http://www.soccermetricsblog.com/2010/10/league-tables-and-team-quality.html is a blog I read that links to http://plus.maths.org/issue46/risk/index.html. The latter website does calculations based on the season being played indefinitely many times still with a balanced schedule and deals with the actual results and what the distribution of points would be by random chance if all 20 clubs were equally good. It says that for the 2006-2007 EPL, the only three clubs where a 95% confidence interval for that club includes only the top ten or only the bottom ten positions are champion Manchester United, second place Chelsea, and last place Watford. It says that Watford is the only club that has a more than 50% chance at being in the bottom three and deserving to be relegated.