Fighting Confirmation Bias

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by DHC1, Sep 11, 2018.

  1. ttrevett

    ttrevett Member+

    Apr 2, 2002
    Atlanta, GA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Patience sometimes depends on your perspective. If we're Germany, we could be patient because players with the technical skills of Zelalem are near the baseline of acceptable talent for die Mannschaft. Whereas, from an American point of view can still count the number of players that have his technique by memory. So, we don't have the luxury of playing the long game. We need to jump at any possibility of augmenting our shallow talent pool.
     
  2. cleansheetbsc

    cleansheetbsc Member+

    Mar 17, 2004
    Club:
    --other--
    No we do have the long game. And we must. Historically, we seldom have an 18-20 yr old player ready to jump to the top level of US Soccer. American players have historically matured in the 22-25 age (just like almost all players that come through a college system in pro sports in the US).

    That may finally be changing, but in general we don't have the 'nuance' to jump into the pro game at such an early age.
     
  3. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting thread, I want to distinguish though between situations where my opinion turns out to be wrong and where I could (should) have known it at the time, ones where your own bias is preventing you from seeing reality. Versus situations where even in hindsight you like the choice even if it didn't work.

    For me and example of the first was Landon Donovan. I thought he was a great player, and clearly the best of that generation but after 2006 I never thought he would make an impact at the W.C.. I thought he was too soft, and was angry that he hadn't tried to stick it out at Bayer. Thankfully I was totally and COMPLETELY wrong!

    Another is Atlanta being a success in MLS. I didn't think Soccer had a chance in SEC country.

    An example of the other situation is Bruce coming back. I still think it was a no brainer even though it didn't work out. We needed someone with knowledge of the US player pool, Concacaf Qualifying, and the World Cup. The center of that Venn Diagram is pretty small.
     
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  4. olephill2

    olephill2 Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Club:
    Watford FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm liking this thread - thanks for starting it, @DHC1. Here are a few of mine:
    • I remember watching the 2007 FIFA U-20 World Cup and thinking that US team would produce at least 4-6 important USMNT players. In particular, I thought Danny Szetela had a great tournament and would turn into a dynamo as a #8 for the US. I thought Freddy Adu was a dominant #10, Jozy Altidore a talisman #9 (I was right about that one when you look at his international strike rate), that Robbie Rogers would turn into a quality winger for us, that Michael Bradley would likely be part of the setup, and that guys like Anthony Wallace, Amaechi Igwe and Gabriel Ferrari would become USMNT players as well. I was wrong about many of these players and it was a sobering eventual revelation that success at the youth level doesn't always translate to the senior level.

    • On a similar topic, I remember watching some of the Nike youth friendlies back in 2007-2008 timeframe, when a U-17 squad composed of guys like Charles Renken, Stefan Jerome and Joe Gyau beat Brazil, and thinking there were some certain future USMNT difference makers on that team, Jerome and Renken in particular. As it turns out, injuries derailed Renken's career before his 18th birthday, and Jerome never panned out.

    • After 2006, I remember being really down on Landon Donovan after a disappointing World Cup (which had followed a pretty ineffectual 2005 year for him). But from 2008-2010, he was absolutely dominant for the USMNT and scored or assisted a ridiculously high percentage of our goals, and he completely rebuilt his image in my eye. Today, I look at him as clearly the best USMNT player of all-time and my all-time favorite player.

    • I remember one of Bruce Arena's first interviews in late 2016 when he took over the USMNT job - it was with the MLS ExtraTime Radio guys, and he talked about how he wanted to get better passers into the midfield and mentioned guys like Benny Feilhaber, Sacha Kljestan and Darlington Nagbe by name, and I remember thinking we were probably going to be OK when it came to WCQ. Turns out, neither Feilhaber nor Kljestan ever got a real chance with the first-team in 2017 (which was perplexing after Kljestan had done so well in the fall of 2016 when he finally got a chance, and had demonstrated real chemistry with Christian Pulisic). Nagbe became an integral part of the team, but despite his skill on the ball and ability to maintain possession, he isn't the playmaker in the attack that Feilhaber, Kljestan and Lee Nguyen were from 2015-2017.

    • Speaking of Benny Feilhaber, Sacha Kljestan and Lee Nguyen, I remain perplexed at how the US finally produced three legitimate #10 attacking playmakers, all of whom were extremely productive in MLS from the 2014-2017 timeframe during which these players were in their prime, and none of them ever got a meaningful run out with the national team under Jurgen Klinsmann or Bruce Arena. Given our struggles to find playmakers in the national team from 2012 - 2017 after the Landon Donovan era wound down and then ended, it's amazing to me that we had three true #10s in our player pool who were all extremely productive at the club level and in their prime, and none of them were given a meaningful opportunity to take up the mantle and fill that void in the team left by Donovan's retirement. It's baffling to me.

    • I remember thinking that MLS would struggle to achieve popularity in markets like Kansas City (back in the Wizards era) and Atlanta. Boy, was I wrong.
     
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  5. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Also speaking of Feilhaber and Nguyen, I thought not too long ago that both of them could only be effective if they were "the man" in the #10 role. Right now they're tearing up MLS while lining up together in a three-man midfield and sharing playmaking and defensive responsibilities.
     
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  6. Marko72

    Marko72 Member+

    Aug 30, 2005
    New York
    This is a fun post, and there's a lot to discuss all down the line, but I think we can sum up quite a bit by just taking the first name in this paragraph. You (and I, and a lot of people) weren't wrong when we identified Szetela as having "the stuff" (the technical, physical, and tactical tools) to succeed at a high level. What we didn't see where the intangibles, and that is where Szetela just wasn't cut out for it. Another player just like him, who could do with his feet and body what he did, and had the exact same vision for the game might well have succeeded at a much higher level than he did.

    A couple of those guys I don't think ever had "greatness" stamped on their games, but had "goodness" at least, and they more or less lived up to that. Rogers was always a one-trick pony that dribbled in a straight line with his head down, but he managed to resurrect his career with a switch to left back with the Galaxy, and I thought that was cool. Freddy... well, many pages have been written about Freddy. I still maintain that his utter lack of soccer IQ was his real undoing.

    And, of course, there's the unfortunate story of Charles Renken, a story that is repeated endlessly a million times over everywhere: seriously talented guy who gets injured a lot early on and never makes it, possibly from very bad luck, possibly because his body isn't hardy enough for the rigors of professional football.
     
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  7. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    Szetela filled out physically at a very early age and was a dominant presence as a youth. It was a sharp contrast to Michael Bradley, who played on the same teams but was scrawny.

    The late-maturing Bradley ended up with far better physical tools.
     
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  8. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    The name you didn't mention was our other winger, Sal Zizzo, whose talent was far less than Rogers'. He not only had a significant BigSoccer following, he also got some first-team minutes in the Bundesliga.

    Actually, Donovan was tremendous in the 2005 Hex. But you're obviously not the only person who was down on him after he was one of the players who shat the bed in the 2006 World Cup. By the time Arena was re-hired a decade later, everyone seemed to have amnesia about that whole fiasco.

    Have people forgotten about the Ralston Line?

    There were good reasons that Feilhaber and Nguyen washed out in Europe, and as for Sacha, he got over 50 caps. Internationally, he just didn't make the grade.
     
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  9. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    Amen. For me, the holes in Shea's game were too obvious too ignore, but I was all-in on Agudelo and a lot of other players whose talents went largely to waste ... Edson Buddle and Eddie Gaven come to mind.
     
  10. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    A big one for me:
    I thought that the emergence of the US national team would give rise to a tremendous generation of off-the-field leaders. The players in that era were benefiting from experiences that nobody in Bruce Arena's generation got, and the lessons they brought home would propel us forward. Instead, the Hackworth and Kenny Arena types have become even more entrenched, Tab Ramos put politics above soccer, and we're struggling to find any decent US-produced coaching candidates at all.
     
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  11. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    Another big one:
    I thought our Hispanic player pool would skyrocket. With the changing US demographics, it seemed obvious that this would happen.

    Instead, we've moved in the opposite direction, making the sport more and more economically exclusive and keeping out most of the lower-income immigrants.
     
  12. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    Yeah, Bruce was the obvious choice. What would be valuable, however, is for people to admit that changing coaches was never going to fix the basic problem: we had a lousy rising generation of players.

    Lots of coaches have worked with these players (born approx 1988-1994) ... Klinsmann and Arena at the senior level, Porter and Herzog at the U23s, Rongen and Ramos at the U20s, and Hackworth, Cabrera, and Williams at the U17s. Their teams all sucked.

    Instead of slapping on a new coach as a band-aid, what we need is a domestic system that fosters player development.
     
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  13. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sure but we couldn't fix that in time to qualify for the world cup which was the immediate priority. Plus while I agree this was a poor player pool it still should have been good enough to qualify for the playoffs and really should have gotten 3rd place.

    Personally can't wait until "American Fiasco 2: The Great Dumpster fire" comes out and Dempsey just unloads on everyone!
     
  14. olephill2

    olephill2 Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Club:
    Watford FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, Zizzo spent some time on the books at Hannover 96 after he left UCLA, but I thought Rogers had a better U-20 tournament in 2007 personally, and Rogers showed more promise in his early career. Granted they were at different levels, but remember that Rogers was an MLS Best XI player in 2008 as a winger.


    You're right - that was my mistake. Donovan had a down year in 2006 with the national team (0 goals in 11 matches), but he was good in 2005 during the Hex and he also scored 3 goals at the Gold Cup that year. He had 6 goals and 6 assists in total in 15 matches in 2005.

    I see your point with the comparison to Steve Ralston, but MLS is a much better league now than it was in the early to mid 2000s when Steve Ralston was playing, and Feilhaber, Kljestan and Nguyen were among the best playmakers in the league from 2015-2017 (+ 2014 for Nguyen). Also, Benny Feilhaber ACTUALLY delivered for the USMNT when given the chance - he was a very useful player in the Bob Bradley era and acquitted himself well at the 2010 World Cup. Kljestan was pretty average with the USMNT from 2008 - 2013 when primarily played as a two-way #8. He found his calling later in his career at the club level as a #10 in a more attacking/playmaking role, and unfortunately, save for a few impressive matches under Klinsmann in the fall of 2016, never got a real shot there. It should go without saying that Lee Nguyen never got a legit shot with the national team.
     
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  15. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    True as that is, the immediate priority for the past year should've been longer-term fixes.
     
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  16. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    I agree with you, was just pointing out that Zizzo was another 2007 U20 that some were making big projections about.

    MLS may have improved, but in global terms, it's still a very small pond. During the years you cited, it went a pitiful 1-10 against Liga Mx in CCL knockout series ... and Liga Mx isn't exactly known for having many World Cup standouts.

    Feilhaber did play well as a sub in the 2010 World Cup, but let's not forget that Clark, Edu, and Torres were all selected to start ahead of him. Feilhaber also didn't start at the 2008 Olympics, not even in the game when Bradley and Adu were both suspended.

    Maybe Bradley, Nowak, Klinsmann, and Arena were all conspiring against him?
     
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  17. olephill2

    olephill2 Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Club:
    Watford FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Maybe, but I respectfully disagree. Feilhaber was in poor form throughout 2008 - nobody would deny that. But he charged back to the national team the following year and I don't think anyone can doubt that he was a true difference maker on the team in 2009 and 2010 (think about the goal he created vs. Spain in the 2009 Confederations Cup semifinal and how much better we were in the 2nd half of games at the 2010 World Cup when Feilhaber was subbed in compared to the first half). The Clark and Edu comparisons aren't relevant to me because they were different types of midfielders than Feilhaber - much more defensive. Feilhaber was most effectively deployed by Bob Bradley in 2009-2010 as a pinched in wide midfielder in a 4-2-2-2, and he was most often used as a 2nd half spark off the bench.

    I personally never rated Jose Torres that much, so I can't tell you why Bradley decided to start him against Slovenia in the 2010 World Cup.
     
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  18. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    ... but it isn't as if this happened often. During the 2009 Hex, Feilhaber only started one meaningful game, and that was in central midfield alongside Michael Bradley.

    During this period of MB's career, he wasn't a good distributor (he improved a lot in Verona), so the "empty bucket" where he paired with Clark or Edu was extremely weak in possession (this had been obvious before the 2010 Ghana game). Even though Feilhaber was a different type of midfielder, that type was arguably preferable.
     
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  19. Caulfield

    Caulfield Member

    May 31, 2004
    Club:
    Atlanta
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, mine would be that from the years 2002-2014, I felt we had the ability to beat anyone, anytime, and many times would. Now.....we couldn’t beat Brazil(a team we beat in the 98 GC and almost beat in the 2010 Confederations Cup Final) or Spain(beat in the same 2010 tournament) if our life depended on it. I’ve lost all confidence in the team beyond mid level type opponents.
     
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  20. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I thought his career at Anderlecht was respectable.

    Co-signed. This is a really, really good point, and I think this failure to advance as a 'soccer nation' at the top continues to stymie our maturation at the youth level.
     
  21. ttrevett

    ttrevett Member+

    Apr 2, 2002
    Atlanta, GA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's a bit optimistic in my humble opinion.
     
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  22. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    Kljestan didn't get a lot of attention while it was happening, but you make a good point. His first two seasons at Anderlecht, they reached the knockout rounds of the Europa League; his last three seasons, they reached the Champions League group stage. And Kljestan played a big role in central midfield. They obviously weren't on a par with the big clubs, but they did earn ties against PSG (Zlatan), Arsenal, and Dortmund.
     
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  23. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Also count me as surprised that we didn't get more coaches out of the USMNT player pool that was active in the mid-to-late '00s. Not only were the players getting better experience, they were noted for being on-field leaders wherever they were. Between about 2004 and 2010, the USMNT almost always had 8 or more players on the field who were club captains or vice-captains, which is highly unusual for a national team. It wasn't just MLS captains, a surprisingly large number of Americans playing in Europe wore the armband for their clubs.

    Somehow, that whole generation of USMNT players has produced exactly one head coach at any professional level, anywhere in the world: Ben Olsen.
     
  24. TheHoustonHoyaFan

    Oct 14, 2011
    Houston
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Unfortunately it turned out that:
    1) Arena had very little knowledge of the player pool outside of a few players that might have either played for LA, or played well against LA.

    2) Arena's WCQ CONCACAF experience was woefully out of date as he was surprised by how organized and competitive even Martinique was during the Gold Cup.

    3) Due to 1) and 2) we never got to see just how poor his "knowledge" was in 3).
     
  25. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    Two fullbacks: Sanneh & Borstein. Never expected them to be as good as they were in World Cups.

    One World Cup: I was certain we'd make Russia until the last seconds. I expected the tie, it seemed so unfair to be completely out due to a phantom goal.

    100 players: From Wynalda to Josh Perez, our flops in Europe who may have done better had they got just a little more of a chance.
     

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