CONCACAF Qualifying For World Cup 2018 Prediction Contest: Round 1 [R]

I changed your predictions in my spreadsheet.

The five matchups other than Bahamas-Bermuda and Curacao-Montserrat have had everybody predict the same country to advance.

 

@Outburstz
@chec
@dinamo_zagreb
@jagum
@Sebsasour
@blacksun
@ioppolo
@PaulieJay

All of you predicted St. Kitts and Nevis-Turks and Caicos Islands before the order was changed. St. Kitts and Nevis will host the first leg on Monday. You can change your predictions if you want.

For any two leg series you cannot change your second leg prediction during or after the first leg. You must have both games predicted before the first leg kicks off.

I might wait to post prediction scores until after both legs of all the series because the games are close together.

 

1. You can't change your predictions because the first leg was played already.
2. You didn't change your predictions. Those were the same scores I had in my spreadsheet for you.

Everybody has 4, 5, or 6 points from score predictions so far. The scores will be weighted after the round is over and Round 1 score predictions are worth 2.1% of the total. dinamo_zagreb, blacksun, and drt2k3 have the best score predictions so far.

 

@bartecky

You can still join, and you should also make predictions for Dominica-British Virgin Islands and Montserrat-Curacao. When you made your predictions, did you put the home team for each leg first or the first leg home team first both times? You cannot make predictions for the second legs of the series whose first leg was played already. The contest includes all rounds of qualifying and ends in October 2017, so if you predict the rest of the contest the games you missed won't matter much. You missed 1.8% of the contest. Round 1 is worth 4.2%.

 

Belize-Cayman Islands started before you posted so I'm not counting those predictions. I entered the other three sets into my spreadsheet.

Today there is one first leg and two second legs.

 

I did.

 

You have two exact scores, but only 7 correct results, which is tied for the second fewest out of the 13 people who predicted every game. If Montserrat draws or wins, blacksun will have the best score predictions. If Montserrat loses, blacksun, Sebsasour, and/or Dr. Gamera will have the best score predictions with a tie being possible. The most correct results out of 13 so far is 10 by four people. blacksun has four exact scores and nobody else has more than two.

If anybody posts there e-mail address or starts a Conversation (private message) with me with their e-mail address I will e-mail you my spreadsheet.

 

Here are the results. The two components were worth 2.1 each and the total score is out of 4.2. I rounded numbers to the nearest thousandth (three decimal places).

Aggregate winner predictions (0.3 each):

EvanJ, chec, Dr. Gamera, jagum, Sebsasour, blacksun, ioppolo, PaulieJay, ChaChaFut, drt2k3, and italiancbr are 11 people who got 2.1
dinamo_zagreb got 1.8
Outburstz got 1.5
bartecky got 1.2. All of his predictions were correct but he predicted too late so he couldn't predict three of the series.

For score predictions, the highest plain score was 33 out of 56 for blacksun. Scores were adjusted so everybody's score was their plain score/33*2.1:

1. blacksun: 2.100 (exact scores for Nicaragua-Anguilla, Curacao-Montserrat, Bermuda-Bahamas, and Cayman Islands-Belize)
2. EvanJ: 1.782 (exact scores for Cayman Islands-Belize and Montserrat-Curacao)
3. Sebsasour: 1.718 (exact scores for U.S. Virgin Islands-Barbados and Cayman Islands-Belize)
4. Dr. Gamera: 1.655 (exact score for Cayman Islands-Belize)
5. drt2k3: 1.591 (exact scores for Nicaragua-Anguilla and Cayman Islands-Belize)
Tied 6. jagum: 1.527
Tied 6. ioppolo: 1.527
8. italiancbr: 1.464 (exact scores for Bermuda-Bahamas and Anguilla-Nicaragua)
9. ChaChaFut: 1.400 (exact score for Anguilla-Nicaragua)
10. chec: 1.336 (exact score for Cayman Islands-Belize)
11. dinamo_zagreb: 1.145 (exact scores for Nicaragua-Anguilla and Anguilla-Nicaragua)
Tied 12. Outburstz: 0.955 (exact score for Curacao-Montserrat)
Tied 12. PaulieJay: 0.955
14. bartecky: 0.636 (plain score was 10 out of 32, he didn't predict every game)

The mean was 1.414. Nicaragua-Anguilla was the game with the best score predictions and part of the two leg series with the best score predictions. Dominia-British Virgin Islands and Barbados-U.S. Virgin Islands had everybody predict the result wrong. There were 18 exact scores out of 190 score predictions. Cayman Islands-Belize had 6 exact score predictions and the Nicaragua-Anguilla series had 3 exact score predictions for each game.

Here are the standings after Round 1 out of 4.2 points:

1. blacksun: 4.200 (perfect)
2. EvanJ: 3.882
3. Sebsasour: 3.818
4. Dr. Gamera: 3.755
5. drt2k3: 3.691
Tied 6. jagum: 3.627
Tied 6. ioppolo: 3.627
8. italiancbr: 3.564
9. ChaChaFut: 3.500
10. chec: 3.436
11. PaulieJay: 3.055
12. dinamo_zagreb: 2.945
13. Outburstz: 2.455
14. bartecky: 1.836 (he predicted 2.4 points worth of games and would rank 11th if I went by points earned/points attempted rather than points earned/points available)

The mean was 3.385.

Round 2 will be played in June and will be worth 8%.

 

You shouldn't speak for me about why this round is weighted low. The two factors are how many games the round has/had and that later rounds are worth more per game (the Semifinals and Hexagonal have standings predictions which the first three rounds don't), but that isn't because of me considering Round 1 to be based on luck. I admit the score predictions involve luck, but half of the round was predicting who advanced and almost all of those predictions were correct. For each round here is the percent the round is worth divided by the number of games, with higher numbers meaning each game is more important:

Round 1: 0.3%
Round 2: 0.4%
Round 3: 0.65%
Semifinals: 0.8(3 repeating)% = 5/6ths
Hexagonal: 1.(6 repeating)% = 1 2/3rds = 5/3rds

Here is the percent each round is worth:

Round 1: 4.2%
Round 2: 8%
Round 3: 7.8% (it is worth less than Round 2 because it has fewer games than Round 2)
Semifinals: 30%*
Hexagonal: 50%*

* Now that I'm looking at this I'm considering increasing the value of the Semifinals and decreasing the value of the Hexagonal. I will have this finalized by the time I started accepting predictions for the Semifinals.

 

I understand.