I was probably wrong, Silver adjusts for team composition based on how many A-team players are starting. That inherently favors WC games (barring injury). The argument that Jozy is not good against elite competition is currently a winning argument. The argument that he increased his class is not.
Looks like a class improvement. He is far more active yet his poor touches and possession loss have not increased. He is winning a higher % of dribbles and aerials. dribble success/failure ratio per 90 min = 25% improvement aerial win percentage = 44% goal creation per 90 = 54% tackles = 13% interceptions = 400% fouled = 50% fouls = 30% clearances = 300% unsuccessful touches = 0% dispossession = 0%
Key: TFC TFC SAFC SAFC HCAFC Shots/90 2.8 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.8 KP+A/90 1.5 1.1 .9 1.2 1.6 AerialWL/90 2.4/1.8 1.6/2.3 4.7/3 3.7/6.4 .9/3.1 DribblesSU/90 .9/1.1 .5/.9 1.2/3.3 .6/1 1/2.6 Fouled/90 3.3 2.2 .3 2.1 3.5 Possession loss/90 per passes/90 4.3/31 4.3/30 6/26 4.4/25 3.3*/17 *may be missing one component
Fwiw, Silver adjusts for strength based upon lineup and where he doesn't know the strength they still weight the bigger games more heavily. The idea being that the friendlies/lesser competitive games add something, but they aren't as strong of indicators. That issue aside, couple of things that I'm surprised haven't been directly discussed here. Everyone's strike rate declines vs quality teams because spaces are smaller, defenses are more organized and we have less possession. Altidore's declines more than not only our better players but also the bigger stable of strikers we've had since about 98. Why? Some of it might be luck/form/sample size, but the evidence is too strong for these to be the only reasons. My theory is that Jozy doesn't have an obvious strength. Compared to maybe a dozen historical regulars, he's average in the air, technically, creatively/technically, and in terms of speed/quickness. That's not a bad thing. Against lesser competition, our service will look relatively world class and that veracity leads to a lot of goals. Against better teams, our chances are more limited and require specific strengths to produce goals. One ball slipped through that requires speed/quickness was something that an EJ, Davies, and Wolff could use to play to their strengths over Altidore. Donovan+Dempsey+fit Mathis are technically superior with better pure instincts. McBride doesn't need the same quality of service to create an aerial chance off a restart/cross. And those are the ways we score vs better teams: a moment of really precise creative/technical play, a ball in the middle someone latches onto even though it wasn't perfect, and slipping a ball where attacker speed makes the difference. Im doubtful his skill set will ever lead to high goal scoring rates vs quality, because he needs very specific pieces around him for this to occur. That doesn't mean he doesn't indirectly create goals with his presence though. He's versatile enough to permit us to play a wider variety of players around him.
I'm watching Match of the Day cover West Brom/Southampton and i'm wondering how a guy like Shane Long has started for several clubs despite having a scoring rate of like 1 goal every 5 matches in the PL. It's comparable to his stats with Ireland. 17 goals in 71 caps. Jozy went to the wrong club. Relegation fodder clubs in the PL are something our strikers should always avoid. Just shocking though Long has an average PL career yet our boy was a "flop". To be fair we've only had McBride, Dempsey score at consistent rates for a club that fought relegation/mid-table status. Joe Max Moore could be considered a flop, though mostly due to injuries right?
Well Sunderland was willing to pay a big transfer fee, and I'm sure Altidore wanted to put the bad showing at Hull behind him and prove he belonged in England. Also this was before MLS was splashing for American players big time, so really hard to say no to PL money when it came calling. I still can't believe how bad that move went. I remember the excitement in the YA forum, predictions about two goals in his debut and at least ten league goals the first season. How Sunderland was fine "for now" until a bigger club came calling. I don't think anyone would've predicted how it went down.