German Federal Election 2017 - or alternatively "the end"

Discussion in 'Elections' started by White/Blue_since1860, Nov 9, 2016.

  1. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What the hell was that?
     
  2. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    It goes to show the youth(this is from a youth program) the upcoming greatness of socialism under Schulz
     
  3. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Interesting article(also in English) on Russian hackers and how they could influence the election

    War without blood
    A Russian general is working on digital battle plans; hackers are attacking Germany's federal government; and a man in the Crimea wants to plunge Germany into chaos with fake news. There's a fierce struggle in progress around the Bundestag election in September.

    http://www.zeit.de/digital/internet...fake-news-manipulation-russia-hacker-cyberwar
     
  4. noSpinFactor

    noSpinFactor Red Card

    Nov 17, 2016
    Club:
    --other--
    #54 noSpinFactor, Mar 3, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2017
    America is no longer the only cyber terrorist on the block. Sooner than later China will make it's move and join the party. Seems Trump is attempting to pre-emptive strike (with his rhetoric and economical attacks) but China is still decades if not generations away from making their move. As they see Western Civilization nose dive - might as well grab popcorn and wait for us to self-destruct
     
  5. noSpinFactor

    noSpinFactor Red Card

    Nov 17, 2016
    Club:
    --other--
    haha. Do you ever foresee Germans getting over their Nazi complex? I read multinational forums and Germans are always taking the same tiresome angles, where is the diversity in thought?
     
  6. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    First time polls see a majority aside from Merkel

    [​IMG]
     
  7. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    current standing with possible coalitions

    "R2G"
    [​IMG]

    "GroKo"
    [​IMG]

    "Jamaika"
    [​IMG]
     
  8. noSpinFactor

    noSpinFactor Red Card

    Nov 17, 2016
    Club:
    --other--
    Was this discussed?


    Report: Germany planned to close border at height of 2015 refugee crisis
    As thousands of refugees walked to Germany in September 2015, Merkel's government was ready to close the border, a report has found. The plan was stopped at the last minute only because no one wanted the responsibility.
    http://www.dw.com/en/report-germany...r-at-height-of-2015-refugee-crisis/a-37817614




    Good lord, how can she be rewarded with yet another term. I dunno if Schulz is the answer but much like Hillary, it might be best for Mrs.Merkel to ride off into the sunset.
     
  9. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    She is basically the only adult running a major western country and has been the only adult in the room since she first won office. She is not perfect. She mishandled the refugee crisis, but everyone did -- she acted out of a humanitarian impulse. I's take her over the last four presidents we have had
     
  10. noSpinFactor

    noSpinFactor Red Card

    Nov 17, 2016
    Club:
    --other--
    From my understanding, as you said "acted out of a humanitarian impulse" was the first time in her career that she did act out of character. In a way, I hope for her and Germany's sake that she is given the opportunity to rebound. Otherwise Hitler and Merkel jokes would be nauseating.
     
  11. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Germany's Saarland state in bellwether vote for Merkel today
     
  12. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  13. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Yep, conservative voters turned up in angst of a red-red coalition. Doesnt matter much though. Saarland has less inhabitants than Munich. And the current minister president was pretty popular. so there's that
     
  14. LastBoyscout

    LastBoyscout Member+

    Mar 6, 2013
    China doesn't really need to make any other moves that they are already making. Everything seems to be going great for them. They basically already are a superpower, but at the moment they handle it a lot smarter than the US does. At least to Europeans and other far away countries they come of as rather unthreatening more like they are looking for cooperation rather than dominion. How this whole thing develops if and when a larger part of Chinese society are reaping the benefits of better living standards and better education will be a very interesting phase in their development.


    I really don't think it was a humanitarian impulse. I think she made that decision like she made other controversial decisions in the past - by looking what the popular opinion is. What a lot of people forget is that - according to several polls at the time - the majority of the German population was supportive of a more welcoming stance toward refugees. That majority didn't last long after the fact however but hindsight is 20-20.

    Also it is important to realize that a lot of those refugees where already inside the EU at the time, being a great burden to other EU members in a time where the EU was under a great deal of scrutiny and anti EU sentiment was on the rise. Opening the borders and not insisting on the Dublin 2 or 3? rules (border countries basically having to deal with refugees on their own) be held up relieved some of this pressure. Especially because Germany only a few years back blocked new EU rules concerning the joint treatment and distribution of refugees, basically because the current rules greatly benefit non border countries (like Germany).

    She tried to sell it as a humanist measure. I think that was the biggest mistake she made to be honest because it kicked off a secondary wave of opportunists trying to enter Europe as refugees from other countries, mainly from North Africa (but also eastern Europe) which have a really really low chance to actually be accepted as refugees overloading the already overloaded system even more and are having a rather negative effect on the whole refugee situation.
     
  15. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't mean to sound rude, but what is -- a bellwether or something that does not matter?

    As for Saarland itself, I was surprised to learn that it has mostly been lead by the CDU over its short history.
     
    ceezmad repped this.
  16. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    It's been an atmospherical test cause the incumbent minister president was one of Merkel's biggest allies and if she had fallen it would have been interpreted as a writing on the wall that Merkel is bound to fall as well. It has no meaning though as to how the general elections will turn out cause Saarland is so small. A German Rhode Island so to say.

    The real bellwether vote is NRW in May. 17 mil. inhabitants. More than the entire Netherlands.
     
  17. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So what you are saying is that if Merkel coalition loses in NRW, then it is a bellwether, but if they win then it is not very important.
     
  18. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    No. Angie can win in NRW as well (or at least get a decent result) and it would be a sign for the general elections. But from the last figures Ive seen it is unlikely.

    Her predecessor lost NRW and announced early elections due to that
     
  19. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    NRW is a place where there has been one CDU Minister-President in 50 years and that was for one term (2005-2010). I would think it would be easy for the SPD to hold that.
     
  20. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    These times are over. The current red-green coalition has lost their majority in polls. Even if they include die Linke as a 3rd partner they are in a stalemate with CDU, FDP and AfD on the other side. It's 50-47 at the moment. Thats within the margin of error. And its pretty much a reflection of the country as a whole. SPD would comfortably win this if workers wouldnt run away to AfD

    [​IMG]

    The only thing that could save SPD is the incumbent minister president Lore Kraft is popular while the overall government isnt. The greens are in a bit of a rough patch in polls but SPD and the Left need them
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  21. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
  22. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I still think that Angie will pull it off. Having said that, in the event that Martin is the winner, will that change dramatically Germany politics towards the EU? From what I have been able to read about him, that should not be the case, right?
     
  23. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The SPD also has more options to form coalitions correct? in the very real chance that no party gets a majority of the vote.
     
  24. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    We are currently at a fundamental shift in the political landscape and it is mainly due to the advent of AfD. Up until now 2 party coalitions were enough to build majorities but this changes and in the future 3 parties will likely be needed. Except for a grand coaltion of course. But what we are talking about here is undiscovered country.

    The natural 3 party coaltion for the SPD is R2G (red, red, green) but as it looks now it wont be enough. Then some high party officials have been mentioning the possibilty of a so called traffic light coalition with the FDP replacing the Left(red, yellow, green) but the FDP is very pro business and would find themselves in a coaltion with two partners who want higher taxes for the wealthy so thats hardly feasible. But it is a theoretical possibility. Another scenario is that even if a 3 party coalition had a majority they continue the grand coalition if they are bigger than the CDU so that they could replace Merkel as chancellor with Schulz. Then there is scenarios of minority governments but that hasnt happened on the federal level so far. So again that would be undiscovered territory.
     
  25. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    In paralell to NRW there will also be state elections in the high North and it looks like the red green government could hold the state

    [​IMG]
     

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