As linked to in the CONCACAF forum, CONCACAF has diagramed their qualifying format, which will not involve random draws. A Dominican Republic website made an assumption that is not confirmed or contradicted by the diagram. The assumption is that matchups will be top team in Pot H vs. top team in Pot I, second best team in Pot H vs. second best team in Pot I, etc. This is at least somewhat fair for the first three rounds where two countries play each other, but would be unfair if used in the Semifinals because one Semifinal group would have the best and fourth best teams, another group would have the second best and fifth best teams, and another group would have the third best and sixth best teams. If the assumption is true, here is Canada's path: There are five rounds (three before the Semifinals) and Canada starts in Round 2 against the winner of Barbados and Cayman Islands, who both start in Round 1. There are nine pots (A through I) with varying amounts of teams and Canada is in Pot D, which is the only pot with only one team. If Canada advances to Round 3, they will face the winner of Grenada and Puerto Rico, who both start in Round 2. If Canada advances to Round 4 (the Semifinals), they will face USA, Trinidad and Tobago, and one of Suriname, Guatemala, Bermuda, Nicaragua, British Virgin Islands, or Anguilla. It would be a surprise if that spot in Round 4 was won by anybody other than Suriname or Guatemala. If the group is USA, Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, and Guatemala, I would expect USA to win the group easily with the other three possibly having a close battle for second. Schedule: Round 1 in March 2015 Round 2 in June 2015 Round 3 in September 2015 Round 4 in November 2015, March 2016, and September 2016 Hexagonal starting in November 2016 @Polygong Please sticky this topic. Do you think individual qualifiers get enough posts to need their own topics or should it all go in here? Edit: Done. Poly.
I noticed that there was a single thread for the 2014 qualifiers so I think everything could go in here. Although, I'll leave it to others to make that decision.
fridge46 thinks the matchups will be done differently than what I posted. If fridge46 is right: In Round 2, Canada would face the winner of Barbados and US Virgin Islands (I previously said Barbados and Cayman Islands). Either way, Canada should advance. In Round 3, Canada would face the winner of Grenada and Antigua and Barbuda (I previously said Grenada and Puerto Rico). Antigua and Barbuda has moved up the FIFA Rankings since the rankings used to order the teams. If Antigua and Barbuda plays as well in qualifying for World Cup 2018 as they did for World Cup 2014, they could beat Canada.
No way A&B gets passed Canada they weren't that special last time around Haiti just struggled making them look better than they were. Now that the Barracuda team has dissolved they look worse. Canada should have no problems making it to the semifinal
jagum, I assumed that Semifinal Group 3 would have the third team from Pot A and the third team from Pot B. After reading that it would have the third team from Pot A and the first team from Pot B, that would group Canada with USA and Honduras. Unfortunately there are no details from CONCACAF. I want to start a prediction contest for qualifying.
Hello, not much of a Canadian soccer follower here but I've noticed that you guys have been discussing qualification here. What would you say are Canada's chances of making it through to the hex?
For 2018 I think we're not looking so great. A number of our top players are aging and into their 30s. We do have some excellent young talent, but they're very young and I don't think will be ready to step it up in time. We do have a few decent players in the mid-late 20s range, but not enough. Benito Floro though is the most promising manager we've had in a very long time. I think that we stand a chance, but not a good one. Mexico and the USA are certain to go through, Costa Rica, Panama and Honduras are all extremely likely to go as well. That leaves us in heavy competition for the final spot with the likes of Jamaica, T&T, and El Salvador, possibly even Cuba. That said, we'll be much much stronger when qualification for 2022 comes around.
2018 is very odd. like others have said the talent is split betwwen the old guard in their late 20's and early 30's who trained and developed in europe, and the new group in their late teens and early 20's who are mostly products of MLS. There's a big gap in between, mainly with the exception of REB. So 2018 is a bit of a wildcard. if the old guys can still step up, and the kids graduate, then I think HEX is a very strong possibility. But we don't have too much room for error. If players start fading, we're screwed. But seeing Henry go to west Ham, is a great sign. if others can follow that trajectory I think 2018 is seriously viable.
Randy Edwin Bonsu. 24 years old. Plays in the German 3rd division. But on the question of our chances, we are pretty much guaranteed to pass the first 3 rounds. Everything we've done in the last 6 months suggests canada can beat the minnows. The real challenge is round 4, with Panama, Trinidad or Honduras. If we are as consistent as the last few matches have shown, we can qualify past this group. It really depends on the draw(Trinidad is much easier than Honduras) But it's no sure thing at all for sure.
I dont think that CONCACAF will have match-ups set up directly by seeding at all. For those who havent seen the proposed format, its here (hopefully you can click to enlarge): I am assuming your mention of top seed v low seed is in reference to what I posted here? In which case I think you have taken what I have said too literally. I believe there will be a draw for each round, but one that is highly restrictive (ie not your traditional any seed drawn against any unseed). I will refer back to my diagram: So for each round, the dark red seeds are paired against a light red unseed (ok, looks more pink); and a dark blue seed is paired with a light blue unseed - randomly. Lets take Canada. In round 2, instead of being able to face anyone from the light red/blue pots, they will only be drawn against a light red team/winner - not specifically Barbados, Cayman, whoever. Canada will be drawn against any 14 of the teams listed in Round 1 (Pots H & I) Having specific matchups based on seedings is not something I believe CONCACAF/FIFA will do. Do you have a link the Dom. Rep. site that assumed that the "draw" will not be random? I have difficulty believing that is the case, as this has never happened WC qualifying as far as I am aware. For round 3, Canada will be drawn against any team that is blue in round 2. Namely - VIN, LCA, GRN, ATG, GUY or PUR (Pots F & G). And as such, avoid the likes of CUB, ARU, DOM, SLV, SUR and GUA (Pot E). Then for round 4 (semi finals) they will play one team from each of the following Pots - A: CRC, MEX, USA; B: HON, PAN, TRI; Pot D: CUB, ARU, DOM, or teams that have beaten said teams in previous rounds. NOT specifically USA, TRI or DOM. The more I look at the proposed format, the more I think that the pots will change. Mainly because the top 2 seeds in pot E (teams ranked #10 and #11) could play each other in round 3, whilst teams ranked #14 and #15 could be paired. Any format where a lower seed could progress further than a higher seed is bullsh*t!
I don't agree with your conclusion. The decision to use August 2014 rankings was clearly deliberate, despite the fact that even then it was problematic. I can't see them going back now. Those pots are final. It's just a question of who draws who, and i'm pretty sure the draws will be fully random (within the bounds of CONCACAF corruption) And as far as i'm concerned it all comes down to the 4th round. I'm not worrying about winning rounds 2 and 3, given the probable opposition. There are only 2 key facts here: -We're going to be in a 4 team group with a A, a B and a E team(or weaker, if we're lucky). -We need to come in 2nd to advance. Does anyone know when the Draw will happen? The first rounds is in late March, so It's in the next couple months i'd imagine.
About what I put in bold, Canada is the best team that starts in Round 2, so shouldn't they be in pairing 2.1. This matters because Winner 2.1 plays Winner 2.8, 2.9, or 2.10, whereas Winners 2.2 through 2.7 play each other.
Looking at the diagram from CONCACAF, it doesn't look like there needs to be a draw for Round 3. The way they have that bracket set up, it's easy for fans to follow which I think is the point. From Canada's perspective, we will know ahead of time who our Round 3 opponent will be once the Round 2 draw is done.
My take on it: we'll all but surely make Round 4, and our best hope to make it to the hex is if we get in the same group as Trinidad. They're not so easy, but I think far easier than Honduras or Panama.
Well, we did pretty well vs Panama last month, and given our youth I'd hope we improve by the time round 4 comes along, so I'm not too pessimistic about playing them either. Honduras though... The memories will never fade...
Damn it! You had to bring it up... But yes, I do agree that we can deal with Panama. I mean we beat them at home last time around, so now we'd have to get something from them in Panama.
I see what you guys are saying re Panama, but for some reason we struggle big time when we play just about any Central American team in their own country. Our players seem to get easily intimidated by their fans. The recent friendly in Panama was horrible, on both sides. I wouldn't use it as an example of what we're like head to head with them. I think we all agree that we could beat Panama, and even beat Honduras, but T&T would be the easiest of those three to go up against.
Well, a serious issue we used to have is defensive lapses, and the game that makes me most optimistic is Columbia. We went 90mins against one of the most potent offenses in the world and only gave up a James Golazo. Bodes well. Also, the 4th round is a 4 team round robin. We play better at home and weird stuff always happens that shakes things up.
We can't score goals. You can teach to defend, and we have a swath of young defended-minded players, but Canada hasn't had a reliable goalscorer in forever. Right now we're looking at Ricketts and Jackson as our primary forwards, who have a combined 13 goals in 77 caps, including 6 goals in the minnow round last time around!
True enough, but what are we supposed to do about that? It's a weakness we have to coach around, until the talent catches back up. I'd like to hope the 2 upcoming Iceland games might give us an idea of what we have to work with, I feel like neither Panama nor Columbia were representative, and Jamaica could have been a fluke.
I would actually put Jackson out at RM and Randy Edwini-Bonsu up front. I've seen Jackson play RM before and I think he does quite well there.