And CONMENBOL is widely seen as the most difficult qualifying region in football even though they have the highest percentage of qualifiers. This is the CONMENBOL that had Argentina panicking and Chile missing the cut. Which is not an outlier. Every cycle one of the big boys gets pushed to the limit. So I'm not really sure of your point other than CONMENBOL is freaking hard too and a point away at altitude in Bolivia is not a bad thing no matter who you are. As for the "we should reliably winning against ..." umm just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. After 30 years of following the Nats one word I wouldn't use when describing Concacaf away is "reliable". Even in the Caribbean where it's easier it's still a challenge. Ever heard the phrase "sticky wicket"? Well they literally have those in the middle of the pitch!
Bet we'd destroy Australia in a friendly, though. I think we're the only NT with such a huge disparity between results in friendlies and results in games that matter. Either our players get nervous in competitive games and we only see a shadow of what we could do, or no one but us takes friendlies seriously.
I've long observed that many American teams have suffered from wavering confidence when the matches get more important or against higher competition. At those points some of the deficiencies become even more visible. Something I admire most about our rivals to the south is that, more times than not, they play confidently regardless of the opponent because they have a belief in something they do very well: maintaining possession and allowing the ball to do the work. Of course, they have their shortcomings which show in the every Round-of-16, but I at least admire how they still go after it with some level of confidence. The US needs to develop something they can always be comfortable and confident in.