Eliminatorias a RUSIA 2018

Discussion in 'CONMEBOL' started by Gerlestat, Oct 5, 2015.

  1. SiempreCrema

    SiempreCrema Member+

    Feb 4, 2015
    Club:
    Universitario de Deportes
    Country:
    Peru
    Claro, no siempre estaremos de acuerdo con todo pero eso no significa que hay que tener que atacar a uno o el otro.
     
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  2. SiempreCrema

    SiempreCrema Member+

    Feb 4, 2015
    Club:
    Universitario de Deportes
    Country:
    Peru
    I just now realized something.


    Argentina can possibly stay out of the World Cup if they don't beat Chile next game.


    Argentina's next games


    Argentina - Chile

    Bolivia - Argentina

    Uruguay - Argentina

    Argentina - Venezuela

    Argentina - Peru

    Ecuador - Argentina



    If Argentina don't beat Chile the pressure is seriously on. If we keep on this current run that we're on, then Argentina vs Peru will be the game who determines 5th place. I can't see Argentina winning in La Paz or Montevideo.



    Realistically, I expect to lose in Argentina when the time comes but Argentina is such a mess that it's not impossible.



    I've been defending Argentina saying they will qualify even if they've been dodgy but those fixtures do not help their case. Very tough games ahead.
     
  3. pipinogol

    pipinogol Member

    May 20, 2016
    Club:
    Cary RailHawks U23
    ^jeez, you really have faith in your team, don't you?

    BTW Vidal, Diaz, Sánchez and Medel potentially out of the Argentina game (the former two for sure).
     
  4. SiempreCrema

    SiempreCrema Member+

    Feb 4, 2015
    Club:
    Universitario de Deportes
    Country:
    Peru
    Sorry I forgot to mention.

    Most Peruvians still have faith they can make the world cup. I have faith but no expectations. I'm not preparing for most likely inevitable disappointment again. I just think that if Argentina fail to beat Chile they will be in trouble.
     
  5. SiempreCrema

    SiempreCrema Member+

    Feb 4, 2015
    Club:
    Universitario de Deportes
    Country:
    Peru
    Just realized Brazil have Paraguay. I think they should win but in recent times Paraguay has been Brazil's kryptonite.
     
  6. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    Chile has injury trouble. Alexis Sánchez and Gary Medel got hurt during this past weekend's matches in Europe, but there's a chance both will recover in time. If they're both healthy, a Chilean draw is realistic. If one or both are missing, despite all that's been happening, I would view an Argentine victory as a more realistic result.

    The Bolivia match is going to be tough, as it is tough for every other CONMEBOL national team except Ecuador. But Argentina has actually won in La Paz in previous WCQ, so it wouldn't be farfetched.

    What I think is most realistic is that Argentina wins at home vs. Chile and then loses or draws at Bolivia. If they therefore go into August with 22 or 23 points, they'll still be in contention.

    Having said all this, ninguém ganha antes de jogar, as we say in Brasil. It'll be an interesting final run in this WCQ for sure. I predict Brasil will finish in 1st place and Argentina will be in Russia 2018.
     
  7. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    We came from behind to save 1 point on their ground, and on our ground, Paraguay has lost every time since the current everyone vs. everyone format was adopted.
     
  8. SiempreCrema

    SiempreCrema Member+

    Feb 4, 2015
    Club:
    Universitario de Deportes
    Country:
    Peru
    I'm not saying I think Paraguay will win that game, but it is definitely the opponent that Brazil most struggles against. If I remember correctly since the start of the century, Brazil has lost more times to Paraguay than vice versa?
     
  9. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    No. Since 2000, Brazil has 4 wins vs. Paraguay's 4 wins - however one of Paraguay's wins was a friendly. Every other match was either WCQ or Copa America.

    Paraguay has definitely been a thorn on our side, but "kryptonite?" It's not as if we can't defeat or haven't defeated them. Besides, you first said "recent times," and then you went back to the start of the 21st Century.
     
  10. SiempreCrema

    SiempreCrema Member+

    Feb 4, 2015
    Club:
    Universitario de Deportes
    Country:
    Peru
    That's the closest to Brazil will get to a kryptonite, but I guess the term "thorn" is a bit better.

    You can't deny that Paraguay's recent record against Brazil is superb compared to the other South American sides that isn't Argentina.
     
  11. kromekote

    kromekote Member+

    May 22, 2012
    Club:
    America de Cali

    This is a great test for Brazil. Mainly in part because Gabriel Jesus has been the X factor. His confidence along with great finishing, agility/skill has been a nightmare to hold off. It allowed Neymar to no longer be the center of every attack. Now it will show if Neymar can shoulder the responsibility differently than when it was given to him under Dunga. Just how Tite can replace GJ and see if he will play an off form Coutinho remains to be seen. Uruguay at home has been a machine and play every game with such high intensity.

    If they lose against Uruguay, we will see which Paraguay shows up ,but I see both matches as highly physical and contested games for Brazil.
     
  12. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    Are we talking "recent" as in the past 3-5 years or are we going back to 2000, as per your mention of the beginning of the 21st Century? o_O

    But in any case, Paraguay has indeed been a thorn. And it's done a lot better than other teams. A quick search shows this:

    Brazil vs. Paraguay, 1/1/2000-3/20/2017

    • 13 matches
    • 4 wins and 4 losses for each team
    • 5 draws
    • Both are undefeated against each other when playing on home ground, except for Paraguay's 0-1 win in 2002 right after the World Cup in what was a festive friendly.
    • Brazil 18 goals scored; Paraguay 15 goals scored
    Brazil vs. Uruguay, 1/1/2000-3/20/2017
    • 10 matches:
    • 3 wins for Brazil
    • 1 win for Uruguay
    • 6 draws
    • Brazil did not defeat Uruguay in regulation until 2007
    • Uruguay gave Brazil fits in 2003's WCQ held in Brazil. Brazil did defeat Uruguay 4-0 in Montevideo and 2-1 in a rare Confederations Cup matchup.
    • Brazil 18 goals scored; Uruguay 13 goals scored.
    Thus, Paraguay and Uruguay have similar performances overall. But how did Brazil do vs. Argentina, the one side you specifically named?

    Brazil vs. Argentina, 1/1/2000-3/20/2017

    • 19 matches
    • 10 wins for Brazil
    • 5 wins for Argentina
    • 4 draws
    • Brazil defeated Argentina once in Argentina (2009, WCQ); Argentina has never defeated Brazil in Brazil in the 21st Century
    • Of Argentina's 5 wins, 2 were friendlies (Qatar 2010 and USA 2012; I saw the latter in person) and 1 was the return leg of the 2012 Superclássico das Américas, but Brazil took that year's trophy on PKs. As the Superclássico das Américas is essentially a friendly, Argentina can then be concluded to have beaten Brazil in official FIFA matches only twice since 2000, and both times on home ground: 2001 and 2005 WCQ matches, 2-1 and 3-1.
    • Brazil won 3 Superclássico das Américas matches in regulation as well as a 3-0 friendly in 2006 in England.
    • Brazil 37 goals scored; Argentina 20 goals scored
    If the Superclássico das Américas matches are excluded, we're left with 14 matches, with 7 Brazilian wins (1 of them a friendly) vs. 4 for Argentina (and again, 2 of those 4 friendlies). The goal comparison would be 30 vs. 17 in favor of Brazil.

    Strangely enough, then, Brazil has struggled more against Paraguay and Uruguay than against Argentina, who is the "other" perennial CONMEBOL powerhouse.
     
  13. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    Indeed, the Uruguayans are an "osso duro de roer" (a bone that is very hard and difficult to chew on) as we say back in Brasil, and if we win this Thursday, I doubt it'll be like the 4-0 win we had in 2009. Neymar will be physically marked with the hopes of getting him to lose his temper. But Firmino is a great front-line player and he's done well when partnered with Neymar.

    Paraguay is another serious opponent, but they've lost their last three WCQ matches at Brazil, with a combined 8-2 scoreline. I'm definitely more concerned with Uruguay.
     
  14. Yañez

    Yañez Member+

    Oct 11, 2005
    Santiago, Llolleo
    Club:
    Univ de Chile
    Country:
    Chile
    I think Argentina will classify, even if we steal points. However, they are favorites and we will be ok if we get the 3 points vs Venezuela.
     
  15. Dominican Lou

    Dominican Lou Member+

    Nov 27, 2004
    1936 Catalonia
    No way Argentina fails to qualify.
     
  16. celito

    celito Member+

    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Country:
    Brazil
    Not when they play in Brazil. Yes when they play in Paraguay. Maybe you're saying this because Paraguay knocked us out of 2 recent CAs. Both were on PKs.
     
  17. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    3 WCQ matches in Brazil, 3 Brazilian wins, 8-2 aggregate score.
     
  18. Ohiginiano

    Ohiginiano Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    El Teniente Stadium
    Club:
    O Higgins Rancagua
    Que horrible la programacion de partidos por parte de la Conmebol. Todos los partidos casi a la misma hora.
     
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  19. Big Football

    Big Football Member

    Jun 25, 2001
    Some beach in Florida,
    Club:
    Deportes Tolima
    Country:
    Colombia
    Match just ended, Colombia 1(!!!) Bolivia 0. Bolivia just came and "parked the bus" and Colombia could not find a way, although there were 2 shots that hit the posts.
     
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  20. legendofzola

    legendofzola Member

    Jun 4, 2006
    HRM
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Country:
    Canada
    No stopping Paulinho
     
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  21. AcesHigh

    AcesHigh Member+

    Nov 30, 2005
    Novo Hamburgo
    Club:
    Gremio Porto Alegre
    Country:
    Brazil
    You were right. Uruguay scored one this time.
     
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  22. guri

    guri Member+

    Apr 10, 2002
    I remember the days when losing at the Centenario meant the coach was gone in shame. Look at this guy now! Over 100G a month to play like effing Bolivia?
    Who do we have to play against in the playoffs?
    :thumbsdown:
     
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  23. Yañez

    Yañez Member+

    Oct 11, 2005
    Santiago, Llolleo
    Club:
    Univ de Chile
    Country:
    Chile
    Well, we need to beat Venezuela and all is right with the world. Surprised by Uruguay. As for the crowd, awful behavior in terms of respecting national anthem. I heard some "chileno this and that...", but I don't care, I know they are not really racist and it's part of the game. When the whistle blows we all get along and have a beer (happened in Copa America Chile).

    My point is that it indeed is normal and we should not be fined for doing the exact same thing.
     
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  24. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Country:
    Colombia
    In a spreadsheet that I downloaded, here are the odds after the last results and running 1000 simulations:

    Team Qualify/Playoffs
    1 Brazil 100.0%/ 0.0%
    2 Uruguay 88.0%/9.7%
    3 Argentina 86.5%/8.7%
    4 Colombia 49.9%/26.7%
    5 Chile 47.8%/27.2%
    6 Ecuador 23.5%/20.1%
    7 Paraguay 3.0%/5.2%
    8 Peru 1.3%/2.4%
    9 Venezuela 0.0%/0.0%
    10 Bolivia 0.0%0.0%


    IOW, Brasil is in, Venezuela and Bolivia are out. Argentina and Uruguay have very good chances to advance but they still could fail to qualify.
     
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  25. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Country:
    Argentina
    This makes no sense since 4 teams will qualify directly to the WC, plus one playoff spot. According to these numbers, only 3 team will likely qualify as the rest each have more chance not to make it than to make it.
     

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