sensible.
     
  19. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Probably less... that might happen by accident.
     
  20. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
     
  21. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    There's a huge difference between ordinary people and those at the top.

    In all honesty, though, it's not just in the UK. Pretty much EVERYWHERE the elite is corrupt and rotten to the core.

    I was reading about this story the other day...

    https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ion-over-20bn-russian-money-laundering-scheme

    And that follows this...

    https://www.theguardian.com/busines...d-of-volkswagen-could-face-10-years-in-prison

    These buggers are EVERYWHERE, like I say.

    I've only mentioned them because where you live and the UK are places that people tend to think are generally above board.

    I suppose it's inevitable that, in essentially capitalist economies, money will skew all aspects of public life.

    But what I find really troubling is that being against the elite has become almost an insult now due to the fact that fascists have tried to grab the moniker.

    Just because donny tiny hands says he's against 'the elite', doesn't make it true :(
     
  22. It's all the fault of the Reagan-Tatcher era in which greed was put on a pedestal and the corrupt mentality was institutionalised and passed on via the American MBA teachings.
     
    Dr. Wankler repped this.
  23. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    These came up on my YouTube feed due to all the Brexit stiff I’ve been watching.. Seems appropriate.



     
    Naughtius Maximus and lanman repped this.
  24. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are last night's events in Derry a harbinger of what's to come?
     
  25. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

Share This Page