I think ELO is the best ranking out there when it comes to translating different results into something we can all quickly look at to form some impressions about how teams have been doing in terms of their results. I would agree, however, that how a team fares in a tournament is not merely the product of its past results. Other factors play a role, some of which can't be quantified (including luck), but also other factors which can be quantified although perhaps no so objectively (such as talent and pedigree). There is a ranking out there called SPI which tries to look into all these factors. It explicitly mentions that it doesn't rank teams based on their past results alone, but gives weight to pedigree and talent as well. The methodology used by SPI is explained here. Whatever its merits in theory, however, in practice SPI didn't do a good job predicting outcomes in World Cup 2010. But if you like to see their rankings, you can see them here. I don't agree with many of their rankings, but among the AFC teams, they have Japan ranked #35, South Korea #37, Iran #38, and Australia #46.