It seems either Switzerland will be seeded or they'll fail to qualify. That might also have to be posted in the " 211 To 1: World Cup 2018 Elimination Timeline [R]" thread since if that is true it means Bolivia will get uneliminated.
All bets are off now that James may miss the next few games due to injury. Not feeling good about a seed right about now.
FIFA set to review its WC ranking system after 2018 WC qualifiers have finished in order to set a new criteria for chosing seeded teams for next WC. Apparently, friendlies matches will not count any more, as at FIFA they've come aware that some teams avoid playing them on purpose, in order to get their ranking position increased, while some other teams get their ranking position highly negatively affected by playing too many of them. If it does happen, we will have to wait to see the "new criteria", as current ranking positions may not necessarily mean that the best 7 ranked, qualified teams to the WC, will effectively get seeded. Very big change compared to what it was for the 2 past WC's (2010 and 2014). http://www.espnfc.com/fifa-world-cu...king-system-following-world-cup-qualification
Expected Sep. 2017 Fifa Ranking 1. Germany 1606 2. Brazil 1590 3. Portugal 1386 4. Argentina 1325 5. Belgium 1265 6. Poland 1250 7. Switzerland 1210 8. France 1208 9. Chile 1195 10. Colombia 1191 11. Spain 1184 12. Peru 1103 13. Wales 1089 14. Mexico 1085 15. England 1056 16. Uruguay 1044 17. Italy 1035 18. Croatia 977 19. Slovakia 967 20. N.Ireland 945
Unless FIFA alters the procedure ... the October 2017 ranking will determine the top seeds (out on Oct.19) ... after two more games this is how it could look: 1 Brazil 1689 (w-w) 2 Germany 1631 (w-w) 3 Argentina 1539 (w-w) 4 Portugal 1446 (w-w) 5 Belgium 1333 (w-w) 6 Poland 1324 (w-w) 7 Wales 1250 (w-w) 8 France 1226 (w-w) 9 Spain 1218 (w-w) 10 Colombia 1205 (w-d) 11 Chile 1174 (w-l) 12 Switzerland 1134 (w-l) 13 England 1115 (w-w) 14 Italy 1114 (w-w) 15 Peru 1111 (l-d) 16 Mexico 1092 (w-w) 17 Uruguay 1034 (d-w) 18 Turkey 1015 (w-w) 19 Denmark 999 (d-w) 20 Croatia 986 (w-d) If the likes of France, Spain, Italy, etc. don't claim top seed status the European pot will be quite strong. Argentina (81.1% to qualify for WC2018) and Portugal (87.5%) should get in and grab a top seed ... Wales (33.9%) might not ... France and/or Spain could grab the final top seed(s). With Brazil and Argentina as the only non-Uefa top seeds there are 8 Uefa teams left = a perfect fit for the European pot ... Conmebol/OFC + CAF teams in one pot ... and AFC + Concacaf teams in another pot ... you can look forward to a GoD with Germany, Spain, Uruguay and the US. Seeding the host + these 7 teams would be better:
If FIFA decides to use a system for seeding teams such as the one used for the 2006 WC, where they took in consideration the 2 past WC performances, many of the top ranked teams would have no chance in getting seeded, as some of those top ranked teams , missed one of both last 2 WC's (2010 and 2014). Some of these teams, among the 20 top ranked teams (considering next September rankings, as the one for October presented by @Blondo , is just a product of his dreams as it asumes lots of results of matches that haven't happened yet), would be : - Belgium (missed 2010) - Poland (missed both 2010 and 2014) - Colombia (missed 2010) - Peru (missed both 2010 and 2014) - Wales (missed both 2010 and 2014) - Slovakia (missed 2014) - Northen Ireland (missed both 2010 and 2014)
Either that or I didn't bother at all and it's c/p ... with elo-predicted results (in parentheses: w-win d-draw l-loss) for each team's two scheduled matches until the October ranking Spoiler (Move your mouse to the spoiler area to reveal the content) Show Spoiler Hide Spoiler It's c/p with elo-predicted results ... TBH, friendo from knock-off Texas, my dreams are a lot more dirty. xoxo
There's been an update: the probability gods smile on Peru (and laugh at Chile) ... Peru to replace Chile in the OFC/Conmebol play-offs ... Peru should still beat New Zealand though ... a reminder is in order here: Uruguay were knocked out by an OFC side in the play-offs a few WCs ago ... how embarrassing ... yet it's doubtful that Peru will suffer the same fate. Also, France to grab the final top seed ... but sadly Spain fall short. @guri ... no need to get upset ... Brazil at 7 to 1 odds is very cruel though ... 7-1 ... LMAO that's just taking the piss. Also, Uruguay at 50 to 1 ... more ridicule or are Uruguay just trash? Find out the right answer here (Move your mouse to reveal the content) Find out the right answer here (open) Find out the right answer here (close) Uruguay, LMAO, of course they're trash ... basically a throwaway bet
The Times taking credit ... but yea Edgar has been doing it for years (and Dutch Ed too). Revealed, ha! @FootballRanks has been doing this for years...— Chelsea Youth (@chelseayouth) September 4, 2017
No way on earth does Italy deserve to be seeded. Going out in the group stages of the past 2 world cups. No sentiments allowed.
FIFA rankings are crap anyways. The crapness SHOULD be mitigated by adding past WC performance into the equation. None of those teams besides Belgium and Colombia should be anywhere near a seed.
Update on 2018 seeds here: http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/09/2018-world-cup-simulations-8-september.html TOP 7 Brazil 100% Germany 99,99% Portugal 93,13% (if they qualify they are seeded) Argentina 82,94% (if they qualify they are seeded) Poland 75,44% Belgium 69,88% France 39,11% ---- CONTENDERS: Spain 37,56% Colombia 31,71% Peru 31,56% Wales 16,83% Switzerland 13,16% Chile 8,67% I'm saying it right now: everyone will be praying to be in the group with Russia, Poland or Belgium.
World Cup 2006 was the last one Uruguay didn't qualify for, and they had to play Australia who left OFC. ELO had Uruguay 52 points higher than Australia before those two games, and the ELO probability for a 52 point advantage is .574.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(OFC) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CONMEBOL–OFC_play-off) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup#Seeds Hadn't quite left OFC ... seeing it were Conmelol/OFC play-offs could as well go with that ... let's say OFC and AFC > Conmelol. The way fangirls in here bang on about Conmelol you'd expect a much higher calibre ... still, it's doubtful that Peru will suffer the same fate ... actually I wouldn't mind seeing how Peru fare in Russia.
They hadn't left OFC then, but wasn't Australia then better than New Zealand is now? ELO has Australia before their first game against Uruguay in 2005 as 222 points better than New Zealand is now. To show how big a gap that is, there's a 221 point gap from Paraguay in 32nd (the last team in a hypothetical World Cup with the top ELO teams) to Mali in 78th. Losing to an OFC team now would be more embarrassing.
Hence "it's doubtful that Peru will suffer the same fate ... actually I wouldn't mind seeing how Peru fare in Russia"
but to be fair Croatia has been garbage in every WC they have participated bar the one in 1998 were they were fantastic 1998 - 3rd (amazing and pushed France to the edge) - collected 5 wins in 7 matches In their other 3 tournaments they have been eliminated in the group stages and managed only 2 wins in 9 games vs Italy (02) and Cameroon (14). Being beaten by such non-European powerhouses as Ecuador (02), Mexico (02 and 14) . They also collected draws against the powers of Japan (06) and Australia (06) Still I suppose they have been better than the utter waste of space that Serbia has been in their last 2 world cups (6 games...5 defeats) 1998 - R16 - 2 wins vs USA and Iran - eliminated by the Dutch in R16 2006 - Officially the worst team at this WC. Lost all 3 matches vs Arg, Ned, Ivory Coast 2010 - Eliminated at the group stage - lost to Australia and Ghana...beat Germany
the team that eliminated Uruguay and went to the WC was the golden generation os Australian Football with the likes of Viduka, Kewell, Cahill, Schwarzer, Neill, etc they were a much much much better team than what NZ is now. Also much much better than what Australia is currently
Still dwelling on the past? Still upset? Try an on-topic post from time to time ... although that reminds me ... the last time any Conmelol team not named Brazil or Argentina eliminated a Uefa team in the KO stages was about half a century ago ... when Uruguay knocked out the Soviet Union ... congrats ... half a century is a long loooong time though ... Brazil and Argentina as the only non-Uefa top seeds for Russia2018, that's plenty ... here you go, back on topic, with ease.
What's wrong with being knocked out by Australia, you dont know that they had a pretty decent team back then, even they kick european second rate Croatia out too early or its anybody outside europe can kick Croatia out at the World Cup group stages. I fail to see how embarrassing when Uruguay losing the penalty shootout to Australia in 2005, especially after watching the Australia-Italy game in the following year as the Aussies stepped up to the challenge the eventual winners. You know what's really embarrassing, when Belgium lost to Saudi Arabia, now that's embarrassing, "that was the topper, that was the ever-loving lulu of all times" Not sure even which is more embarrassing, european team losing to asian team or in the way they lost the game. Saudi Arabia on a lesser level, and we all know that they are a strong team in asia but a full of crap one at the world stage, the best they can do at the World Cup is grabbing the points from the africans with the help of penalties, they just sit back defend and try to counter attack approach, they can't play at this level. But against Belgium in 1994 which is the only time when we saw the Saudis humiliating a side at the world stage, even their earlier victory against Morocco defending all day long, they were completely outplayed by the Moroccans the whole 90 mins, while against Belgium is another story Owairan was scoring for fun leaving crappy defenders on their backsides not to mention it was at slow speed dribbling and he became unbalanced at latter stage, the second half in which they still could have scored more that you should thank for Preud'homme's heroic, Belgium were falling apart in that game tragically. Your team that has Nilis, Weber, Wilmots, Degryse, Philippe Albert and Van der Elst that all played of the three big clubs in a respectable Belgian league early 90s and showing the world the difficulties to handle a bunch of the amateurs of saudi players, you bring shame to whole europe, another european team can't let this happen, it's only Belgium who embarrass themselves and europe at the World Cup. Wake up! American teams were far superior than the European teams in the last two World Cups, you have something to prove otherwise or it's worthless empty talk.
By that time, many Australian players were playing professionally in the top league in Europe and they get also a experienced coach in Guus Hiddink.