Even if you ignore the suburbs, there are a number of cities in the 100k-200k that have limited entertainment options that could probably support a small team.
I agree. I think the key here is 'identity'. I don't really know if Gatineau really views itself as something independent of Ottawa or Richmond to Vancouver or Halton to, well, a lot of things. So these would either be suburbs posing as the big city (e.g. Longueuil as some sort of Montreal team) or a suburb that is definitively distinct from its larger city (e.g. Windsor). But fans cling to the cultural identity of a team and that's not something suburbs are generally well known for.
There are already D3 teams in metro areas. CPL plans to occupy the top 3 tiers so I don't see why it can't happen. North York will be the home of York 9 for the first 3 years. That won't kill TFC or vice versa. The idea that only 1 teams fits in a 6.5M area is ridiculous. Mississauga and Brampton are big enough for their own clubs, same for Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke. Having the privilege to live in North York, people here identify way more with North York than Toronto, even more so for Scarborough and Etobicoke. That's just as true in Vancouver Metro where the city only accounts for ~675k over 2.7M people. It's a group of cities (not identifying themselves with Vancouver) that makes Metro Vancouver. Oakville already have a team currently competing in the Canadian Championship, same for Blainville who sold out in Laval, all part of Montreal Metro...so that kills your argument regarding that The CPL approach is both refreshing and it shows that they understand the current and future reality. But no need to argue D2 back and forth. The league wants to start it only as of 2026 and I only saw the whole thing personally happen post 2030. I get the league enthusiasm due to the strong ticket drive going on. Let's just say that the big Winnipeg stadium will have at the very minimum 10k per games at this rate. It's exceeding the league's expectations and strengthen their position for a potential TV deal.
Gatineau is a French city in Quebec while Ottawa is the English in Ontario. A Gatineau team would have all the francophones in the area flock to that team instead of Ottawa's. Quebec's nationalism...off the chart Richmond is just an entirely different city than Vancouver. They view themselves as Richmond, just like Surrey, Burnaby and Coquitlam does. Contrarily to what some may try to make believe, Oakville is far enough from BMO field to have it's own club and it's at the heart of a very populous and mostly wealthy area. Laval and Longueuil have became big cities, we just have to be careful to take it within the Canadian context and not compare with American cities. People in those cities across both rivers by Montreal identify with their city first. Their growth have been nothing short than spectacular due to the mandatory mergers in the 2000s across the Province. Gatineau, Longueuil, Quebec, Saguenay... mergers. Laval merged all it's cities in the 70s. That will be the challenge for some areas. York 9 have their work cut out for them to get the whole Region unified behind 1 club. I never thought they had much of an identity but the potential is there If they succeed. Halton and Durham will most likely be watching what happens there with great interest.
Who is bankrolling all these teams currently? You seem to be saying that since these Club teams currently exist it is obvious they will be viable professional or semi-professional teams going forward. Similar to hockey we can get a pro level and then semi-pro level in the same region, which seems fine. It will be a LONG time before we will see anything like that for soccer. Move a CPL team into Toronto and watch it get buried by MLS. I can't see the Valor setting up show in Winnipeg without negatively impacting WSA Winnipeg in the near future. I hope to be wrong but when the existing team has issues with attendance and recognition it isn't a given that it will survive a new team in it's area with outside funding and sustainability.
For cities in the 100 to 200 k range or for larger cities that are actually just part of a bigger metro area, they could support a small - i.e. D3 - team. By all means, let's have a solid L1O (or other regional league) that can be supported by attendances in the 1000 range. For D2, however, we need attendances of at least 5000. I see cities on that list that draw 3000 or 4000 (or less) for hockey teams that are very popular and well established. They are not going to suddenly draw 25% to 50% more than that for a D2 soccer team. That's not a slam, it's just acknowledging that they are D3 cities.
Well I did point out that D2 is a talk best saved for Post 2030 to let it take shape despite the league's intention to start in 2026. D3 already exists. The CSA wants to reform it into something resembling the current CHL, regional leagues with 2 of them already exist in Ontario and Quebec. So on that front, it's really status quo plus adding teams in the west and maritimes at D3 level to fully replicate the CHL. As for D1, the league said maximum 16. They have 22 applications on the table an some of them are more fitted for D2 than D1. Hypothetically, accepting all the applications across the top 2 tier means they would be short 10 teams. Nothing's for sure but it isn't unrealistic either. All I'm saying is that it's possible and early numbers are encouraging for the future. There was always money in Canada, it's just that until MLS came around, no one believed there was money to be made. This has change and corporate Canada is paying attention and buying in. It was actually Paul Beirne that brought them to the table as he was know to them since his TFC time. Well, North York will be home to York 9 so we'll see. I doubt TFC puts them out of business as there's more than enough people for more than 1 team. We're not talking 2 teams in Downtown Toronto, we're talking 1 by the lake and 1 by the northern city limits. They are far apart enough. Believe it or not, from North York or Scarborough to Exhibition is quite the trek by transit, let alone car. Those areas already have D3 anyhow. More than enough people for everyone. As for TFC, they best keep winning. That should just be their focus and not worry about CPL. Valour could use WSA as an affiliate and support them. That would actually help WSA Winnipeg, same was Foothills will be supported by Cavalry and same in Edmonton. Regardless, Valour was needed in that area and for the country as a whole.
North York, Scarborough, Etobicoke, Richmond, Burnaby, Laval, Longueuil, Montreal (Cotes-Des-Neiges or Downtown or Plateau) have enough population and money for D2 having lived in 2 out of 3 of those mega areas. All they need is ownership willing to invest in Tier 2 level infrastructure and what's needed for that level. That's how it is in Europe, no reason it can't work here. How do you know that 5k is needed? How do you know that Kingston can't attract 5000 people on a Saturday afternoon (virtually nothing else to do there) to watch their club play against Gatineau while pushing through to promote? As for D3 cities not being able to draw D2 crowds, it's not that simple. Infrastructure, ownership, facilities, marketing and the proper league structure... all of those matters. It's a no brainer that a league set up as CPL will attract more fans than USL playing in a league that's not on TV, not advertised anywhere, playing teams no one cares about and lack the attractive facilities to help push your marketing. That has way more to do with it then you just arbitrarily decide which city's D2 or D3. You're going by what you believe and what you've observed based on decades in USL and provincial leagues. I'm going back with demographics and current data from the CPL which points that the league might actually exceed their target on year 1 in attendance. Not claiming it's a slam dunk, but from what's been going on, we're heading in the right direction
So that we can discuss clearly: What do you see as D2 infrastructure and, especially, what do you see as the important differences between D1 and D2 national level leagues that would make D2 significantly less costly? (e.g. what specifically about D2 makes a city able to support that but not D1 given that both are national leagues). Three decades of watching which pro soccer teams survived in Canada and the US plus some basic math skills. Also the CPL itself has spoken of 6 to 7 k as the level it requires. Because I live here, am reasonably well connected in the soccer community, am familiar with recent attempts at high level soccer here, have a solid grasp of the relative popularity of soccer in the broader community, and realize that there are actually lots of other things to do here. Further, the CPL teams will need to average at least 5000 fans per game. Minimum. Long term. So, yes, rivalry games are great. A championship run (or promotion run) is great. What they need, however, is to average 5000 when they are three seasons in to a run of futility at the bottom of the table and have just been eliminated - again - with a month and a half left in the season. Get that and a market will be successful. Get 5000 only when times are good and the market will fail as soon as they aren't.
I don't mind Robert Borden's optimism, except when it outweighs other's opinions in his eyes. TFC outdrew the Leafs this year. Which would be a great argument for soccer in Canada. But the Reds attendance doesnt equal soccer attendance. The Leafs can suck and still draw in Toronto. The same can't be said in other cities though. He is right on putting off the conversation abut D2 until much much later, but he really isn't doing that. If I do not believe that WSA Winnipeg drawing 200 people in a 2000 seat stadium doesn't mean success for the Valour, I have to prove that it wont happen. Hopefully it will. But it isnt a given.
I wish that I worked for the league but that's not my place to say. You might be right with the 5k figure if CPL aims for over 10k by 2026. I guess that makes sense. There were talks of a "pyramidal revenue sharing structure". In the context of Canada (population vs distance) I'm hoping the league finds a creative way to ensure that this happens. Where CPL isn't worried about travel costs, that's a definite challenge for D2. I can't answer that, I'm betting the league is betting on getting to the point of being big enough to be able to negotiate deals for D2 as well. You know Kingston better than I do, so is it a D3 city? I know both Montreal and Toronto very well, both areas can support multiple clubs across divisions.
Valour FC is looking solid. I hope they do well and support WSA Winnipeg by providing a better pathway to local talents
The World Will Know Us. #United2026 #CanPL pic.twitter.com/Kx76HClYpn— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) June 13, 2018 This is a HUGE win for CPL. 2026 was always a very important date for the CSA when Montagliani started the project and announced his intention to submit a solo Canadian bid. It starts to make sense on why CPL have sped up the timeline for a D2 national league in 2026. For the next 8 years, CPL 1.0 will grow and peg their marketing to the upcoming world cup. I think 2026 will be CPL 2.0 and the launch of a D2 during the peak of anything soccer in the country. That's a massive help to the league and more casuals will most likely be that much more drawn to the league, same as potential investors & sponsors.
While I agree that hosting the 2026 World Cup will be huge for soccer in Canada. This pretty much kills Canada's hopes of a solo bid for at least a generation. No one is going to vote for a Canadian solo bid given that they just hosted a World Cup. At a minimum, there is going to be a CAF, UEFA, AFC, and probably a CONMEBOL host before another CONCACAF bid is seriously considered.
I do not believe Canada had any shot at a solo bid. But I also do not think the US or Mexico did either. To me CONCACAF is more of an afterthought. By giving us 2026 as United FIFA has an excuse to ignore CONCACAF for awhile, even if they give UEFA 3 Cups in that time.
My predictions: 2026: CONCACAF - North America 2030: CONMEBOL - Uruguay - Arentina (100th Anniversary) 2034: United Kingdom or England 2038: China 2042: Africa (Morocco? 6th time's a charm?) 2046: CONCACAF ? Who knows how the continent will look like in 30 years. I don't know. I just don't think that next time we'll see a United bid split 60-10-10. It would have to be more even or I wouldn't rule out some nations trying solo again.
Canada could do solo when it was a 32 team tournament. That was the intent and it's not like we can't do better than Qatar. When it got expanded to 48 teams, we were done. The CSA was not prepared for this. Could we do 2026 solo? Absolutely not. 30 years from now? I don't know, maybe but I won't say it's impossible
Canada doesn't have the bankroll that Qatar has.. Even with a 32-team tournament, I'm not sure Canada would have been willing to sink as much money as would be required to upgrade their current stadiums to host a men's World Cup..
Canada's the world's 10th economy. It was always coming down to political will, not resources or money. As for sinking cash on existing stadiums, Quebec is about to do it for the Olympic Stadium (complete modernization + new roof structure), BC did with Rogers Place for the Winter Olympics. The Jays are about to do something with Rogers Centre. Governments dislike doing this for private businesses/teams but for major events such as Olympics & World Cups, precedents suggests otherwise. I can't predict the future but again, not impossible. CPL helps with the fact that more infrastructure will be built over the decades... so who knows
Sorry if I was unclear with my post, you and I have discussed the idea of being capable of before and I wasnt trying to re-hash that. This post was more along the lines of FIFA having no interest in Canada, the US or Mexico hosting. But with the United bid they can get CONCACAF out of the way for a long while...I'm not sure any of us will be alive the next time CONCACAF will host after 2026.
Canada's economy doesn't have much to do with it. Canada actually spends their income on their residents. Qatar, on the other hand, lines the pockets of their royalty and, for the most part, doesn't drop a dime on non-citizens. BC and Alberta just opted out of the United bid over FIFA's requirements. Edmonton powered ahead on their own, but if BC and Alberta don't change their minds (and I doubt they will if FIFA doesn't drop some of their requirements), but any bid that doesn't include Vancouver is likely going to fail.
I'm not sure where you get that, the '94 WC is still the highest attendance of any World Cup. Now maybe the U.S. offers fewer opportunities for graft (pretty sure there are still a lot of opportunities, though!), but that would also rule out most of Europe, as well. I have a hard time imagining that FIFA would not seriously consider the USA as a host anytime North America is up for consideration. And in 2026, the statute of limitations on the DOJ cases against half of FIFA might have expired!
Ok... some inaccuracies in your statement but you won't drag me in a back and forth on Canadian politics which I doubt you fully understand. Oh and all the stadiums (Olympic Stadium, Commonwealth & Rogers Place) are owned by their respective provincial governments. BMO Field is owned by the City of Toronto... but yeah, governments only spends on their "residents"in these parts...if only that was actually true... Well Chicago and another one dropped out too...right? That's a problem with the United Bid, they declared the 60-10-10 formula. Technically, FIFA has the last say on which games goes where and how many goes where, not the bid committee. So the governments only knew the number "10" and had to make a lot of assumptions based on that. That's a lot of asks for just 1 or 2 games (MTL-TOR was always going to get more) with no guarantees, no numbers and no clarifications on questions asked by the respective provincial governments to FIFA, all they got was "Sign here". More games strengthens the business case (yes we're guilty of doing that in public service). A 40-20-20 would have already clarified the picture a bit. But 10 games split between potentially 4 venues at that time complicated matters. Everyone is happy for the United bid here however, governments aren't stupid either. The 60-10-10 formula is perceived as an American bid with some participation from Mexico and Canada. While the previous 2026 solo bid had support, (no one said "no thank you"), BC and Alberta dropped out of this one. It's not accurate to speculate that BC and Alberta wouldn't support a bid with more games at their venues which I think came down to that... made little sense on paper for them.