Ernesto Goes to Work: The 2018-19 Season Thread [R]

FDJ had a pretty good match last night. Just pinging the ball around like it was a practice session.

De Ligt makes his share of blunders IMO. But he's young...

 

Thing is, every team has deadwood. We just might notice Barca's more because we see them play more. But I mean, if Suarez qualifies as 'deadwood' in your dictionary, what do you call real donkeys like Lukaku, Morata, Benzema, Mandzukic, Cavani, Paco, Salah?

 

They're all not as bad as Suarez has been this season.

That's my predicted reply, anyway.

 

Mo Salah ain’t no donkey, even Benzema has quality.

Suarez will be fine until the end of the season ( and next IF we manage to get Jovic ).

 

Yet he can't outscore a donkey (Suarez).

 

You could argue that it’s easier to score for Barca in la Liga with Messi assisting than from the right wing position of Liverpool, in the EPL

PS I’ve never referred to Suarez as a donkey .. he is however a pale shadow of the player I fell in love with at Liverpool though

 

You could, but its not a very good argument. Salah gets chance-after-chance to score.

What it boils down to is that goals tend to come in bunches and its easier to be critical of someone who you watch every game versus ones you don't see as regularly, because you notice the dry-spells more.
That's why for guys who are essentially paid to score it is always good to keep in mind how much they're actually scoring overall. In Suarez' case, his goal per game ratio is still above both Salah and Benzema this season. Plus he assists alot. That despite a really bad season in CL for Suarez and a better-than-usual season all around for Benzema.

 

I did not know that you can mix the home kit tshirt and the away kit shorts

 

Many clubs do it. There's no standard rule permitting it. It's just that Barca rarely, if ever, have done it. I'm guessing because of tradition. Off the top of my head I can't ever recall seeing the first team playing in Blaugrana stripes without the blue shorts.
(The 2005-06 season change to red shorts was quite a big deal then, akin to the horizontal stripes of 2014-15).

Watching that video, I can't say I care to see that combination again. Maybe once every ten years.

 

So Villarreal lost a 2 goal lead to Celta and lost 2-3 so now "hungry" for a win to avoid relegation, and La Ceramica is a traditionally tough venue, but we are Barca and top of the table and ought to rotate a bit before the big 1-2 of Atleti (at home, where a victory or even a draw pretty much assures us La Liga, especially if we still manage 3 points vs. Villarreal) and ManU (in Manchester for first leg, where we want to win or at least manage a draw with goals).

But we don't want to bring a crap squad to Villarreal and invite trouble, that is:

• don't rotate 5+ players all at once in place of "grand once" starters;
• do use all 3 subs, 2 of them sooner than later;
• do spare a couple starters the travel by not being in squad at all;
  
  Fortunately, we have a handful of players who are nearly grand once quality even when they are not always treated as such:
  
  
• Roberto/Semedo - either basically equals RB starter;
  
  
• Umtiti - lost his starter spot to injury layoff and Lenglet's good play, but getting back to full health and game shape, so time to rotate him with BOTH Pique and Lenglet (no reason we cannot play two left footed CBs at same time, save that they have almost never played together);
  
  
• Vidal - 4th mid, and Alena - 5th mid, both high quality, just don't sub all at once;
  
  
• Coutinho, even though we hate his recent struggles, can step in and start, especially if Messi rests (as some of his struggles with Barca are that he brings somewhat similar skills);
  
  
• Malcom, the one we really want to see, especially with Dembele still out injured for the moment, limited minutes but good showing in Derbi and often in other limited appearances.

So, all that said, we can do a good bit of rotation, beyond our RB "platoon" by starting Umtiti, Vidal, Coutinho, and Malcom. That still let's us start 6 of 10 grand once (plus either RB), so it is not a bad squad at all.

Then, who needs rest the most, Messi (groin/pelvis since December sounds terrible but obviously he's still plays at a great level and seems to have a better handle on staying healthy the last few years in part by limiting his defense efforts), Suarez (knee better but recent ankle tweak), Busi and Raki (both just play all the time and in Busi's case, Raki is his best sub), Alba (only Miranda as sub, unless we play Roberto there, or try one of Lenglet/Umtiti at LB (which helps Alba but not the resting of Pique and Lenglet, and may be a little late to play around with).

So my early thought is we leave Messi, Pique, and Busquets home. And leave some other starters on the bench. So maybe start like this:

MAtS
Roberto-Umtiti-Lenglet-Alba
Vidal-Rakitic-Arthur
Malcom-Suarez-Coutinho​

Bench is Cillessen (if healthy, otherwise Inaki) Alena (who we want to bring on), Miranda (same but need lead to do so), Murillo (or Todibo), Prince, Vermaelen, and Semedo (who we also want to bring on, moving Roberto to midfield or one of the RBs to LB, latter only if Miranda not in the squad).

Injured Dembele, & Rafinha. Rested and left at home Messi, Busquets, & Pique (though in all reality we likely bring 1 or 2 but hopefully they start on the bench).

Try to get off before full game played: Rakitic, Alba, Suarez. So if all that worked out we'd give full rest to 3 regular starters, and get some rest for 3 others in 2nd half.

 

Given that the Atletico match is just 3 days before the Man United one, is it beyond consideration to rest a few regulars for the Atleti match? I mean, we have a 10 point lead after all...

That said, the Villarreal match won't be easy so we could of course drop points there, which would make the Atleti match a bit more important.

 

Good point. Assuming my rest/rotation was right guess for Villarreal, we could then rest Roberto (start Semedo in RB platoon), Lenglet (Pique and Umtiti pair), Rakitic (so Busi back at DM and 2 of Arthur, Vidal, and Alena start), and Suarez (not convinced by Prince but play Messi, Coutinho, and Malcom) for some or all of Atleti.

The trick remains getting some rest for Alba, that's the toughest feat to pull off - perhaps better to not try till after this 3 game. Worth noting that Lucho only started him (and Busi and Roberto) in one game each of the 2 internationals, so he is fairly rested. The best solutions seem to be play him but with a true winger on the left (Malcom) so he can focus on D mostly but still mix in some crafty overlapping runs; play Miranda; play Roberto (or Semedo) as LB; play Umtiti (or Lenglet) as LB so alongside Lenglet (or Umtiti) - both on at once but not both as CBs. Could also be done with Verm.

If we think big picture, if we get 3 points against Villarreal and Atleti, at most Atleti gets within 7 points of us, with 7 matches to go. Still very much in driver's seat for Liga. But losing both matches (or draw and loss) both would not be good at all, as gap would then likely be just 4 (or 5) points.

 

Whelp, squad list is out and only Murillo and Todibo are staying in Barca of the available first teamers (since we have 4 other CBs). Doesn't mean we will start all regular starters but none are spared the travel so all hands will be available if whomever starts doesn't secure a lead against the 17th placed team.

Ernesto Valverde published his squad list for the clash against Villarreal and he isn’t taking any risks. The coach has maintained his idea of fighting for the title as a priority and has taken 19 players. Riqui Puig and Wague participated in the session but were not included, while B team stopper Inaki Pena goes on the trip because Jasper Cillessen is injured. Kevin Prince Boateng travels with Ousmane Dembele still out.

The squad list:

GKs: Ter Stegen, Iñaki Peña

DFs: Semedo, Sergi Roberto, Piqué, Lenglet, Vermaelen, Umtiti, Jordi Alba

MFs: Busquets, Rakitic, Arthur, Arturo Vidal, Aleñá

FWs: Messi, Luis Suárez, Coutinho, Malcom, Boateng

So I'm still hoping for more rotation than we usually see, but indications are we'll see less rotation than I suggested/hoped for about 3 posts above this one.

 

Valverde: "6 is our lucky number. Win six matches and La Liga is ours." pic.twitter.com/qT0JVMJbXL

— total Barça (@totalBarca) April 1, 2019

 

Yup, 6 wins (out of 9 matches) will do it. As will 18 points any other way (5 W, 3 Draws, 1 Loss), since the most Atletico can get is 27 points and we lead them by 10 points.

But while EV said that, I think, to emphasize that the 3 points against Villarreal are just as important as the 3 points against Atleti, the truth is somewhat different, as the Atleti match effectively gives us a way to add 6 points to our "magic number". As, if we beat Atleti our magic number goes down two ways, 3 points for the win (same as any other win) but also 3 points for our nearest rival losing. In that scenario (where we beat them) Atleti can only get 24 points in their last 9 matches, so we only need to gain 15 ourselves, or actually only 14 (vis-a-vis Atleti) as we'd also hold the tiebreaker since we drew at their place. If we drew with Atleti we'd only "gain" 1 of the 18 we need, but we'd also gain 2 more as they'd drop two and could only get 25 in their last 9 matches. But neither team would hold the tiebreaker.

People might point out that this "magic number" ignores Real Madrid, but actually it really doesn't as they are 12 points back and we already hold the tiebreaker against them. So even if they win all 27 on offer, we only need 15 points (5 wins, or 4 wins and 3 draws) to hold them off.

 

Slightly worrying quote.

Does this mean EV is going to field close to the best 11 in every LaLiga match until the title is clinched mathematically?

 

It can be read in a worrying fashion, and before we play Atleti I think that is the right way to read it, but as Celito said, once we hopefully beat Atleti at home after hopefully having also won at Villarreal, then we should really be free to rotate. If that happens we'd have at least 13 points on Atleti, at least 12 on Real, and the tiebreak against each, all with just 21 points remaining in play. No way that even a Liga first worry wart like EV thinks we can drop more than 12 out of 21.

So I think the intention is just a few subs in each of those next two Liga games, then full grand once at ManU, then rotate a bunch in Liga (if we get the Villarreal and Atleti wins) while emphasizing fitness/freshness for CL and CdR final, and also giving last chances for fringe players (who are spelling the grand once) to show that they have a first team role and what it might be in those last 7 Liga matches.

All that said, I think EV takes extreme pride not just in winning La Liga (about to be two straight times, how many other Barca or other Liga coaches can say that) but, moreoever, that his team have lost just 3 times in over 1.75 seasons. Hopefully though two wins in next two Liga matches will cure him to let players in as different circumstances as Miranda, Malcom, Vidal, Coutinho, and Umtiti all show what they can do before the season ends.

• Can Miranda earn his trust at LB,
• can Malcom do that at either wing,
• can Vidal be a viable DM or even a forward,
• can Coutinho shine best when Messi is rested in a free-er role,
• can Umtiti play together with Lenglet, either both at CB or one at LB, etc.

 

Game against Atletico is basically 7 pointer. If Barca wins, Atletico needs to overcome 12 points difference. If Barca loses, Atletico needs to overcome 5 point difference. Only possible in Liga, and Serie Z.

 

Yeah, although LPB could be in 2nd.

Also a 0-0 or 1-1 would be almost as good as a win since it would give Barca a 9 point lead essentially.

 

BARCELONA, Spain -- There's a joke among local residents in Castelldefels, a town squashed between the sea and the mountains outside of Barcelona, that Philippe Coutinho's home is a jinx.

Cesc Fabregas bought it months before being sold to Chelsea. Thomas Vermaelen's stay there coincided with lengthy spells on the sideline with injuries. Andre Gomes then moved in after joining Barcelona from Valencia for nearly €40 million but the Portuguese midfielder never found his feet at Camp Nou, admitting that he struggled to deal with the criticism his performances garnered from supporters.
Coutinho was the €160m man destined to lift the curse. Luis Suarez, his former teammate at Liverpool, helped him find the house.

 

Soooo just 5 wins and two more draws now

 

Good news on the injury front from MARCA, Dembele joined the group for the first time, just for rondos, before continuing with individual work. Won't play vs. Atleti, but hopes to make the squad against ManU for first leg on April 10th.

Ernesto Valverde is not going to risk Dembele in Saturday's clash with Atletico Madrid. The coach did so in the Champions League match at home to Lyon, which caused the 21-year-old to suffer a relapse of his injury to the femoral bicep muscle in his right leg, a decision Valverde took full responsibility for.

The plan, for both Valverde and Dembele, is for the winger to be in a good enough condition to play against Manchester United, though it will depend on his progress over the next week.

----------------Meanwhile with Real's loss they are well and truly out of the race for Liga despite Barca only getting a draw, we gained points on them in Jornada 30. We are now 13 points ahead of them and hold the tiebreak as well. So even if they won all 8 of their final Liga games (err final games period since no more CL and no more CdR) to take 24 points (which won't happen), we'd just need 11 points in that same 8 game period to finish above them.

 

🆕 Likely to with... Malcom, @Phil_Coutinho and @arthurhromelo 🇧🇷

We assure you that in less than 15 seconds you will be crying with laughter 😂

Have a nice weekend!!! 💙❤ pic.twitter.com/hozYYwm4bJ

— FC Barcelona (@FCBarcelona) April 5, 2019