MLS Power Rankings: 2013

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 07/21.

Code:

Rank Team  ELO+   Rank Team Points
 1   POR   121     1   SKC   58.0
 2   SKC   119     2   POR   57.8
 3   RSL   117     3   RSL   56.6
 4   VAN   115     4   MTL   53.6
 5   LAG   109     5   VAN   53.1
 6   NYR   107     6   LAG   52.7
 7   PHI   107     7   NYR   52.0
 8   HOU   106     8   HOU   51.4
 9   COL   106     9   PHI   50.2
10   MTL   104    10   DAL   49.3
11   DAL   102    11   NER   47.2
12   SEA   101    12   SEA   47.1
13   NER    98    13   COL   46.8
14   CHI    94    14   CHI   42.5
15   SJE    91    15   CLB   39.1
16   CLB    88    16   SJE   39.0
17   CHV    78    17   CHV   30.6
18   TOR    73    18   TOR   28.1
19   DCU    64    19   DCU   21.9

The average number of games played per team is now 20.2 (K=9.90), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.622 (H=24).

The season is far enough along at this point that it is meaningful to start looking at strength of schedule. ELO+ ratings provide a way to do that, by calculating the average rating of each team's opponents so far at the time when they met, the average rating of their remaining opponents, and the combined average. In all cases, home-field advantage is taken into account. Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 07/21.

Code:

Rank Team  Past     Rank Team Future    Rank Team Overall
 1   SEA   105.5     1   COL   107.7     1   CHV   104.3
 2   CHV   104.7     2   RSL   106.9     2   SJE   103.1
 3   LAG   103.8     3   VAN   104.3     3   SEA   102.3
 4   DCU   103.0     4   SJE   104.2     4   DAL   102.2
 5   TOR   102.7     5   CHV   103.7     5   COL   101.8
 6   SJE   102.5     6   DAL   103.3     6   LAG   101.6
 7   POR   102.3     7   CHI   101.5     7   DCU   101.1
 8   DAL   101.5     8   CLB   101.2     8   VAN   101.0
 9   NER   100.9     9   PHI    98.6     9   RSL   100.9
10   MTL    98.9    10   SEA    98.6    10   POR   100.5
11   VAN    98.8    11   DCU    98.4    11   TOR   100.0
12   HOU    98.7    12   POR    98.0    12   CLB    99.6
13   COL    98.6    13   LAG    97.9    13   CHI    98.8
14   CLB    98.4    14   MTL    97.7    14   MTL    98.4
15   NYR    98.0    15   SKC    96.7    15   HOU    97.7
16   RSL    97.1    16   HOU    96.4    16   PHI    97.2
17   CHI    96.6    17   TOR    96.2    17   NER    97.1
18   PHI    96.3    18   NYR    94.5    18   NYR    96.6
19   SKC    95.3    19   NER    91.8    19   SKC    95.8

 

Here's my updated rankings:

Code:

Team Pois  EAP
RSL  56.8  61.4
POR  56.7  61.2
SKC  56.4  59.3
MON  53.3  49.3
LAG  53.2  54.5
VAN  52.2  52.5
NYR  51.6  52.2
HOU  50.8  50.1
FCD  49.6  46.5
PHI  49.5  49.0
NER  49.0  55.1
SEA  47.7  47.7
COL  47.2  48.5
CHI  42.4  40.7
CLB  41.1  43.8
SJE  39.4  34.1
CHV  32.0  27.5
TOR  30.7  32.6
DCU  23.3  17.7

It looks like RSL dropped 2 points off their Poisson expected end of season with that result, and SKC picked up nearly that many. Right now it is looking like New England is suffering the most from not getting results when it counts, since their Poisson ranking is about 6 points below their full season expected, and they are currently sitting outside of the playoffs. Strangely enough, my model is showing DC as OVERPERFORMING right now when compared to the expected full season.

 

Trying a simpler table this week. Teams listed as #1 - #19, but numberical rank plotted instead of positional ranking. i.e. might show the relative rankings a bit better. RSL, Portland, and SKC all within one "rank" of each other, with Vancouver 1.5 ranks behind them. System looks better this week, Colorado and Chicago perhaps a bit high, Dallas, Houston and New York perhaps a bit low, harkening back, again to some weighting given recent results rather than overall season long performance. Then again, Dallas is probably on the worst run of form in the league right now... Snapshot captures most recent performance, so Chicago riding their rout high and Houston sitting at #4 despite not playing last week. Kansas City with the sharp rise, Montreal continues to drop.



Graph.

 

I think that's a fair statement, actually.....

 

So with the losses Kansas City and LA... rise? Wait, what? -overturns table and storms out-

Actually, because all five top teams lost, it was more a matter of who was going to fall faster, and in this case it was RSL and Portland, causing Kansas City and LA to apparently rise. One of the flaws of using a numeric relative ranking system I suppose? I've actually figured out that as a moving average model my spreadsheet tends to lag a game or so when turning out ratings, so I've added a "form" category that looks at the most recent result and compares it to the ranking to "predict" movement for the following week. So if SKC and LA moving up gives you a bit of heartburn while NY seemingly doesn't get any love, I would note the system thinks that at this snapshot in time moment, RBNY is playing the second best in the league and trending up, behind only Colorado, who are tearing it up.

DC is overperforming at #19 and trending down...

 

That makes me feel a bit better

I actually think this has been a pretty crazy season, all things considered. Second half of the season should be really good I think, lots of twists and turns.

 

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 07/29.

Code:

Rank Team  ELO+   Rank Team Points
 1   POR   116     1   MTL   56.2
 2   SKC   115     2   SKC   55.8
 3   RSL   112     3   POR   55.7
 4   PHI   112     4   RSL   54.8
 5   NYR   111     5   NYR   54.2
 6   MTL   109     6   PHI   53.2
 7   LAG   109     7   LAG   51.7
 8   COL   109     8   HOU   49.7
 9   VAN   107     9   NER   49.6
10   HOU   103    10   VAN   49.5
11   NER   103    11   DAL   49.5
12   DAL   103    12   COL   49.1
13   SEA   103    13   SEA   48.8
14   SJE    97    14   CHI   42.3
15   CHI    94    15   SJE   42.0
16   CLB    84    16   CLB   37.1
17   TOR    78    17   TOR   30.5
18   CHV    76    18   CHV   29.7
19   DCU    59    19   DCU   19.4

The average number of games played per team is now 21.2 (K=9.45), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.627 (H=25). Consistent with what others are saying, these numbers suggest a lot of parity across the league--no team is more than 16% better than average, and only DCU is more than 24% below average.

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 07/29.

Code:

Rank Team  Past     Rank Team Future    Rank Team Overall
 1   CHV   105.7     1   COL   107.0     1   CHV   104.0
 2   LAG   104.4     2   VAN   106.9     2   SJE   102.1
 3   POR   104.0     3   DAL   103.3     3   DCU   101.9
 4   SEA   102.6     4   RSL   103.3     4   DAL   101.6
 5   SJE   101.6     5   SJE   103.2     5   SEA   101.6
 6   DCU   101.5     6   DCU   102.6     6   VAN   101.3
 7   TOR   100.9     7   CLB   102.1     7   COL   101.1
 8   DAL   100.6     8   CHI   101.4     8   LAG   101.1
 9   NER    99.9     9   CHV   101.3     9   RSL   100.8
10   RSL    99.5    10   SEA   100.3    10   POR   100.5
11   CLB    99.3    11   TOR    99.0    11   CLB   100.4
12   MTL    98.9    12   HOU    98.7    12   TOR   100.1
13   COL    98.3    13   MTL    97.9    13   CHI    99.0
14   NYR    98.2    14   PHI    96.0    14   MTL    98.4
15   PHI    98.2    15   SKC    95.5    15   HOU    98.1
16   HOU    97.8    16   LAG    95.1    16   PHI    97.4
17   VAN    97.8    17   POR    94.8    17   NER    97.1
18   CHI    97.3    18   NYR    94.4    18   NYR    96.9
19   SKC    96.9    19   NER    92.7    19   SKC    96.4

 

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 08/04.

Code:

Rank Team  ELO+   Rank Team Points
 1   NYR   118     1   NYR   57.3
 2   POR   114     2   RSL   54.9
 3   RSL   112     3   POR   54.4
 4   COL   109     4   MTL   53.2
 5   VAN   108     5   SKC   52.6
 6   SKC   107     6   HOU   51.3
 7   SEA   107     7   LAG   51.0
 8   HOU   106     8   SEA   50.8
 9   LAG   106     9   VAN   50.0
10   PHI   104    10   PHI   49.7
11   MTL   103    11   COL   48.6
12   CHI   102    12   DAL   47.5
13   DAL    99    13   NER   46.2
14   SJE    99    14   CHI   46.1
15   NER    97    15   SJE   43.8
16   TOR    85    16   CLB   36.1
17   CLB    82    17   TOR   33.9
18   CHV    74    18   CHV   28.5
19   DCU    68    19   DCU   23.0

The average number of games played per team is now 22.1 (K=9.05), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.624 (H=25).

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 08/04.

Code:

Rank Team  Past     Rank Team Future    Rank Team Overall
 1   CHV   105.6     1   COL   108.0     1   CHV   103.9
 2   LAG   104.0     2   SJE   105.2     2   DAL   101.7
 3   POR   102.7     3   DCU   103.4     3   SJE   101.7
 4   CLB   101.6     4   VAN   103.3     4   DCU   101.6
 5   DAL   101.3     5   DAL   102.5     5   LAG   101.1
 6   RSL   101.0     6   SEA   102.5     6   SEA   101.0
 7   DCU   100.6     7   HOU   101.5     7   COL   100.9
 8   TOR   100.4     8   CHV   100.8     8   VAN   100.9
 9   SJE   100.1     9   RSL    99.8     9   CLB   100.8
10   SEA   100.0    10   MTL    99.4    10   RSL   100.6
11   VAN    99.6    11   CLB    99.2    11   POR   100.4
12   NER    99.1    12   PHI    98.7    12   TOR    99.4
13   MTL    99.0    13   CHI    98.6    13   MTL    99.1
14   NYR    99.0    14   TOR    97.7    14   PHI    98.4
15   PHI    98.2    15   NER    96.8    15   NER    98.3
16   COL    97.9    16   SKC    96.6    16   CHI    98.1
17   CHI    97.8    17   POR    96.3    17   HOU    98.1
18   SKC    97.6    18   LAG    95.8    18   SKC    97.3
19   HOU    96.0    19   NYR    91.4    19   NYR    96.5

 

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 08/12. Parity continues to be evident, with all but three teams within 14% of average.

Code:

Rank Team  ELO+   Rank Team Points
 1   RSL   114     1   RSL   56.2
 2   POR   114     2   NYR   54.8
 3   SEA   112     3   POR   54.1
 4   NYR   111     4   SKC   53.9
 5   VAN   111     5   SEA   53.4
 6   SKC   109     6   MTL   51.9
 7   CHI   108     7   VAN   51.6
 8   LAG   107     8   LAG   51.1
 9   COL   107     9   PHI   51.0
10   PHI   106    10   HOU   50.0
11   HOU   103    11   CHI   48.8
12   MTL   101    12   COL   47.6
13   DAL    98    13   DAL   46.6
14   SJE    96    14   NER   44.7
15   NER    93    15   SJE   42.3
16   CLB    87    16   CLB   38.8
17   TOR    81    17   TOR   31.9
18   CHV    77    18   CHV   28.9
19   DCU    65    19   DCU   22.2

The average number of games played per team is now 23.1 (K=8.68), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.630 (H=26).

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 08/12. At the moment, the Red Bulls appear to have the easiest route to the Supporters Shield.

Code:

Rank Team  Past     Rank Team Future    Rank Team Overall
 1   LAG   105.4     1   COL   110.6     1   CHV   104.1
 2   CHV   105.3     2   VAN   106.0     2   SJE   102.5
 3   POR   102.6     3   DAL   105.4     3   DAL   102.3
 4   SJE   102.1     4   SJE   103.4     4   COL   101.5
 5   DCU   101.8     5   RSL   103.0     5   LAG   101.5
 6   DAL   100.8     6   SEA   102.5     6   DCU   101.3
 7   NER   100.3     7   PHI   102.1     7   SEA   101.1
 8   MTL   100.2     8   CHV   101.7     8   VAN   101.1
 9   SEA   100.2     9   DCU   100.3     9   POR   100.9
10   CLB   100.0    10   SKC    99.8    10   RSL   100.9
11   RSL   100.0    11   CLB    99.5    11   CLB    99.9
12   NYR    99.3    12   TOR    99.4    12   TOR    99.2
13   TOR    99.2    13   CHI    98.8    13   MTL    99.0
14   VAN    98.8    14   HOU    98.4    14   NER    98.2
15   COL    98.2    15   POR    97.7    15   HOU    98.0
16   HOU    97.8    16   MTL    96.9    16   PHI    97.6
17   CHI    96.6    17   NER    93.8    17   CHI    97.4
18   PHI    95.8    18   LAG    93.4    18   SKC    97.0
19   SKC    95.8    19   NYR    89.4    19   NYR    96.4

 

Missed last week... oops. Entirely on me.

System is in love with Philadelphia right now, and I can't quite explain it. I think I'm coming to terms with the fact that it's lagging a week or so, but I like the predicator column. For Week 23, it correctly "predicted" the movement of teams in Week 24 13 out of 19 times. Dallas and Montreal two of the coldest teams in MLS right now. Who would've thunk it at the start of the season?

 

Colorado and Philadelphia with the hot hand this week. Kansas City seems generous at #4 and San Jose quickly rising after four wins from their last five. Columbus beats Toronto but can't quite get a head of them, though it looks like they should make a big move next week with a snapshot rating of 5. Wheels are totally gone for Dallas, they're approaching DC territory.

Overall the season is incredibly tight, and while it seems like we could say it every week, it should be an exciting end to the season. Prime example, Kansas City could have taken the SS lead on points last night, but instead are now only 4 points above the post season cut, and other teams have games in hand...

 

Here's the models I occasionally update. Both models use the same underlying concept: a poisson model for each individual game. It predicts the probability of each outcome of a match, and calculates the expected points from that match.

For the POS model, it uses the current standings, accounts for home field advantage, and simulates the actual remaining schedule. Basically, it is an end-of-season prediction model.
For the EAP model, it puts the team against an "average" opponent, and produces a single-game expected number of points. In order to make differences more apparent, I have multiplied that by the 34 games in an MLS season. Basically, this is a "power" rating of a team so far this season.

Code:

Team POS  EAP
POR  55.4 59.2
RSL  55.0 56.9
LAG  53.1 53.4
NYR  53.0 51.3
SKC  52.7 57.2
MON  52.6 47.9
HOU  52.0 52.8
SEA  51.5 50.9
PHI  50.7 50.4
VAN  50.1 50.6
COL  49.5 52.0
NER  48.0 52.5
FCD  46.5 42.8
CHI  45.3 41.6
SJE  43.8 37.6
CLB  41.9 45.3
TOR  32.3 33.7
CHV  30.1 26.9
DCU  23.2 20.9

Even though I have shown it to one decimal place, the data isn't really significant beyond the whole number points. This means that POR/RSL would be expected to land on the same number of points at the end of the season, as would LAG/NYR/SKC/MON.

For the west, the teams currently predicted for the playoffs by POS:
POR - 55
RSL - 55
LAG - 53
SEA - 52
VAN - 50

If these positions were to hold up, the wild card game would be Vancouver at Seattle. The winner of that game would then play Portland Home/Away. That would make for quite the interesting playoff schedule...

For the east:
NYR - 53
SKC - 53
MON - 53
HOU - 52
PHI - 51

Interestingly, in the east, changing a single loss into a win could theoretically put you from out of the playoffs to first. This is an extremely tight playoff race, and should be an interesting final stretch, almost no matter who you support.

 

10 teams within 5 points of each other. I love it. This has been a really good year for soccer fans I feel.

 

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 08/19.

Code:

Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points
 1  POR  118   1  POR  56.2
 2  RSL  111   2  RSL  54.7
 3  NYR  111   3  NYR  54.2
 4  COL  109   4  MTL  52.8
 5  LAG  108   5  LAG  52.7
 6  SEA  108   6  SKC  52.4
 7  VAN  108   7  SEA  51.7
 8  SKC  107   8  HOU  51.6
 9  PHI  107   9  PHI  51.2
10  HOU  105  10  VAN  50.1
11  MTL  103  11  COL  49.2
12  CHI  103  12  CHI  46.8
13  SJE  100  13  NER  46.8
14  NER   97  14  DAL  45.7
15  DAL   96  15  SJE  44.4
16  CLB   89  16  CLB  40.3
17  TOR   78  17  TOR  30.6
18  CHV   77  18  CHV  28.9
19  DCU   65  19  DCU  21.8

The average number of games played per team is now 24.0 (K=8.33), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.643 (H=29).

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 08/19.

Code:

Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall
 1  CHV  105.2   1  COL  113.9   1  CHV  104.1
 2  LAG  104.5   2  SJE  105.4   2  DAL  102.4
 3  DCU  103.0   3  VAN  103.9   3  SJE  102.1
 4  DAL  102.8   4  CLB  103.4   4  LAG  101.4
 5  SEA  102.2   5  MTL  103.0   5  SEA  101.4
 6  POR  101.7   6  CHV  101.7   6  VAN  101.4
 7  RSL  101.4   7  DAL  101.6   7  COL  101.3
 8  SJE  100.8   8  RSL  100.3   8  DCU  101.3
 9  TOR  100.4   9  HOU  100.2   9  RSL  101.1
10  VAN  100.3  10  SEA   99.8  10  POR  100.5
11  NYR   99.3  11  PHI   99.3  11  CLB   99.7
12  NER   99.0  12  POR   97.9  12  TOR   99.6
13  CHI   98.5  13  SKC   97.9  13  MTL   98.8
14  CLB   98.2  14  TOR   97.9  14  CHI   98.0
15  COL   97.4  15  DCU   97.1  15  HOU   97.9
16  HOU   96.9  16  CHI   96.9  16  NER   97.9
17  MTL   96.8  17  NER   95.3  17  PHI   97.5
18  PHI   96.8  18  LAG   93.8  18  SKC   97.1
19  SKC   96.8  19  NYR   89.4  19  NYR   96.7

 

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 08/26.

Code:

Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points
 1  RSL  115   1  RSL  56.3
 2  LAG  114   2  LAG  55.6
 3  POR  112   3  MTL  54.4
 4  SEA  111   4  SEA  53.5
 5  COL  109   5  POR  53.2
 6  CHI  106   6  NYR  51.9
 7  MTL  105   7  SKC  51.3
 8  NYR  105   8  HOU  50.2
 9  SKC  105   9  PHI  49.7
10  PHI  103  10  COL  49.3
11  VAN  103  11  NER  48.7
12  HOU  101  12  CHI  48.5
13  NER  101  13  VAN  47.6
14  SJE  100  14  DAL  47.1
15  DAL   99  15  SJE  44.3
16  CLB   90  16  CLB  39.7
17  TOR   79  17  TOR  30.7
18  CHV   77  18  CHV  29.3
19  DCU   65  19  DCU  21.3

The average number of games played per team is now 25.2 (K=7.95), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.644 (H=29).

Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 08/26.

Code:

Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall
 1  LAG  105.4   1  COL  113.1   1  CHV  104.4
 2  CHV  103.5   2  VAN  107.3   2  DAL  102.4
 3  POR  102.9   3  CHV  106.9   3  SJE  102.4
 4  RSL  101.9   4  MTL  105.9   4  VAN  102.1
 5  SJE  101.8   5  DAL  104.9   5  COL  101.6
 6  DAL  101.7   6  SJE  104.3   6  SEA  101.4
 7  SEA  101.4   7  DCU  102.2   7  POR  101.3
 8  DCU  100.4   8  SEA  101.4   8  LAG  101.1
 9  VAN  100.2   9  CLB  100.6   9  RSL  101.0
10  TOR   99.9  10  CHI   99.3  10  DCU  100.9
11  NYR   99.6  11  RSL   97.9  11  CLB   99.5
12  CLB   99.1  12  TOR   97.7  12  TOR   99.3
13  HOU   98.9  13  NER   97.2  13  MTL   98.2
14  SKC   98.4  14  POR   96.8  14  HOU   98.1
15  PHI   98.3  15  HOU   96.2  15  CHI   97.6
16  COL   98.0  16  PHI   95.6  16  PHI   97.6
17  NER   97.3  17  SKC   92.5  17  NER   97.3
18  CHI   96.9  18  LAG   89.2  18  SKC   97.0
19  MTL   95.0  19  NYR   88.1  19  NYR   96.9

 

Wasn't really sure what to expect after a crazy crazy week, but this actually seems about right. Seattle with a big jump, SKC with a big fall, Chivas not quite out of the cellar yet, but gaining momentum, and... I don't even really know what kind of commentary to add. Colorado not playing was maybe the only thing that kept them safe, given just how bizarre the weekend was. Everyone at the top and bottom seems to be upwardly mobile while everyone in the middle seems to be struggling.

 

Are you looking mainly at the ratings or the points projections? The interesting thing about the ratings is that yours still have a small lingering effect from last season, which ended with LAG's run to MLS Cup, while mine only incorporate this year's results. I suspect that LAG is also near the top in my points projections because they have the second-easiest remaining schedule based on current ratings.