This could be the best chance for Ireland in many a long year, certainly their best chance since they lost narrowly to the Aussies in the quarters 19-18 in 1991. Theirs is an interesting group, a so-called group of death with Namibia, Georgia, France (hosts) and Argentina. The conventional thinking is that Ireland should qualify 2nd behind France as both will beat the other three. There is a fear by some of Argentina though perhaps this is overplayed. Still Argentina did beat Ireland in 2 tests recently in the Southern Hemisphere, though it might be foolish to read too much into those results as Ireland most definitely played with a B or B+ side while the Argentineans were reasonably close to full strength. But maybe Argentina's strength are overrated, though Ireland would do well to remember that were knocked out in France in '95 by them. France is the biggest worry in this group. Truth is Ireland should have beaten them in the 6 Nations and didn't and again should have won the title from them but lost it in bizarre circumstances. They are the equal of France, perhaps even more so, but France are playing at home. The real question to be answered is how many points does home-field advantage give France? And France have a difficult enough start facing Argentina in the opening game of the tournament. A draw there would be very nice indeed. Figure that the 3 big teams will beat the 2 small ones by very healthy scores, the group then comes down to a round-robin between France, Ireland and Argentina. Ireland definitely have the beating of Argentina and maybe of France. Doing this would mean they would (probably) avoid New Zealand in the quarters, facing Scotland or Italy instead, both of whom are very beatable. That then would lead to a semi-final against probably South Africa which might be curtains. But as this is knock out, it's speculative as to which team will or won't qualify where. But the bottom line is that Ireland probably must top the group if they are to go further than their best ever quarter final slot. They are ranked number 5 in the world, but are a ridiculous 20-1 to win the whole thing. The reason for the long odds just might be that while they have one of the best XVs in the world at the moment, their depth from 16-30 is suspect. They desperately need an injury and suspension free World Cup. O'Driscoll and D'Arcy are quite probably the best center pairing playing rugby certainly in the northern hemisphere, perhaps in the world. The rest of the backs are strong, though questions remain about the forwards. Common consensus seems to be that the forwards won't lose it, but neither will they win it. Bottom line, this is Brian O'Driscoll's generation of players' time to shine. They have the tools to make it to the semis - and from there who knows? - the question is, will they?
A good post and I pretty much agree with all of what you say. This is the O'driscoll generation's time to shine. Of course some of them will be around in four years time but now they are at the pinnacle of their powers and will give the top teams alot of problems. I most certainly do not think coming second in the group means curtains. We will play the All Blacks in the Millenium Stadium. Imagine the scene with the roof closed over and 60,000+ Irish fans cheering on Paul O'Connell, the tears of pride rolling down the Bull Haye's eyes during the anthem and our backline floating like butterflies and stinging like bees at the AB defence. It's important to note that while the AB's have been beating all around them they haven't met Ireland in quite a while and there is a certain unease in the NZ media about the mystique of the Irish lads who have beaten both S. Africa and Australia with quite a bit to spare only 12 months ago. However thats all depending we come 2nd. I think the French game will be 50/50 and we could well top the group... I cannot wait for it...
Did your nose grow a little typing that out? Argentina played three new caps in the first international. Contepomi only played one of the two internationals, as he was receiving his medical degree from Trinity (!) on the day of the second Test. Roncero, Hasan, Ledesma, Pichot, Borges and Corleto were missing from both internationals. So the idea that they were playing a "reasonably close to full strength" squad is rubbish. It was as battle of the B teams, and Argentina's won. Argentina won because they are very very good at home. Also the 1995 World Cup was in South Africa. Ireland have pretty much an equal chance of getting to the semifinals or being knocked out in the first round. Argentina have strengths Ireland don't have, in that they have a very strong scrum, good flankers in Durand and Schustermann, and an excellent halfback pairing in Pichot and Contepomi. They, however, have weaknesses in Ireland's strengths - their lineout isn't great (though Ledesma is a very good hooker), and their centres are are weak. It's going to be a battle of Contepomi's boot vs O'Gara's boot. France have rounded into some nice form before the World Cup and looked authoritative against England. They look capable everywhere. Laporte even helped himself out by (for once) picking his best backline. By the way, Ireland beating NZ is barking. It's not going to happen!
Game on Sunday vs. Namibia is LIVE on Setanta Sports USA at 2 pm. EST. France vs. Argentina is LIVE on Friday on Setanta Sports USA at 2pm EST.
Thats great for US fans... Unfortunately for us in Ireland we have to put up with the shamateurs on TV3 for our coverage. They are linked with UTV in the UK who have the rights. ITV is also not a patch on the BBC. Full of adverts and glib oneline merchants...
Great performance by the Argies, they were hanging on for a while were tiring towards the end. But that really throws the group wide open now.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/rugby_union/6985918.stm Skrela's out for 2 games. Game today should be good.
When you beat the reigning world champions in the final, you're very worthy world champions. Nkosisikel'i.