By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
  1. Dan Loney

    Dan Loney BigSoccer Supporter

    Mar 10, 2000
    Cincilluminati
    Club:
    Los Angeles Sol
    Country:
    Philippines

    Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

    By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
    I didn’t mean to imply in the last scroll that Deloitte only had one paragraph on the argument that promotion and relegation advances player development. I simply picked one particularly terrible paragraph on player development.

    Now, let’s look at the other terrible paragraphs.

    In the Executive Summary, Deloitte says that promotion and relegation would improve American player development in three ways:

    Executive Summary p5.PNG

    1. “Increased competition at all levels of the club pyramid .

    2. More ambitious ownership “may improve facility and coaching provision.”

    3. “Better player development would assist the US National Team’s ambitions, and provide a potential revenue stream for owners looking to realise value through player transfers.”

    Number 3 isn’t even an assertion that promotion and relegation helps player development, it’s just a statement that better players usually get bigger transfer fees.

    Numbers 1 and 2 depend on promotion and relegation motivating owners. But motivation exists already, “at all levels of the club pyramid.” Ambitious owners, like players, have a plethora – nay, even a surfeit of positive motivation. Fame, fortune, that sort of thing. The idea that further negative motivation is necessary is, well, speculative at best.

    Think about what we’re saying when we say promotion and relegation influences player development.

    And think further about what we’re saying when we say promotion and relegation is the most important influence on player development.

    Because if you have been thinking about those statements, you will have already concluded that neither is true. Barcelona has a basketball team fifteen years older than the oldest NBA team. Spain has had a promotion and relegation basketball league since 1957.

    And if you put an all-time Spain team against an all-time Missouri Valley Conference team, the Spanish would be crushed. (Assuming Larry Bird and Oscar Robertson would mesh adequately. But I’m sure Wes Unseld could have handled things until Bird and Big O worked it out.)

    It’s at this point that the promotion/relegation player development argument veers into a soccer cul-de-sac. Population, economy, training, popularity of sport – all those things may be important in other sports. But soccer is different. So goes the theory.

    And it’s true. The United States has produced none of the world’s best soccer players at any point in history. So there must be some reason why the United States can produce all-time greats in basketball, baseball, gridiron football, ice hockey, bicycling, tennis, boxing, auto racing, track and field, skiing, mixed martial arts, golf, rowing, diving, Greco-Roman wrestling, freestyle wrestling, sumo wrestling, gymnastics, volleyball, long-distance running, swimming, ice skating, speed skating, bobsled, weightlifting, skateboarding, BMX, and bowling….

    ….and freaking rugby, if you go by Olympic gold medals in the 1920’s….

    …but not in soccer. Maybe it’s promotion and relegation.

    (Well, the men haven’t. We should probably get around at some point to talking about how women’s soccer is completely ignored in this report.)

    But why? What’s so special about soccer?

    Because soccer is a global sport…unlike basketball, baseball, ice hockey, bicycling, tennis, boxing, auto racing, track and field, skiing, mixed martial arts, golf, rowing, diving, Greco-Roman wrestling, freestyle wrestling, sumo wrestling, gymnastics, volleyball, long-distance running, swimming, ice skating, speed skating, bobsled, weightlifting, skateboarding, BMX, and bowling? We pretty much have to pretend soccer is the only global sport.

    Because soccer has a very, very specific set of talents and requirements that sets it apart? So we’d have soccer as a physical endeavor on one side, and that every other sport in the world is more like every other sport in the world than it is like soccer. Another interesting theory. And one that would have to explain why soccer and cricket are more similar than, say, cricket and baseball. Weird that America hasn’t come up with any cricket stars.

    In the actual report…by the way. The whole point of an Executive Summary is to, oh, what’s the word I’m after, summarize the actual report. While not everything in the report needs to be in the Executive Summary, the report should not be significantly different than what is described in the Executive Summary. Because then we don’t have an Executive Summary, we have Executive Extraneous Sentences.

    In the actual report, Deloitte refers back to Roger Noll’s 2002 analysis of promotion and relegation. Which was not about player development. You can tell it wasn’t about player development, because the quote Deloitte uses doesn’t refer to player development, either.

    “Holding the demand for soccer constant across countries and team locations within those countries, a nation with promotion/relegation will have stronger teams than a nation with leagues of fixed size. For example, the primary soccer league in the U.S., Major League Soccer, always will be weaker than the top European leagues even if soccer becomes as popular in the U.S. as it is in Europe because MLS does not practice promotion and relegation.”

    (Enthusiasts of pro/relicana can name several more recent authors addressing the topic in greater specifics, let alone greater emotion. And we’ve seen how unpicky and non-choosy Deloitte has been with its sources. So basically, how much do you have to suck for Deloitte to have ignored you? I’m not going to name any names, but there have got to be at least five guys out there who should be taking this snub personally. The poor Kleibans must be climbing the walls. Oh – I guess I am going to name names.)

    Noll makes two crucial misassumptions, one overt and one implicit. The implicit one is the same everyone else makes – that negative motivation produces results, no matter what other factors may be happening.

    The explicit one is assumption is almost a disqualification of Noll’s entire paper. There is no reason to “hold the demand for soccer constant” when discussing American soccer. If the demand for American soccer was constant…well, we’d probably be talking about something else.

    Even accepting Noll’s premise, it again boils down to the idea that motivation is directly proportional to success. The promotion and relegation/player development premise suggests, if not demands, that every promotion and relegation nation be better than any “closed” league. The United States has a string of World Cup appearances it did not used to have. The only other time the United States had similar strength in international soccer was around the time of the 1930 World Cup. Coincidentally, there was a strong league in the 1920’s. Interestingly, that strong league didn’t relegate or promote a single team in its history.

    The United States and Australia should to this very day be helpless in international soccer. This is not the case. Australia is currently the reigning champion of Asia. Poor, pitiful little MLS hasn’t managed to win its continental club championship (since 2001, anyway), but not even the most ungenerous observer would claim that the A-League is inferior to the more established promotion and relegation leagues in Asia. An A-League team even won the Asian Champions League in 2014. According to Noll, this should never have happened.

    And, of course, as we saw in our last little visit, Brazil in the 1950’s and early 1960’s did acceptably without promotion and relegation.

    Deloitte also produces a chart comparing population with FIFA ranking as of August 2016.

    Ranking v Population.PNG

    Speaking of Australia’s competition on the international stage. You may be looking for China on this chart. You’ll find them about one monitor to your right, and one monitor up. You do have a four monitor display, don’t you?

    If only China had promotion and relegation. Oh, really? Since the death of Chairman Mao? Wonder why it’s not working.

    Deloitte also quotes an ESPNFC report showing that fewer MLS players, but still a majority, would prefer a promotion/relegation system to Brand X.

    ESPN poll.PNG

    I wonder why fewer players nowadays see promotion and relegation as something desirable. Maybe it’s been the enlightening and entertaining work of forward-thinking writers such as Modesty Forbids.

    (I’m a huge fan of hers.)

    I think at this point Deloitte UK officially stopped trying. The whole point of this report was to show how much money everyone was going to make by adopting promotion and relegation. When we started this section, it was all about how promotion and relegation was going to bring in more television ratings and higher transfer fees and how owners and players would have to learn to make boxes out of money just to have more places to store their money. Not fifteen pages later, Deloitte UK literally wonders why so many players like the idea.

    I mean, I have more confidence in my World Cup picks, and I picked Cameroon to win once.

    "More vibrant sporting competition." I wonder what the current Vibrancy Ratings are in UEFA. Or perhaps "exciting" was the word our Thesaurus rex was groping for. Be such vibrant excitement as it may not or may, and previously we've discussed how Deloitte UK sort of forgot to prove that increased vibrancy leads to increased people actually watchingancy, I have every confidence that if in the next poll ESPN asks the players if they'd be interested in taking a pay cut for the sake of promotion and relegation, we'd get those numbers down to a level where Scott Carey would have to squint to see them.

    I have my own theory on how to build the number of viewers, fans and players, thanks for asking. It’s that increased popular interest in a sport increases its economic viability, which in turn increases the amount of time and resources put into training people to perform those jobs.

    I know, crazy, right. In our next chapter, we bask in the sparkle of this little gem from Deloitte’s report:

    While there has been great success in increasing the franchise fee for new (expansion) franchises, there is yet to be evidence of asset appreciation of existing US club soccer franchises, and the subsequent realisation of this value (and profit) through a sale.

    But first, let’s take a little more time off to enjoy the US men’s national team in World Cup qualifiers. At least for a given definition of “enjoy.”
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Articles' started by Dan Loney, Oct 5, 2017.

    1. Beau Dure

      Beau Dure Member+

      May 31, 2000
      Vienna, VA

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      I thought I read something about MLS clubs getting megarich and megavaluable because of their closed system at some point.

      Oh ... right ... it was the NASL's lawsuit.
       
      Cavan9 and swoot repped this.
    2. SetPeace

      SetPeace Member+

      Jun 22, 2004
      SC Illinois
      Club:
      Torquay United
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Props to Dan for giving a shout out to the Missouri Valley Conference, the second oldest collegiate league in America! The membership has changed drastically over the years. The only charter member left in it is Drake.
       
      russ repped this.
    3. Brother Badgerjohn

      Oct 16, 2000
      Okie City
      Club:
      --other--
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      As a former Tulsan, I was upset at the lack of mention of Paul Pressey
       
    4. USRufnex

      USRufnex Member+

      Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
      United States
      Jul 15, 2000
      Tulsa, OK
      Club:
      --other--

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Bigsoccer - a vehicle for anti-Pro/Rel zealots like Dan Loney to go on and on infinutum.
      One critique on the Deloitte study would have been enough.

      Equal time for others with contrasting and opposing views, please.
      That's all I'm asking.
       
    5. BalanceUT

      BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

      Oct 8, 2006
      Appalachia
      Club:
      Real Salt Lake
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Kejsare repped this.
    6. USRufnex

      USRufnex Member+

      Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
      United States
      Jul 15, 2000
      Tulsa, OK
      Club:
      --other--

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Wichita State moving to the AAC.
       
    7. kenntomasch

      kenntomasch Member+

      Sep 2, 1999
      Out West
      Club:
      FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      If only there were some way for you to comment on the things you see on Bigsoccer.

      Or anywhere on the internet. Or in life in general.

      I feel ya. The Man is keeping you down. Keeping great takes like "I would just like to see it," and "he's being so mean to me" from reaching the masses.

      Your "opposing views" are on the record. They don't amount to much. Because you - in your overgrown adolescent way - refuse to acknowledge facts and, instead, focus on yelling at the people who point out what's wrong with your point of view and saying they're just zealots who talk too much for your liking.

      Facts:
      • Pro/rel was created to address a problem the United States does not currently have, that being too many teams of a similar quality to fit into the existing top flight. (Just one or two is not enough, sorry, depending on how one feels about Miami.) It was not created to "give every team a chance."
      • In this neck of the woods, teams simply cannot make the move to MLS (organizationally or infrastructurally) in the short period of time between seasons. Most lower-level teams are not adequately staffed, do not have stadium or training facility or revenue-generating infrastructure to give their move upwards in such a short period of time sufficient backing.
      • There is no reason to believe that any supposed positive knock-on effects from a pro/rel system (player development, national team success, higher attendance, higher television ratings) would apply here, given there are countries with such systems that do not have successful leagues and national teams and those that do have successful leagues and national teams are far more likely to be from having more than a century of soccer culture in an industrialized nation than from the fact that their worst first-division teams get relegated every year and their best second-division teams get promoted in a deck-shuffling.
      • In this country, it is far, far more important that an organization/team/club/franchise have the economic means to survive than it is they have the ability to find 18-23 guys who can win whatever playoff system an 8-to-12 team lower league can come up with. One season's worth of results is an ephemeral way to decide who's ready to go to the big(ger) time.
      • You and your ilk are not taken seriously because those who have just discovered "hey, we have a soccer league here" don't think more than 30 seconds about the issue, other than to say, "We should be like everybody else! Yeah!" And those who should know better - as mentioned - ignore the facts and, instead, focus on the messenger. Or keep repeating things that have been debunked. Or think hashtags and lawsuits are going to get the results they want.
      You want your own views out there, Jeff? Go ahead. You're free to write them wherever you like. I'm sure you'll find a willing audience with Airplane Boy and Tinfoil Ted and Deacon Dipshit and the other hashtaggers.

      But the rest of us have read your nonsense for years. You have nothing to add that can't be quickly seen through. You have no facts. You have nothing that dovetails with common sense or economic reality or the current soccer landscape.

      Just quit whining. Jesus H. Christ on a popsicle stick, Jeff, stop whining.
       
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    8. USRufnex

      USRufnex Member+

      Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
      United States
      Jul 15, 2000
      Tulsa, OK
      Club:
      --other--

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Equal time.
      Period.
      Nothing more.
      Nothing less.
      And yes Kenn, you're still an insufferable attendance obsessed asshole.
      Have a nice day.
       
    9. Beau Dure

      Beau Dure Member+

      May 31, 2000
      Vienna, VA

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Dang -- this sums up a lot of the blog series I just finished. I feel like I should've been more concise now.
       
      Kejsare and Brother Badgerjohn repped this.
    10. AndyMead

      AndyMead Homo Sapien

      Nov 2, 1999
      Seat 12A
      Club:
      Sporting Kansas City

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      What's preventing you? It's an open forum?

      I don't blog on BigSoccer because I don't feel like it. When I did? They published my stuff. Have you actually, you know, asked?

      Or do you just want to have a pity party and act aggrieved.

      Equal time? Go ahead - go for it. I literally see nobody stopping you.
       
      BalanceUT, Kejsare and JulesMIA repped this.
    11. Cavan9

      Cavan9 Member

      Nov 16, 2011
      Silver Spring, MD
      Club:
      DC United
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      If you've got the law on your side, argue the law. If you've got the facts on your side, argue the facts. If you have neither, pound the table.
       
    12. Beau Dure

      Beau Dure Member+

      May 31, 2000
      Vienna, VA

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
    13. USRufnex

      USRufnex Member+

      Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
      United States
      Jul 15, 2000
      Tulsa, OK
      Club:
      --other--

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      It doesn't have to be me, it could be any number of people.

      Why Bigsoccer chose to feature a SIX PART series bashing the Deloitte report written by a known anti-Pro/Rel partisan hack wreaks to high heaven.

      I see Bigsoccer's clique members have achieved a quorum.
       
    14. Beau Dure

      Beau Dure Member+

      May 31, 2000
      Vienna, VA

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Again ...
      https://duresport.com/2017/09/23/promotionrelegation-propagandareality-part-4-pros-positives/

      And if you want more, I believe Dan linked to a report funded by a known pro-Pro/Rel partisan hack ...
       
      Cavan9 and Brother Badgerjohn repped this.
    15. USRufnex

      USRufnex Member+

      Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
      United States
      Jul 15, 2000
      Tulsa, OK
      Club:
      --other--

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Your contention that Silva is a partisan hack speaks volumes, not about him... but about you.

      Silva has skin in the game and is NOT a partisan hack.

      Dan has had anti-Pro/Rel meltdowns on twitter and is a known twitter spammer. Someone whose views should never be allowed to dominate the Bigsoccer home page IMHO.

      Just so you know, Beau, as a general rule, I refuse to read the work of those who have me blocked on twitter... "You are blocked from following @duresport and viewing @duresport's Tweets. Learn more"

      Have a nice day.
       
    16. kgilbert78

      kgilbert78 Member+

      Dec 28, 2006
      Cowlumbus, OH
      Club:
      Borussia Mönchengladbach
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      But Kenn like actually worked for a team, for a number of years, in the lower levels of the pyramid.... Perhaps he might actually know something about how the business is run.
       
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    17. kgilbert78

      kgilbert78 Member+

      Dec 28, 2006
      Cowlumbus, OH
      Club:
      Borussia Mönchengladbach
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      I will take a slight quibble with Dan's comment

      "The United States has produced none of the world’s best soccer players at any point in history."​

      You might be able to make a case for Bert Patenaude, who was the first player to score a World Cup hattrick. For a team that finished third in the World Cup.

      But I get the point.
       
      Cavan9 repped this.
    18. Brother Badgerjohn

      Oct 16, 2000
      Okie City
      Club:
      --other--
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      I've never seen anything about your O's to suggest that there is any H to them.
       
      russ, Cavan9 and AndyMead repped this.
    19. Cavan9

      Cavan9 Member

      Nov 16, 2011
      Silver Spring, MD
      Club:
      DC United
      Country:
      United States

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Silva wants a piece of an appreciating asset (MLS/SUM) without paying for it. He's using pro pro/rel fans as his useful idiots.

      He wants to have a team worth $300 million plus whatever the part ownership in SUM is worth without having to pay an expansion fee and building a major league level stadium. Pro/rel is the only way it happens. Silva is just a crummy businessman trying to make a ton of money without taking the risk the other MLS have.
       
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    20. Beau Dure

      Beau Dure Member+

      May 31, 2000
      Vienna, VA

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      I suppose I should say for the record that Silva isn't really a "partisan hack." But he's certainly partisan. Far moreso than Dan or Kenn or me or Andy or anyone else. We're just pointing out reasons why pro/rel isn't likely to be implemented soon or to solve all of life's problems. We actually disagree quite a bit over whether it should be on the table in the USA right now.

      So we do have equal time. You have me and Dan. We disagree about pro/rel as a generality. We just agree that we're sick of people inventing their own facts to force other people to make it happen.
       
    21. Dan Loney

      Dan Loney BigSoccer Supporter

      Mar 10, 2000
      Cincilluminati
      Club:
      Los Angeles Sol
      Country:
      Philippines

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Oh, I disagree. His opinions are very humble, and, in the words of Winston, with much to be humble about.

      I WANNA READ SOMETHING I AGREE WITH WAAAAAAAHHHHHHH

      And by the way, it's going to be closer to eight or nine parts at this rate. I'm sipping this whiskey, brothers and sisters.
       
      mosca, AndyMead, Cavan9 and 1 other person repped this.
    22. USRufnex

      USRufnex Member+

      Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
      United States
      Jul 15, 2000
      Tulsa, OK
      Club:
      --other--

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Says the guy who seems hellbent on achieving lunatic status against those he disagrees...

      You twitter spammed me... you twitter spammed an actual sports journalist... it's downright creepy... along with your latest maniacal obsession with a Deloitte report that has more reasonable facts and recommendations than about a dozen CS&L feasibility studies put together.

      Congratulations.
      You're living proof that Bigsoccer has become hopelessly out of date and perpetually closed minded.
       
    23. USRufnex

      USRufnex Member+

      Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
      United States
      Jul 15, 2000
      Tulsa, OK
      Club:
      --other--

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      The man's been out of the loop for many years and even admitted as much to me around 2009 or 2010 at a time when I practically begged him for advice on how to keep a 11k seat ballpark from being demolished while trying to identify and recruit suitable community ownership for a team in either the USL or NASL.

      Even when he was in "the business," I happened to be working for Indianapolis Opera for a couple of seasons at the time he was working for the Blast in the late 1990's, and to call that group a professional organization would be a stretch.
       
    24. AndyMead

      AndyMead Homo Sapien

      Nov 2, 1999
      Seat 12A
      Club:
      Sporting Kansas City

      Deloitte UK's Promotion and Relegation Report - Part 6

      By Dan Loney on Oct 5, 2017 at 3:18 PM
      Hmm
       

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