Leicester City

Discussion in 'Premier League' started by Soulflame_22, Dec 25, 2015.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here is what I typed from the video in Post 22.

    "SSAC16: How do you Stop Leicester City? Advanced Tactical Analysis in the English Premier League"

    Page 1: Overview
    Where did all this start?
    Opposition analysis using data
    Leicester City, the not-so-unlikely leaders
    How to stop the Foxes ¬– and did anyone?

    Page 2: Where did this all start?
    Econometric training – and 15 years of living with numbers
    Predictions for the 2006 World Cup
    Soccernomics and The Numbers Game
    Procuring detailed event data from Opta
    Serving clients including clubs, investment groups, coaches, and software developers

    Page 3: Opposition analysis using data
    Virtually all opposition analysis uses data
    Recorded data offer completeness and (some) objectivity
    We want to look at tens or hundreds of similar situations
    A case study: Leicester City's fast attacks from deep

    Page 4: Opposition analysis using data
    What is the team's style in attack and defense?
    Where on the field is the team strongest in attack?
    Where on the field is the team weakest in defense?
    Who are the pivotal players?
    How can we disrupt the things that work for them?

    Page 5: Leicester City, the not-so-unlikely leaders
    Well, maybe they looked unlikely...
    -Bottom of the Premier league halfway through the 2014-15 season
    -13 points from 19 matches, 0.7 points per match
    -Low payroll relative to Premier league leaders

    Page 6: Leicester City, the not-so-unlikely leaders
    But...
    -Bad luck had worsened the team's results
    -Signing Robert Huth strengthened the defense
    -Finished 14th with 1.5 points per match in second half

    Page 7: Leicester City, the not-so-unlikely leaders
    And...
    -Top analytics department built in part by Rob Mackenzie
    -Euro 50 million spent on new players over the summer
    -Hiring of Claudio Ranieri, former coach of Chelsea (finished 2nd in last season)
    So, take a 5th-place team, a great coach, and Euro 50 million!

    Page 8: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    What was Leicester's attacking style?
    A basic distinction: direct play versus build-up play
    Speed to outpace defenders and create advantages
    Patient passing to lull defenders and find opening
    Attacks from deep – about 1/3 to 1/2 of open play goals

    Page 9 had three soccer field diagrams.

    Page 10: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    Measuring end product
    Shot 1: Direct free kick, 35 yards from goal, 30-degree angle (arrow) 8% chance of scoring
    Shot 2: Header from corner, 8 yards from goal, 5-degree angle (arrow) 15% chance of scoring
    "0.08 expected goals (xG) versus 0.15 expected goals (xG)"

    Page 11: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    For each category of possessions, ask two questions:
    -Is there a shot?
    -How good a shot is it?
    Average expected goals across all the possessions:
    (no shot, 0.13, no shot, no shot, 0.07) (arrow) 0.04 xG average

    Pages 12, 13, and 14 were graphs.

    Page 15: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    Slowing Leicester down destroys their chances of scoring
    -Push them to the flanks and make them pass more
    Who makes their direct attacks go so quickly?
    Need to look at all attacks, not just those ending in shots

    Page 16: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    Order matters: Who starts attacks in Leicester's own half?
    First or second pass or dribble of attack:
    Drinkwater, central midfielder, 206, 12%
    Schmeichel, goalkeepers, 174, 10%
    Kante, defensive midfielder, 161, 10%
    Morgan, central defender, 129, 8%
    Fuchs, left back, 121, 7%
    15 others, 530, 53% (the ratio of count to percentage for the 15 others doesn't match the ratio of count to percentage for the 5 listed players, and the frequency adds up to 1,321)

    Page 17 is a graph about Drinkwater and Page 18 is a graph about Kante.

    Page 19: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    The most dangerous attacks start through the midfielders
    -Disrupt both Drinkwater and Kante
    The Economist published this online on 19 December 2015
    What happened to performance in matches 17-28?
    (Against just slightly tougher opposition...)

    Page 20 is a repeat of a graph from earlier and Page 21 is a new graph. The presentation went back and forth between Page 20 and Page 21.

    Page 22: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    In matches 17-28, who started the attacks?
    First or second pass or dribble of attack:
    Fuchs, left back, 14%, +7%
    Schmeichel, goalkeeper, 13%, +3%
    Drinkwater, central midfielder, 11%, -1%
    Kante, defensive midfielder, 10%, 0%
    Simpson, right back, 9%, 4%
    16 others, 45%, -8%
    The first percent is the value and the second percent is the value minus the value from the table on Page 16.

    Page 23: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    Tackles, challenges, blocks, and fouls on the midfielders:
    Matches 1-16: 3.7% of events for Drinkwater and 3.3% of events for Kante
    Matches 17-28: 4.6% of events for Drinkwater and 4.8% of events for Kante

    Page 24: How to stop the Foxes – and did anyone?
    Later opposition pressed Drinkwater and Kante more
    Drinkwater and Kante were still prolific but less effective
    Drinkwater missed two matches, both open play xG losses
    Shots per game from possessions starting in the defensive half fell by 50%; xG from these possessions fell by 25%
    Pressing has a cost in defending the goal – but worth it! Looking at the changes in shots per game and xG, the shots were better later in the season, meaning that the average xG per shot went up.
     
  2. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  3. LorneMarvello

    LorneMarvello Member+

    Jul 1, 2014
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Its over Greatness has been done
     
  4. Orlando Rays

    Orlando Rays We're not gonna let the elevator break us down
    Staff Member

    Nov 5, 2007
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    BlueDamian, flippin269 and Boandlkramer repped this.
  5. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Congrats to probably the greatest underdog story in history. If only I had bet 20 EUROS on them!

    See you all in the CL next year!
     
  6. jetdog9

    jetdog9 Member+

    Nov 14, 2007
    Bay Area, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Unreal! From a neutral fan's perspective, about the greatest story ever...

    Too bad for Spurs, if they had won it would have been a huge story as well, even if not so huge.

    I guess Leicester and Tottenham going 1-2 is pretty great, though.
     
  7. dinis

    dinis New Member

    May 3, 2016
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Lithuania
    Leicester is Champions of England.
     
  8. Nerroth

    Nerroth Member

    Feb 9, 2008
    Ontario, Canada
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
  9. VogelsingerKlinsmann

    Jun 22, 2014
    Will NBC/USA show the coronation?
     
  10. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  11. BlueDamian

    BlueDamian Member+

    Jun 7, 2005
    In the shade
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    EvanJ repped this.
  12. LOFNICK

    LOFNICK New Member

    Jun 29, 2016
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    I hope so but I think it's gonna be between Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City with their new managers


    Verzonden vanaf mijn iPhone met Tapatalk
     
  13. footman2033

    footman2033 Member

    Aug 2, 2015
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Leicester City will probably have trouble staying in a league this season, especially due to selling Kante and Mahrez!
     
  14. Sportlad

    Sportlad Member

    Jul 12, 2016
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    I think they'll stay up comfortably, but repeating last season's success? Unlikely
     
  15. footman2033

    footman2033 Member

    Aug 2, 2015
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I am not so sure for staying in the league, given how competitive it has became!
     

Share This Page