I think attendance will be up next year. Look at the games beckham was supposed to play in. Next year we will have a full season of those sellouts, not a half...just a thought
I think it may be aggressive to think that Becks will pull the numbers he did in NY or DC again. I still think that if MLS holds water next year, it will be a very solid achievement given all the unknowns(specifically KC and SJ).
That's not the point. The point of my statement is that MLS has finally addressed a major cause for concern -- marginal growth or no growth in attendance, which was sending the signal that the sport wasn't catching on in this country. The new stats prove otherwise -- add that to the quality of the new investors (including the possible Seattle organization), SSS's, the Beckham/Blanco rule, vastly improved tv coverage, and improved public relations, and yes, investors should take note, especially since Bloomberg and the WSJ have been giving thumbs up!
Good numbers, yeah, I would think. Especially if he's actually...you know...playing well and consistently. But the lookie-lous may have gotten their fill the first time, so the record-type numbers we saw...may not be possible. If KC goes from 11,586 to, say, 9,500 (capacity, given the possibility of a Beckham-at-Arrowhead game to boost the other 14), that's an 18% drop for them, but in the course of 210 league games (an all-time high), it's not going to do huge damage to the overall league numbers.
Yes, Beckham/Blanco will possibly cause an attendance increase. But KC/SJ will certainly cause an attendance decrease. Both will draw lower than the league average because of their stadium sizes. Though KC's may not be much of a reduction -- they only averaged 11,586 this year. The big question is how it will all balance out. Teams that have room for improvement: Chicago, Chivas, Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, Houston, New England, Red Bull, Salt Lake Teams that have virtually no room for improvement: Kansas City, LA, Toronto, DC(?) Dallas has hit a solid, steady number. Colorado should have, and Columbus hopefully has. Chivas is unknown because of their short time around, and I'd say the same for Houston, though they appear to have probably reached a steady state already. Hopefully New England has turned it around after years of neglect. Red Bull... could still be waiting for that stadium. Who knows? Salt Lake should improve. I would expect the teams that have room to improve to basically cancel each other out -- some going up, some going down. With DC, I'm not recalling what their soccer configuration limit is. Pulling a league second best 20,967, I don't know if they have much room to go up. Looking at all of this, it just convinces me yet again that we'll do well to match this year's numbers next year. Of course, all of that goes out the window if MLS lands Ronaldinho. ...of course, I've been cautious all along. lawrenceterp, cautiously optimistic. He was right this year. I wonder what we'll get next year
The Houston Dynamo actually had a 2.6% increase over last year in games played at Robertson stadium.(15,478/2006-15,883/2007) The 70,000+ for the doubleheader game w/ FC Barcelona really inflated our #'s last year. We also had some really bad weather at the start off this season, which hurt us. Attendance goes down for everything during Houston's summers.
I want to revisit the question of median and mean for just a moment: If New England's mean of 16,787 is closest to the MLS mean of 16,770, does that make them MLS's meanest?
First, thanks for these numbers. Second, you have both Colorado and Columbus as COL. You might want to go with CLB for the Crew.
Look, I know the world doesn't work this way, but it's still fun to think about. If MLS keeps going up 8%, it'll average over 21K in 2010. In 2014, it would be 28,700+.
I know you are mainly talking just in terms of stadium size but I think it may beunwise to look at NE as having the ability to grow again next year. NE is coming off a 42% growth already and had 3 small double/triple headers which coupled with a maximum use of the Becks 4 game pack allowed them to have a great year. My guess is that NE will be an interesting sample of one for the entire league in 2008. Much like the league, I believe if NE holds steady with 2007, that would be an excellent achievement.
Folks be carefully of having too high a set of expectations around playoff attendances. Given the very short time frames involved, to this point attendances have dropped significantly for the playoffs...... Having said that this has been a huge year for MLS, some might even say a breakthrough. Its amazing to think that as recently as 5 years ago almost a third of all MLS games were to crowds under 10k. At DC United games the attendance jump up is obvious and we are regularly getting crowdes in the low to middle 20s compared to middle to upper teens. Clearly, the right DPs can have a significant effect on attendance. To date the 5 DPs I would say have had the following impact on Attendance and associated Interest in their respective clubs. Beckham - Huge positive impact (Moderate impact on field due to injury) Blanco - Strong positive impact (Significant impact on the field) Angel - Moderate positive impact (However Very Strong Team Impact that I think will be a major benefit to NYRB in the longer run) Reyna - Little or no impact (His contract should not be renewed) Denilson - Little or no impact (His contract should not be renewed)
Not that I disagree with this thought but can MLS actually do what you are asking? Isn't someone like Reyna on a multi year contract? Are these DP contracts only valid from year to year?
It's helpful to look at that, especially since we've only got two years in Houston, but over enough years, all of those factors, even a huge DH at Reliant, will tend to even out.
if NE got themselves a SSS stadium, and signed a big ticket name, they could be a jewel in the MLS crown.
Denilson is on a one year with an option, I believe. Don't recall exact details, but I know that MLS could drop him after this year.
Yeah, I'm only talking stadium size. It would be insane to expect anything like a repeat of this year's jump in New England. That's why I said that I expect the teams in my 'have room' list to all average out to no change. It was partly an exercise to see how much room MLS has available to it, in response to some other discussions on other older threads about MLS being limited by the smaller stadiums. And I don't think we're there yet. My point was basically that there's room there, and MLS could still improve in attendance next year, if things fall right. Another good B/B Rule signing. Good weather. Better than expected Beckham/Blanco attendances, and better than expected follow-up attendees. Hell, Chivas LA being in the SuperLiga and/or CONCACAF Champions WhateverItIs and showing well could make a big difference. I see lots of upside, and it doesn't surprise me that there are people expecting to do better next year. But as I've probably already established, I'm the cautiously pessimistic type
FCD has an option on Denilson after this season. In other words, it's hard to imagine that Denilson will be wearing the FCD shirt after this season. It was a calculated, relatively low-cost risk and it didn't work.
Chivas USA's drop in attendence should raise alarms at MLS HQ. I know their numbers were inflated last year from a doubleheader, but even with that factored in, they did lose a huge amount of people.... and that was after their best year when they made the playoffs! Couple that with the current trend towards "fan violence" at their matches, they may lose even more. We shall see... Tommy Mack
Tommy I like you, I really do. BUT geezus can we stop the Chivas bashing? that all you seem to do around here. There is little "fan violence". Shawn Hunter will get the gate numbers fixed next year I guarantee it, just sit back and watch. In the mean time come out and enjoy a playoff game at HDC Nov 3rd, on me.
Reyna shouldn't be dropped. That's like saying Brian McBride should have been left off the Crew because of all of his injuries and limited playing time and decreasing goal production after his first year. Reyna was why the RedBulls were the best team in MLS at the start of the season. He was one of the reasons why Angel decided to play for the RedBulls. He's been a positive influence on Jozy Altidore, Clint Mathis, Seth Stamler and Dane Richards. Let's reserve judgement on Reyna until the playoffs are over - and the coach and players have weighed in. Much like with Yallop - I don't think the results necessarily tell you the full story.