How many points do we need for a playoff spot ?

Discussion in 'Columbus Crew' started by TRUJDUB, Jul 22, 2019.

  1. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Seattle was helping but i feel like they might choke
     
  2. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Haha Glad i was wrong thanks Seattle
     
  3. CybrSlydr

    CybrSlydr Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Jun 30, 2013
    Casper, WY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm sticking with my original, "One more than we'll get".
     
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  4. Tobias C

    Tobias C Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Mar 6, 2014
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I dont even care. I want us to win the rest of our games but more so because I want to know that the teams in an increasingly better place chemistry wise and what not going into next year. I dont care about our end result this season. I kissed that goodbye months ago.

    All I care about now is none of our promising players getting any serious injuries.
     
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  5. Alneri

    Alneri Member

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Aug 3, 2018
    This has actually been my thought on this "can we make the playoffs question". I just have this weird feeling we get matched up with Atlanta. Our fans get overconfident because of the regular season against them. They smoke us and someone like Diaz gets hurt with a season long injury.

    I'll pass on the extra games this year. I know tournaments are all about who is hot now and one offs can be won by anyone, but we simply are not good enough. To think we truly could take down Atlanta, then Philly, followed by NYCFC, and, my God, LAFC in consecutive games is ludicrous.
     
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  6. catfish9

    catfish9 Member+

    Jul 14, 2011
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Looks like we should all root for Tide Pod FC. They play both teams right above us in standings. Be great of they could knock off a few W's against them which may allow us to jump up a few spots. They just did us a solid by beating Montreal. We aren't making playoffs but if we can get to 8th or 9th, that would be good heading into off season.
     
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  7. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yep. Orlando just needs to drop points once (draw or loss) in their last three (at Hou, at Cincy, Fire). Chicago needs to drop 3 points or more in their last three (at Cincy, TFC, at Orl).

    They play each other the last game. I would like that game to be irrelevant. Scared of Chicago going WDW to close us out. Cincy plays ATL midweek before the Fire game. Though both are at home.

    MTL has a trip to Zlatan, then home games vs ATL, and NYRB left, with 2 Canadian Championship games with TFC sprinkled in. They need to drop points twice. But a win (or draw) vs RB could help us.

    Short version:
    Team, PTS, Wins, GD, Sched
    6. NYRB: 41, 12, +1: @Por, PHI, DC, @MTL
    7. NE: 40, 10, -7: RSL, @ Por, NYC, @ATL.
    ------------
    8. MTL: 37, 11, -15: TFC, @LAG, @TFC, ATL, NYRB. TFC games are Canadian Championship.
    9. CHI: 37, 9, +5: @cincy, TFC, @ORL.
    10. ORL: 36, 9, -4: @Hou, @cincy, CHI.
    11. CREW: 34, 9, -9: @Van, PHI, @TFC.

    NYRB at Portland is midweek. As is Leg1 of the TFC/MTL Canadian Championship. And ATL visits Cincy.
     
  8. stanger

    stanger BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 29, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would rather the season be over than root for TidePod FC
     
  9. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No way.

    Plus, think of it as rooting against Chicago. Surely you can manage that?
     
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  10. stanger

    stanger BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 29, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Giant meteor
     
  11. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Portland is not helping us.

    Lost at home to DC on Sunday.

    Losing inside of 5' at home to NYRB.
     
  12. Kryptonite

    Kryptonite Fancy Title Here

    Apr 10, 1999
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Portland just missed by inches in the 83rd.
     
  13. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And went on to lose 2-0.

    Both DC & NYRB have put themselves out of our reach with wins at Portland.

    The Timbers couldmake it a trifecta by losing to NE at home on the 25th unless the Revs lose to RSL at the Razor thos weekend.

    On Sunday we had four teams we could catch in theory. Revs or bust now. RSL, at Portland, NYC, at ATL. They need 4 points to eliminate us.
     
  14. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I’m not sure we can win every game , RSL is not likely to beat NE so that is going to make this difficult. If we beat Vancouver and RSL wins then our chances go way up. But NE still has a gm in hand . Your right but If Portland lost at home Wednesday to NE that would be pathetic
     
  15. KCbus

    KCbus Moderator
    Staff Member

    United States
    Nov 26, 2000
    Reynoldsburg, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I’m not sure why you gave up on RSL beating New England so quickly. RSL is good, and the Revs have been reeling.
     
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  16. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Even a draw would help. I mean, does anyone think the Revs are favored to win any of their last 3 (at Port, NYC, at ATL)?
    If Citeh & Atlanta have something to play for, they are hurting.

    The most difficult part for us will be winning out. Though getting in on 41 pts is not impossible, it requires a TON of help with MTL, Chicago, & Orlando as well.
     
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  17. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    RSL is on the road and we are on the road if we win and NE lost somehow than things will get interesting but likely NE will win and the season is officially over
     
  18. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    RSL not losing is the hardest part they are 3-3-9 on the road which is better than last year. They are a horrible away team and I think NE knows they need to win this gm and will go all out for the win
     
  19. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Furthermore the only team worse than us at home is Vancouver & Cincinnati so I do think we can win this gm.
     
  20. KCbus

    KCbus Moderator
    Staff Member

    United States
    Nov 26, 2000
    Reynoldsburg, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There’s more to the game than “going all out to win.”
     
  21. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #196 TrueCrew, Sep 20, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2019
    They get points 40% of the time on the road (6/15). That is not horrible.

    I think the odds of us winning out are far less than 40%.

    For crying out loud, do the math.

    Crew on the road: 4-2-9
    Crew at home: 5-5-6

    Chances of a Crew road win = 4/15.
    Chances of a Crew home win = 5/16.

    Chances of running the table: 0.266666 × 0.2666666 × 0.3125 = 0.022222. 2.2%

    40% > 2.2%. Not even close.
     
  22. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I know and concur however i think the players will be focused and up for the task . I hope I’m wrong just to keep our playoff pipe dreams alive
     
  23. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I agree with you on numbers but I’m looking at form and what i expect . I don’t think Vancouver is going up come out playing great in front of a sell out crowd. I think the attendance will be miserable and so will their effort after we score the first goal.
     
  24. WhiteHartShame

    WhiteHartShame Member+

    Nov 16, 2008
    Columbus, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If we beat Vancouver (like we should), and Chicago, Orlando, Montreal, and New England all lose(highly unlikely, but possible), we will be within 3 points of a playoff spot with 2 matches remaining. It should be an interesting evening. Do you believe in miracles?
     
  25. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Zone 14
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Roughly half the points we lost through Caleb Porter’s horrific in game and specifically end of game management.
     

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