A coalition government? Isn't that what's happening in Germany? It hasn't been a complete failure has it?
France has a semi-presidential system where like with the US the power lies with the president. In Germany and the UK it lies with the parliament as the head of government is part of it and dependend on it. So in the case of Germany governing parties hold and control power, but in France the assemble doesnt really hold the upper hand in power and Macron would be completely independant from majorities in assemble. Since both are independent from each other more or less like in the case of the American president and the congress there is no need to work together but more incentives to push your own agenda. Then there is the political culture of all or nothing and corporatism as seen in Denmark, Austria or Germany where a compromise is a good thing does not exist in France. A compromise is firstly seen as a rotten compromise. So how will parties sell them to their electorates? Babaorum rightfully expects to see this coalition breaking once the hardships of daily politics come along.
Agree. Having said that, I still think a majority is doable for Macron. His movement + PS and some centrists may be able to cobble together a governing one.
Which of the non-French of you recognize the overseas departments by shape. I admit I only recognize French Guiana, New Caledonia and maybe Reunion.
Yes, probably. But he'll have a problem of legitimacy, just like Hollande before him : only 1/4 of the citizens voted for him in the first round. In a presidential -or semi-presidential- system it's a low, very low figure.
Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyane, Réunion, Mayotte, Nouvelle Calédonie, Polynésie, Wallis et Futuna, Saint Pierre et Miquelon, Saint Martin / Saint Barthélémy.
It's interesting because the 5th Republic really enters a new era. When it was founded its aim was precisely to end the instability that caracterized the 4th Republic parlementarian system... and it worked quite well for decades until recently, as long as there was bipolarism. The current system is not really adjusted for quadripolarism. It will be interesting to see how it will evolve. If the president has no majority or an unstable one, there is a chance that the power of the prime minister and the government will raise,
What are the chances that Melenchon would have made it to the next round if Hamon dropped out before the vote? Would most of his votes have gone to Melenchon?
The two major parties have failed to modernize their country - that is why they are on the brink of extinction. Socialists have failed to protect workers and basically de-industrialised the country, conservatives have failed to modernize themselves(gay marriage) and protect the rural middle class. The youth unemployment is sky high. Integration of mostly muslim immigrants has failed. Plus an aversion between voters and establishment where voters very well recognize they have been betrayed by their elites while the elites feel ashamed for what their former great nation has come to. For real, they feel ashamed and that is why they hold contempt for their peasants. One would think the 3rd or 4th constitution would work better with such majorities. Macron could build a coalition with Fillon (likely) or Melonchon(unlikely) and become prime minister
I think Melenchon siphoned most of Macron votes already. The rest would have supported Macron. As a matter of fact, close to 90% have already announced their support for him.
I think it is a pretty caricatural to say that the two major parties have failed to modernize the country. France is a fairly advanced and modern country any way you look at it and, for that matter,it has been lead by either the PS of the Right parties the last 50 years. They are not in the brink of extinction either, they will both do fairly well at the next election for the congress / legislature in June. Actually, Fillion did not win simply because of his scandals. After the "Les Republicains" primary, he was largely in the lead and would have won if not for his personal issues.
No it is not, this is just hyperbolic.....They are not going to disappear. Both parties, as a matter of fact, will fare pretty well the next legislative elections. In 2002, the PS did not make it to the second round, with Jospin getting 17 % behind Chirac and Le Pen pere, but was still a major player in French politics. They won legislative and presidential elections after that.
I know and this is both major parties not even being able to compete for the most important player in the whole system. The system has now this dent showing the two major parties have lost the entitlement to rule the country - it doesnt really matter how they fare later this year. The question will only be how unimportant and neglectable they become.
What you are doing there is just wishful thinking or pretending having a crystal ball. Doesn't work that way though. Institutional parties don't just disappear of become irrelevant over on bad electoral results.
Dude, that does not mean the PS is going towards extinction. You could pull the 2002 elections and see similar results for Lionel Jospin. Guess what, 12 yrs later the PS won the presidential election.
You can bring the 2002 elections up as often as you want it doesnt change the point that both major parties were shown the door. BOTH. And you also seem to hold on to the point that they are not going to disappear. who said that? they will become neglectable which is as good as extinct
I am bringing the 2002 election simply to show you that the PS did not become "neglectable" despite similar results. You want to keep harping on your points despite your obvious ignorance of France politics and its dynamics. It is becoming, as usual, a pointless and tedious discussion with you.
PS have thousands of militants and elected people around the country It's clear as crystal it will not disappear. Back in the 50's 60's it reached similar low figures and yet it became again one of the two major parties from the 70's -thanks to Mitterrand- to now. Such large structures don't suddenly disappear. Better yet : the Republican party mainly lost due to Fillon's fault. If it wan't for him, they would probably have reached the fsecond round round. There will always be a conservative party in France, just like in other democracies. We'll see that in the legislative elections following the presidential elections. I bet they'll be strong.
This is a very shortsighted view that also neglects similiar shifts in the political landscape elsewhere in Europe. It might an accurate description of what is now, but not what is happening next
Political parties can become 'neglectable', that's right. But it takes decades. Two examples : 1- the old radical party that dominated for 50 years the 3rd Republic with Clemenceau and all. It is now neglectable. But it was a very, very slow process. 2- the communist party : very strong in the 50's, 60's, 70's and declining since then (Mitterrand -again him- politically 'killed' it). It is now weak but still has militants and elected people, and somewat raises again thanks to its alliance with Mélenchon. What I mean is that political parties don't suddenly disappear. They' re like stars : they still shine for a long time even after their 'death'.
I had this idea as a kid that humanity was moving toward something greater. Maybe it was too much Star Trek, but I grew up thinking the EU was Europe's way to stop having wars. Sure, we had this temper tantrum out of the Middle East from a few radicals who weren't benefiting from the globalization and oil wealth of their societies. The species was moving out into outer space. We were tackling poverty, climate change. Countries were embracing self-government while unifying on the big problems. It is unbelievable for me to imagine that we might be witnessing the collapse of this positive future because a bunch of lazy, slothful Baby Boomers in three Western European countries are unhappy with a few minarets. Absolutely unbelievable.