Non CFL & MLS cities have no pro sports going on. CPL will be virtually unchallenged. Cities within CFL markets are big enough for both sports which at the same times targets 2 very different demography/generations. (CPL mostly under 45 & CFL mostly Boomers and some Gen X) Disagree. April is the best time to start and looking at Winnipeg, (Av. high/low are between 0 and 11 degrees) Quebec City (Av. high/low are between 0 and 8 degrees) Saskatoon (Av. high/low are between -1 and 12 degrees) Halifax (Av. high/low are between 1 and 9 degrees) The biggest concern will be to make sure spectators are protected from the elements, not temperature. As for the fall, it's really in November it starts to get cold, hence the league wanting to wrap up by the end of October. Besides, it's not like Canadians can't handle frigid cold temperature to watch sports (winter Classic, Grey Cup, MLS playoffs) Don't know how much summer vacation would affect the numbers...it clearly doesn't affect the CFL. As for getting people interested in the league, it comes down to marketing, quality of the product and presentation. This time, owners are willing to invest massively in those areas to present the league as a FIFA legitimate league and major league in Canada, something that wasn't done under USL, NASL since the old CSL. It's misleading to compare CPL potential to those leagues. CPL approach will be closer to what the current CFL is doing, not those soccer leagues.
This one is very hard to predict until we know exactly how the rosters will be built and how many internationals will be allowed. CPL is very aware of the current state of the domestic pool and have commit to find the right balance between quality & domestic content. The league has an idea of what it wants in terms of quality. Most comparison that was invoke at start was between NASL and MLS. A journalist had said that if this current MLS is "2.0", CPL would be "MLS 1.0", however, he predicts it won't take CPL 20 years to reach 2.0, which I think is accurate. The league's goals are very different than MLS as the CSA itself will be a major shareholder of the league. CPL-CSA's ultimate goal is to develop Canadian players while increasing the level of play for the league. In our circles we like to think of CPL as the Ligue 1 of CONCACAF where Liga MX is like Spain and MLS is like England. Ligue 1 isn't the strongest Euro league but it's pyramid and association are dead serious on player's development and have a much stronger National Team than most Euro nation. That's CPL goal, becoming a good league, developing players and having a consistent stronger national team.
If it's successful as MLS then in about 15 years you can expect non-CPL Canadian fans complaining about the CSA-CPL conspiracy and how it's stifling the growth of competitive soccer north of the border
Contrarily to what's happening to the United States, there are no Division 1 and 2 leagues in Canada. With CPL planning to occupy the top 3 tier, the CSA won't approve another D1 or D2 league. I suspect League 1 Ontario and Premiere Ligue du Quebec (PLSQ), both division 3 leagues, to strike some kind of deal with CPL when the time's come. The CSA is not hiding that it wants CPL has the monopoly here. Actually, I have a concrete example... The city of Hamilton and the ownership of CPL Hamilton, who also owns the CPL Hamilton Tiger-Cats, we're arguing over the exclusive rights of operating a soccer club out of Tim Horton Field Stadium. The city argued that their exclusivity rights had expired while the owners disagreed. Long story short, the city wanted to invite any parties willing to submit a proposal to operate a soccer club out of that stadium. In theory, TFC could have started a USL club and put it in Hamilton but the CSA decreed that any non-CPL team playing out of Hamilton stadium would be denied the CSA sanctioning. The city and CPL ownership settled. CPL Will have the monopoly on the Canadian pyramid for the top 3 tier in the long term
CPL starting with MLS 1996 levels of talent is more optimistic than I am, but not unrealistic. And the delays in launching don't overly concern me, because it's clear that they are because the league wants strong owners and geographic coverage with reasonably suitable facilities, not just the first six or eight multi-millionaires who sign up.
to move a bit away from the discussion(s) we have been having and going around in circles.....what is everyone's opinion on what this means? what should a CPL stadium look like?
At least 6-10K seating that can be expanded to 15+, purpose-built or substantially renovated to house a standard sized field, capable of supporting at least a four-camera broadcast.
when you say 15+ how big is the plus? I ask because (in my opinion) there has to be an issue that the first two teams are both playing in stadiums that, even with the most optimistic attendance expectations I have read, will have more than that number in empty seats.....that has to impact atmosphere/game day experience (not to mention any expectation/perception of ticket scarcity).....no?
The problem the CPL is going to have is that their revenue is going to be almost completely based on taking money from their fans' pockets. What little broadcast revenue is available in Canada is going to be sucked up by MLS, the CNTs, and probably the EPL. Any CPL broadcasts are almost certainly going to be, at best, paid informercials. Or timebuys where they try to break even by selling ad spots - similar to the pre-2002 MLS games on espn2. Unlike MLS, I'm not sure the CPL will ever be able to count on moving past that level. They're going to be left with national and local sponsorships - which will also be, in turn, somewhat dependent on attendance. And for national broadcast and sponsorship reasons, having MLS teams in the three big markets isn't going to help. I assume the pay is going to terrible. The CPL will almost certainly be nothing like "1996 MLS" levels. What separated MLS from what we see in US D2 today is the presence of the USMNT players and some value-add players like Donadoni, Valderrama, Campos, and friends. The CPL just isn't going to have those in the depth MLS did. And I'm not sure they should even try. They're not going to win a bidding war with the three MLS teams. I wouldn't be shocked to see a relatively quick rethink on MLS "2" teams. Looking at the transition the NWSL is going through from independent ownership to being paired with professional men's teams, I think it only makes sense to find a way to incorporate the big boys (TFC/IM/VWFC) and their deeper pockets and economies of scale in the CPL ownership.
Doesn't Canada have a high "made in canada" content quota for tv networks, which could inflate the demand for rights? Not saying it won't be time buys, especially assuming the big 3 markets will be out, but they are on a stronger footing than MLS was in 96.
I had that worry, too. Based on what I've experienced in Ottawa, however, I'm not as concerned. The atmosphere with 7000 fans packed into one portion of the stadium was really good despite the 15 000 empty seats elsewhere. I was pleasantly surprised. It depends on stadium design, I guess, because I've been at Skydome with 30 000 and it still felt cavernous. It won't do anything about ticket scarcity but it is at least possible to present a good atmosphere in an oversized stadium.
That is good to hear......the ticket scarcity is, actually the easiest part to deal with......you just cap the number you sell. As VCR show us in MLS, you can call 21k in a lower bowl of 27k a sellout just by not making the other 6k available.
Maybe speculating that the world would be a better place if only I could fly and zap lightning bolts out of my eyes to vanquish my enemies would be an equally "legitimate" question, but I shouldn't be suggesting an idea like that. At least not in public
CanCon may be a factor. Not a huge one though as it would seem all networks are currently CanCon compliant without CPL. If they needed the Canadian content to comply they might be willing to lose a bit of money to get it on the air......but, since they don’t need it, it will still have to make economic sense to get on the air.
The business plan has yet to be revealed. All we know is that the CFL business model was looked at in depth and their business have been good. Without saying that CPL would be as big as the CFL business-wise at the beginning, the goal is to build towards a similar model, similar level of success. At the moment, the league is talking to TV broadcasters and all media parties. The quality of their hiring (Greg McIsaac, former Director of Communications at TSN) & Mark Silver, former lead for TSN Go and CBC Olympic streaming) suggests that the league's scope might be bigger than what you're assuming. Recently, the commissioner Clanachan said that foreign companies are looking at CPL as a way to break in the Canadian market by offering new digital services. He also confirms that the league are talking to TV networks. Interestingly enough, the CBC quietly trademarked "Soccer Night in Canada" last year. Personally, the CBC would be perfect for their debut. It's free coast to coast and it's the best way to get as many Canadians to watch the league as possible. That's actually inaccurate. Reports said to expect the minimum salary to be within the CFL range which is today at $54k. CPL focus is developing new Canadian talent and surrounding them with a mix of quality internationals and veterans. I doubt we'll see MLS and CPL in bidding wars and personally hope they just go younger. If an CANMNT players wants to play in Canada, either MLS teams gives them a lucrative contract or they choose CPL but the league seems adamant at not making the mistake of overpaying for them. Younger is the better route. The league is looking at making mandatory to have a minimum amount of minutes for youth players. James Easton, who's been named head of soccer operations, said that they have been looking at Liga MX and wants to instigate the same thing. Not in a million year. They were pitched the idea by MLS teams and let's say it didn't go over well. Vancouver Whitecaps president was even complaining that CPL weren't returning his calls. Besides, Vancouver and Montreal folded their teams and the league wants nothing to do with TFC II. The heart of the matter according to reports is that the MLS teams wanted in but only on their terms, which CPL flat out refused. CPL owners will also have deep pocket ownership. MLS mandate is incompatible with CPL mandate (development of Canadian talents as a priority).
From what they are claiming, players are going to make around $40k. It sounds like they are trying to insert themselves between USL and MLS with regards to pay. The theory is that they'll be able to pull the Canadians out of USL and maybe some of the ones bouncing around Europe that aren't getting attention from MLS.. Certain posters on this forum have claimed they'll be able to get Canadians out of MLS that aren't getting playing time.. I'm not sure that is likely given the pay disparity..
This all reminds me of the launch of the WUSA in 2001. Big multi-media corporations with deep pockets and a huge war chest with lots of experience in marketing and business. All pledged to support the league for at least 5 years. They burned through $60 million in the first year and the league was lucky to finish the second season. It only played a third because of the SARS relocation of the WWC03 from China to the U.S. and the hope that repeating the WWC99 success would bring in new investment and sponsors. I want the CPL to succeed. I'm just wary.
I think you're about as pessimistic as circumstances allow. But given the history of pro soccer in the US and Canada (which you know about as well as anyone), I don't think it's an unreasonable perspective. After all, MLS nearly failed six years in, and it's clearly the most successful pro league that these countries have ever seen. USL is probably second, and it's had a couple brushes with death, too. Nor would it be a stretch to claim both USL and NWSL would have folded by now without MLS. Pro soccer here is hard.
CPL has extensively studied past mistakes made by defunct leagues and current league. They are well equipped to avoid the same early mistakes other leagues did
You can never know everything that might come up. You cannot study every scenario possible. I am sure all of those defunct leagues, felt and announced that they had done exhaustive studies to ensure success as well when they started. Hard to get investors by just winging it. I am very hopeful that the CPL will be a big hit in Canada. I also know that anything can happen, and to assume otherwise is to be ignorant of how the world works. MLS, which I am sure studied a lot of leagues, and built up a big beautiful business plan was moments away from failure and saved by 3 guys who honestly had more money then they knew what to do with and for some reason felt things could/would turn around. That day WILL come for the CPL. It comes for all new sports leagues. The question becomes, can the investors truly stomach it? Their words are great right now, but when crap hits the fan, that is when you actually see the resolve of investors. Hopefully we will see that they are in the next 10 years.