CSU Bakersfield 2017

1. It is always easier to defend than to attack.
2. NCAA regulations enforce this as repelated substitutions allow the negative team to always have fresh legs to run and run in order to block the playing team.
3. Thus the positive team needs either opponent's defensive mistakes, or talented special players who by some skills break the deadlock. (This explains the very high price of great forwards).

Unfortunately, the Runners do not have the special forward talents who can win a game by themselves. Their best scorer is a defender. So they have to adapt to this. I know that the staff and the players would love to play expansive dream football, but life is life: so the focus is to reach the conference tournament.

And in their current context, they are right: football is a highly tactical game of two halves with narrow wins (1-0 is sufficient) defined by mistakes and psychological strength. Only few teams have mastered fully their destiny within each generation.
If you can see the replay of the recent ManCity-Napoli game. The art to break down very well organised teams: both teams each in turn used different tactics to create opportunities. Often starting from deep using the central backs, trying to attract the opposition défense higher up the pitch and to find cracks.
But then you need a De Bruyne or an Insigne to make the difference.

 

Well it had to happen. And it happened. If the team is prepared to be cautious, and if your better scorer is a defender, well you can muster only one SoG against UIW. O.N.E. S.o.G during 110' of play against UIW.

And guess what happened, during the OT? You get a goal against you and you loose sadly.

Runners go back home from Texas with a single point. It could have been zero without the heroics of their GK against UTRGV.
The approach to the games must be different, the team is not prepared to play, to be bold. i.e. not prepared to win.
This w.e. I watched three very weak teams. And it is no fun.

 

Another important game after the recent very disappointing results, against UMKC and it is the senior night. So it is the opportunity to show they can play a positive football rather than the sad cautious approach that led them to loose points against very weak teams.

#CSUBmsoc: Come out to the Main Soccer Field tonight at 7 p.m. to celebrate our `Runner seniors! #allrunners #WACmsoc @csub_football pic.twitter.com/e7qw43Y4NE

— CSUB ATHLETICS (@CSUBAthletics) October 28, 2017

 

The Runners win 2-1 in the first OT. Two beautiful goals by Sebastian Mentel.

They took the lead, but as a classic in football lost their heads during the 2-3 minutes following the overstretched celebrations (including staff and benchers). So UKMC were able to put, for the first time of the game, some pressure. And thus equalized.
The Runners were indeed controlling the game, until this moment of lost lucidity.
Then they came back and at the end deserve this OT win.

They improve their position in the ranking (4th), but play the mighty Air Force on Sunday, so we might anticipate a loss. Even if this season the Runners are undefeated in their stadium.
In this case it is likely the last game at San Jose State will be critical as the positions for qualifying in the seven tournament seats are so close. Seven teams can still hope to go through, without counting Air Force and Seattle who are comfortably occupying the two first spots.

 

The Runners logically fall vs Air Force. 2-1, a resolute defense but it was not enough.

The last day in the WAC is going to be a blood bath. With this week-end results. there are still a lot of teams remaining to bid for the tournament seats. Like last year........
CSUB will play @ San Jose State for a very tough game.

If CSUB miss the tournament they will regret their negative approach to the games they lost against Incarnate World and Houston Baptist, the two teams currently at the bottom with 6 poor points. It was inexcusable to loose these games. Also the draw against UTRGV, obtained after a non-match, will prove a bad result: karma.

But let's be positive: if they play positively they have the means to beat SJS. So no more sad negative defensive only approach. Leverage your skills!

 

#CSUBmsoc: `Runners Set For Regular-Season Finale At SJSU: https://t.co/6Ej8I5UU4z #allrunners #WACmsoc @csub_football

— CSUB ATHLETICS (@CSUBAthletics) November 2, 2017

 

In the article (link in the above tweet), the following analysis of Runners' chances is (beware of forthcoming head aches...):

"The `Runners control their own destiny which is what you always want in situations like this. You win and you are in. Lose? Then you need to scoreboard watch and that is the worst feeling.
CSUB and San Jose State is the only WAC match played on Friday. The remaining schedule will be played on Saturday, Nov. 4 and here in bold are the other meaningful matches for the Runners:
UTRGV at UIW
UNLV at GCU
Seattle U at Utah Valley

(The last game not impacting Runners' fate is Air Force at Kansas City)​

If UTRGV or UVU lose, CSUB, GCU and SJSU are all in. Both Utah Valley AND UTRGV must both win to throw chaos into the WAC tournament."​

Hereafter, the ranking (all teams having one remaining game except HB... already eliminated): meaning seven teams can still hope grabbing one of the four remaining available seats of the conference tournement.
I will not compute all permutations... I leave this privilege to our Master Brain aka GauchoDan.
But it is sure that all teams have their destiny in their hands, and the match schedule has two "direct" oppositions: SJU-CSUB and UIW-UTRGV.

Air Force 23
Seattle U 18
UNLV 18
Grand Canyon 13
CSU Bakersfield 13
San José State 13
UT Rio Grande Valley 11
Utah Valley 11
Kansas City 9
UIW 9
Houston Baptist 6

Let's enjoy this promisingly nerve-racking week-end ​

 

Thanks Dan.
I knew it would require a Cray computer handled by Albert Einstein to make it Thus I passed the buck to the nearest brilliant volunteer around
So this night at 4am, I will watch the game hoping my son's Runners win the game so that I do not spend my savings in bulk paracetamol purchase....
And again thousands of thanks for your wise expertise and the time you grant us to share your wonderful findings.

 

Great job. Take the nap in a hammock with a good Cuba Libre. You deserve it.

 

The game was at 1 PM PT. We thought it was the usual time at 7 PM. So we missed the start...aaaarrrgghh
SJSU leads 1-0 at the break. And got the rare clear opportunities of the game.
From the 20' I saw, poor game, poor football, a lot of technical mistakes. Both teams seem more afraid to loose than wanting to win. Especially CSUB who only sends long balls which are irremediably lost and comfortably dealt by the SJSU defense.
So if it continues like this, finally it was better that it started early, because watching such a poor show at 4 am would have made me more than irritated
Let's hope the teams remove the shackles and the hand brakes and start to play the game of football.

 

This is totally feasible and conceivable. As we can imagine that Seattle and Las Vegas are not motivated as already qualified and that UTRGV easily beat the weak UIW.

 

Voila, what a surprise. SJSU makes it 1-0.
Only the last minutes of the game saw the Runners attempting something. But, as a classic, too little too late.

Now the Runners have to wait for tomorrow results and count on luck. If they do not have it, well we can say they deserve it. If they pass, well good for the kids.
They might regret their previous negative approach looking for draws and playing very cautious football.

Result: the team does not know any more to attack, to control a game and to score enough goals (i.e. one more than the opponent) in a sustainable manner: too many balls hoofed over the park for midget forwards who never get it (nor the second ball). So the opponents grow confidence and the defense has to deal with waves and waves of attacks. It lead to defeats against UIW and HB the bottom teams of the ranking and to draw against a colorless UTRGV.
Depressing.