I have speculated for a while, that like any maturing industry, football should see a consolidation where 3-4 major brands come to dominate the sport utterly. Utd 8-2 Arsenal City 5-1 Spurs Barca 5-0 Villareal ..... Have we arrived? Looking at financials, there are a few teams looking to step on towards the 500m turnover mark - or that have equivalent financing. But to me, only a small number of teams can be supported at that level, unless UEFA disbands and the clubs themselves take control of the market directly..... Thoughts?
I am not sure that three results within a week can make or break a trend. Freaky results do happen. Unless they continue to be repeated with any sort of consistency we can not make any sense of them. Remember last year's PSV - Feyenoord 10:0 drubbing? It happens.
Just over ten years ago, Manchester City were crap, with a crap history, in a crap stadium, with no money, in the third division of English football and no future to look forward too. All of a sudden, they've become a brand? That's why there shouldn't be any "Euro-consolidation of Mega clubs". Anything can happen. Especially in English football.
Anything can happen as in "anytime an oil billionaire with a football fetish can start pumping hundreds of millions into a mediocre club to make it a brand", yes. I'd say the big European football clubs have already consolidated in the last decade. Real-Barca-ManU-Chelsea-Liverpool-Arsenal-Inter-Milan-Juventus-Bayern. Whoever is in a slump might be at or below the level of the best of the rest at any given time, but that's pretty much the clubs that were financially and squadwise in a position to play for the CL title since Portos win 2004 - the only change is coming with ManCity with a billionaires interference. Though I agree that we currently see further concentration - financially, the Italians and Liverpool are dropping into a 2nd tier, while the rest of the English and Bayern are more or less desperately trying to keep up with the Spanish giants. UEFAs fair play will further contribute to this, forcing Inter, Milan and Chelsea (and ManCity) to live mostly without owners contribution. And on the pitch, we can see the concentration of talent at Barcelona and Madrid as well.
Without something 'else' (like a super league) I don't see how Liverpool or Chelsea or Arsenal intend to kick on much further (for differing reasons). And Bayern's growth is limited because of the different ambitions. For me we clearly already have a big 3 (Real, Barca, Utd) to which City are astro turfing a made for TV brand. Like any market - this will be self reinforcing. Unless a team like Liverpool can hope to close a 100m+ revenue gap - then they will necessarily fall further and further behind.
City is nowhere near ManU, Real and Barcelona revenuewise. Chelsea is much closer, and even Chelsea can't compete for talent anymore as soon as Abramovic tightens his purse. Btw, I don't really see how Bayerns growth "is limited because of the different ambitions". What different ambitions? If they are limited, it's mostly by the difficult tv market in Germany. Also, with the ownership and debt situation, I'm not quite certain if ManU is in a better situation to challenge the Spanish giants than Bayern is.
City have by far the fastest growing revenue, plus splurges Chelsea, I can't see how they are going to grow that business much more - so whether they stick with the premier brands depends on how much Roman spunks Bayern are not as aggressively run as Utd
Yes, they do. So did Chelsea after Abramovic took over. But they never got to a point where they could leave Abramovics support away and still challenge Chelsea. I don't see how ManCity should be different, especially considering that they will be restricted by financial fair play pretty much from now on.
Exactly, like Manchester City...... like Chelsea...... That's why there should be no Euro-consolidation of so called "mega clubs".
Or the new billionaire toys PSG and Malaga... or even RB Leipzig when they finally enter the Bundesliga a couple of years down the line... Oh you silly spoiled boys, get back on your boats!
What? Bayern has the biggest commercial income in europe by quite a large margin. The issue for them is the german TV market, if they would earn the same as ManUtd then they would be ahead of them in revenue. Besides that you have to consider that they have a lot less debts and actually own their stadium as well as 80% of their shares while ManUtd is already a sold club. So overall Bayern is financially at least a clear #4 in Europe and the rest depends on how the TV market will be handled in Spain and how much growth potential is left in Germany and it's no unreasonable to say that the BL could do a lot better there in future. The question is wether or not clubs Chelsea and ManCity can stay at the top with the FFP regulations else it's ManUtd, Arsenal, Bayern and so on who will take advantage of it.
Yes but Bayern is tapped out in all its major revenue sources. So unless they aggressively explore international growth - they will not grow like Utd. While I agree Bayern is in a great financial position and dominates the German market commercially - I see little sign of them attempting to become a major international brand in the same way as Utd or Barca.
Bayern is of international brand, maybe not in North America but that's because they don't believe it benefits them (unfortunately). Point is they already make top 3 or top 4 annually in terms of revenue already with very poor commercial TV revenue from the league.
Bayern enjoys great domestic commercial relationships. But they are pretty far from an international brand - i hate to break it to you
There have always been clubs going up or down the ladder.. When the Bundesliga started in the 60´s Bayern München was not invited because TSV 1860 was "THE" club in the area still..It changed rather quickly of course and the 70´s Bayern München was dominating German football. Pre 1992 Manchester United where nothing special and Liverpool was ruling England absolutely having taken over from Leeds that dominated in the 70´s etc etc.
We already have a consolidated club elite. It's just that some billionaire sugardaddies/investors choose to spend oodles of cash on breaking into it. We're not seeing much in the way of clubs rising to mega-club status simply on their organically earned revenue. It'd be cool if say Borussia Dortmund could rise on its own merits. Their young talent, on-pitch product and resulting revenue growth. The football idealist in me wants that to happen. That's also why the football-idealist in me strongly roots for the Bundesliga in European competitions. As far as I'm concerned, Bundesliga clubs are the good guys (okay, minus Wolfsburg). They grow organically based on their revenue and for the most part are membership-controlled. It is heartening that despite not being a billionaires' playground, the Bundesliga's a rising force in football. Okay, it DOES prevent much in the way of City/Malaga/Napoli type cash-injections and at least in the short run presents a competitive disadvantage. But in the long run, I think it makes for a healthy domestic game. I'd sure not swap the Bundesliga for any other league out there, which boasts more in the way of superstars and megaclubs.
Hoffenheim, Bayer Leverkusen, Wolfsburg..are they not products of industrial conglomerats and billionaires?
Leverkusen? No. Wolfsburg: not until they reached the 1st BL, until then VW didn't care thaaat much. Hoffenheim, and also RB Leipzig, I'd give to you.
Of those, only Wolfsburg is nowadays is handed a big cheque for transfer splurges. Leverkusen is financially independent, if I'm not mistaken. And they're a product of the early 20th century industrial age, much like say Schalke. As for Hoffenheim, the club is also moving towards being financially independent from their benefactor. Their strategy is to become another club built round fostering young talent. Like Freiburg or Mainz. Hopp never meant to make them a bottomless pit. So, no, I think Wolfsburg is quite unique in Germany. Perhaps RB Leipzig will one day play a similar role, but as yet they're in the 4th tier.
i am simply basing it on turnover. Inter have remained at the top recently via huge cash injections - see Swiss Rambles excellent analysis. To support a wage bill in the order of 150m-200m is going to require huge turnover.
If you build it, they will come... By the way, Juve's opening ceremony looked awsome... [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbPEoJYnWnY&feature=player_embedded"]House Warming in Torino[/ame] Let's hope they have full house more than it is currently the case in Seria A!