EPL 2012-2013 season statistical analysis

Discussion in 'Premier League: News and Analysis' started by lemons, May 20, 2013.

  1. lemons

    lemons Member

    United States
    Nov 20, 2004
    Club:
    Atlanta United FC
    Hey all,

    I was bored this afternoon, so I did a quick little data collection on the 2012-13 EPL season to see how certain factors affect the amount of points a team will collect in a season. The analysis is done using a standard OLS regression. The dependent variable is total points. Independent variables are:
    • Total spent on preseason transfers (in millions of pounds)
    • Net transfer expenditures (in millions of pounds)
    • Club rank in player wages (2011-2012 data)
    • Whether the club participated in a European tournament this year
    • Whether they were recently promoted (last 3 years)
    • Goals scored
    • Goal differential
    • Having a British manager
    • Having a new manager appointed in the preseason
    Here is the table of results:
    [​IMG]
    As you can see, the only variable that reaches statistical significance is the goal differential (p > .01). However, I think that this is still an interesting output. At the very least, it is suggestive of the marginal effect these variables have. For instance, this table predicts that the effect of having a British manager on a club's points haul is worth 14.8 million pounds in additional transfer expenditures (1.885/.12783).

    I would have liked to have collected more years of data, but I was a bit strapped for time this afternoon. Anyway, I figured I'd share with you Premier League (and non-Premier League, perhaps) fans. Enjoy!

    P.S. I also posted this in the stats forum, but I figured more eyeballs would see it here.
     

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