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Discussion in 'Elections' started by Rostam, May 27, 2009.
You have a chance right here, right now, at Bigsoccer, to influence the Iranian elections.
I am still undecided between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi so I can't participate in this poll yet, until I make up my mind.
Mousavi or Karroubi. I am leaning toward Mousavi for tactical reasons, but Karoubi is the candidate with the best ideas.
I don't know if Karoubi has the best ideas, but he has made the most daring promises. And his choice of Karbaschi as his VP, and the latter's endorsement of Karroubi, will gain Karoubi some support among progressives in Iran. However, the most significant impact of Karoubi IMO will be his ability to take some of the votes away from Ahmadinejad in rural areas of Iran, where Mousavi is quite weak. If that happens, then Ahmadinejad will have little chance of hitting above the 50% mark needed to win the election in the first round.
'The Government is handing out 400,000 tonnes of free spuds in rural towns. It says that it is merely distributing the surplus from a bumper crop, but Mr Ahmadinejad’s opponents accuse it of bribing the poor. “Death to potatoes,” they chant at rallies.'
i wonder what he'll use for a bribe to get votes here?
Are you being facetious?
My view on who would make a better president for Iran is influenced by the following factors:
1) Is the US ready to enter into a deal with Iran on the issues that separate Iran and the US, recognizing that regardless of who is elected president, the fundamental tenents of Iran's policies on the nuclear issue and with respect to Israel are not going to change? If the answer is yes, then it would be better for Iran to elect a different interluctor for any such dialogue with the US in light of the fact that the US/Israel has spent 4 years trying to ruin Ahmadinejad's image and his election will make any successful dialogue politically more difficult in US. If not, and if those who oppose any such dialogue in the first place and would surely oppose any deals that can be arrived at as a result are powerful enough to prevent any such deals, then its best for Iran not to allow the US/Israel the ability to play "divide and conquer" to try to create internal rifts between the president and the top leadership as a means of throwing the country into chaos and disorder in order to force their demands on Iran regardless of the costs.
2) On other issues, much (not all) of the criticisms of Ahmadinejad are politically inspired and not necessarily based in fact. On social issues, Ahmadinejad himself is not anywhere close to being as conservative as the fundamentalist camp might appear and because of his good relationship with that camp, he has more influence on them to contain their excesses. (On the other hand, when the president is from another camp, his opponents might try to use these kind of issues as a wedge to undermine him, in the process actually reducing and creating greater uncertainty in this area.) On economic issues, fundamentally, the major problems Iran has faced have little to do with Ahamdinejad's policies. In a nutshell, Iran has imported a lot of inflation caused by higher oil prices and sanctions causing higher import prices. On management issues, there is some truth that Ahmadinejad has appointed a lot of inexperienced and often incompetent figures to various positions, but there is also a greater truth: that much of the truly competent base for management had been driven off over several decades, with a small leftover crowd which had become almost like a "mafia" within the various overgrown bucreaucies in Iran. Breaking up their power is to me of greater urgency than retaining their "experience", as that would be the first step towards Iran being able to move into the direction of a private economy as opposed to one either dominated by the state or one that is suffering from "crony capitalism".
3) I personally consider Ahmadinejad religious, but more than religious, a genuine nationalist. Indeed, the latter is the driving force behind much of his actions and rhetoric. While I like some of the Khatami like symbols that Mousavi's campaign has adopted on social and civil liberty type issues, I know that I am not a fan of state susidies, coupons, and leftist economic policies, nor a fan of the "old management" and "managers" that Iran had either (less if they are to have monopolist control of things). On the range of economic and management issues, I need to know a lot more about what Mousavi has in mind before I can feel comfortable with him.
If Ahmadinejad was a nationalist, he and his camp would not be inciting ethnic tension and undermining national unity , by distributing Khatami's "joke video clip" in certain regions in order to gain some petty political capital. If Ahmadinejad was a nationalist, he would not put Arab Palestinians' interest ahead of Iranians' national interests. If Ahmadinejad was a nationalist, he would not be emboldening and uniting Iran's enemies by opening his big mouth, and creating sound-bites for those who seek to weaken, divide and conquer Iran.
While I definitely disagree with your characterization of some of these issues, and how they relate to nationalist sentiments, I don't see any point in dragging the issue for now. As I have said, I am still undecided on who to support in this election, even if my doubts on the issue are not so much based on what is widely said and reported about Ahmadinejad.
From my vantage point, Ahmadinejad's biggest strength and weakness is that he is a bit too stubborn. Otherwise, the fact that his image is what it is has much more to do with a concerted campaign to isolate Iran and turn it into a pariah than anything else.
IM, I have had my difference of opinion with you in the past but never have I been so disappointed in seeing you selectively pick and choose the facts as they have happened. You made 3 points:
First point highlighting foreign policy issues and concentrating quite a lot on the matter.
Second issue includes social, economic and management!!! The fact that you chose to bundle these three together whereas dedicated the whole of the first point to foreign policy I shall expand on in a moment.
Third point is more a criticism of Mousavi than anything else although it is a confusing bag of beans.
1. The most important issue for discussion in my view is the issue of economics in Iran. Which is why I was disappointed to see you shy away from such a discussion almost entirely by glossing over the issue saying it really isn't AN's fault! All analysts, whether state analysts or independents disagree with you on the matter. Here is a set of youtube clips which make the point quite succintly. If you see these with a neutral view and still think he has done a good job economically, you must be AN himself. Not even his own mother would go so far anymore!
تک تک آمارهایی که می بینید از وب سایت بانک مرکزی دولت نهم استخراج شده است.
شعارها و آمارها:
8 - ذخیره ارزی:
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1y8BUhohCg"]YouTube - ?????? ??????? - 8 - ????? ????‎[/ame]
7 - اشتغال و پول نفت
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=737kJK09Azg"]YouTube - ?????? ? ?????? - 7 - ?????? ? ??? ???‎[/ame]
6 - قیمت مسکن در شش سال گذشت
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2D1gdFlzBak"]YouTube - ?????? ? ?????? - 6 - ???? ???? ?? ?? ??? ?????‎[/ame]
5 - درآمد نفتی و واردات کالاهای خارجی
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20EqeKIi02c"]YouTube - ?????? ? ?????? - 5 - ????? ???? ? ?????? ??????? ?????‎[/ame]
4 - کسری بودجه دولت های پس از انقلاب
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLPopDzzb6A"]YouTube - ?????? ? ?????? - 4 - ???? ????? ???? ??? ?? ?? ??????‎[/ame]
3 - درآمد ساليانه نفتي در 30 سال گذشته
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcmuXy9UPys"]YouTube - ?????? ? ?????? - 3 - ????? ??????? ???? ?? 30 ??? ?????‎[/ame]
2 - درآمدهای نفتی سه دولت قبل
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZ2Vurt6uYI"]YouTube - ?????? ? ?????? - 2 - ???????? ???? ?? ???? ???‎[/ame]
1- نمودار تورم در 16 سال گذشته
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsXQWLY1yrw"]YouTube - ?????? ? ?????? - 1- ?????? ???? ?? 16 ??? ?????‎[/ame]
As for management and selection of those around him you really don't fault him? Selecting a bunch of inexperienced, incompetent liars? Kordan was just the one that became too public to deny and unfortunately I don't have the time to go through each one and explain why they have been possibly the worst in Iran's 3000 year history. Fatahali Shah was more competent and less of a liar. For the time being here is a list of quotes to show what stupid things AN and his people have been saying over the last 4 years (some funny, some outrageous lies):
با حذف قیمت زمین ، بهای خانه نصف می**شود!
فرار مغزها و سرمایه**ها نداریم، هر کس آزاد است هر کجا که خواست زندگی کند!
امارات اگر پیشرفت کند، انگار ما پیشرفت کرده**ایم!
بر خلاف نظر بقیه ، من معتقدم زنان گیلانی در کنار کار و تلاش روزانه ، حریم عفاف و ناموس خود را هم حفظ می**کنند!!!
مردم از شنیدن اسم دموکراسی حالت تهوع می**گیرند!
بر خلاف دولت**های قبلی ما در انتخابات شوراها ، بی**طرف عمل کردیم!
این که می گویند دو تا بچه کافیه ، بنده معتقد نیستم . کشور ما برای صد و بیست میلیون نفر جا دارد!
۴۲ روزنامه علیه دولت می**نویسند!
یک زن (اشاره به فاطمه رجبی) پیدا شده که مردانه حرف می**زند ، آن وقت شما بهش ایراد می**گیرید؟
در کشور ما طی این دو ساله معجزه**ی اقتصادی رخ داده!
گوجه**فرنگی ۳۵۰۰ تومان نیست ، بغل خانه**ی ما ۱۲۰۰ تومان است!
رشد تورم ۲۳ درصدی (گفته**ی مرکز پژوهش**های مجلس) دروغ است ، تورم ۱۳ درصد است!
من نگفتم نفت را سر سفره**ها می آورم!!
+ در سخنرانی من در مجمع عمومی سازمان ملل، يک نفر گفت که فلانی، يک هاله ای از نور صورت تو را فرا گرفته بود!
امروز همه به اين واقعيت معتقدند که در حال حاضر کشور را امام زمان مديريت می کند.
بعضی افراد بی ايمان می گويند که ما در هيات دولت، يک صندلی برای آقا خالی می گذاريم، در حالی که اگر آقا به هيأت دولت بيايد که تنها نمی آيند! با يارانشان تشريف می آورند!
ميانگين سن دانشمندان هسته ی ما، 17 سال است!
يک دختر 15 ساله در شيراز توانسته است در زيرزمين خانه شان، اورانيوم را غنی کند!
با چاقوی زنجان، دشمنان اين مملکت را به دو نيم می کنيم!
آقای مشايی مظلوم واقع شدند! ايشان هيچ گاه نگفتند ما با ملت اسرائيل دوست هستيم! (بلکه ايشان گفتند ما با مردم اسرائيل دوست هستيم!)
روشنفکران، به اندازه ی بزغاله هم نمی فهمند!
سران کشورهای دنيا برای نزديکی با کشور ما صف کشيده اند، مثل اين پيرزن ها که در صف زنبيل می گذارند!
(در کنفرانسی در آمريکا فرمودندمن می خواهم يکی دو نکته بگويم، وان، تو پوينت!
آقای کردان مظلوم واقع شدند و استيضاح ايشان غيرقانونی است!
50 درصد جابه جايی ها در تهران، می تواند با منوريل انجام شود!
هرگز نمی گذارند که اوباما رئيس جمهور آمريکا شود!
بهای کنونی نفت(150دلار در سال86) بسيار پايين است و من پيش بينی می کنم که نفت به 200 دلار هم برسد!
من به آقای علی آبادی گفتم که خودت با قدرت وارد فوتبال شو و فدراسيون فوتبال را اداره کن!
عده ای می گويند که بازار آزاد همه چيز را حل می کند، ولی من به شما می گويم که بازار آزاد برای دزدها و سارق هاست!
روز بسيج، نقطه ی عطف تاريخ بشريت است!
+اسفنديار مشايی(رئيس سازمان ميراث فرهنگی)
مردم ايران با مردم اسرائيل و آمريکا دوست هستند.
مردم آمريکا از بهترين مردم های جهان هستند!
امروزه ديگر نمی توان با دين جهان را اداره نمود و دوران حکومت دين بر جهان به پايان رسيده است!
+محمد علی آبادی (رئيس سازمان تربيت بدنی)
من خودم ديدم که نامجو مطلق توپ را استپ کرد و توپ افتاد جلوی پای اسمائيل مطر!(نامجو مطلق 15 سال قبل از اين که "مطر" فوتبال خود را شروع کند، از فوتبال خداحافظی نموده بود!)
مردم در سفرهای استانی به ما فشار می آورند که ليگ فوتبال را 30 تيمی کنيم!
عملکرد برنامه ی "نود" بر ضد نظام جمهوری اسلامی است!
در المپيک پکن، موفق بوديم!
نام تيم پرسپوليس بايد به پيروزی تغيير داده شود، همان طور که مردم در انقلاب شعار می دادند: استقلال، پيروزی، جمهوری اسلامی!
(همچنين محمد دادکان، يادداشتی را به خبرنگاران نشان داده بود که محمد علی آبادی، با خط خودش، تيم ملی را با 12 نفر، ارنج کرده بود!)
+فاطمه رجبی (همسر سخنگوی دولت):
احمدی نژاد معجزه ی هزاره ی سوم است!
غلامحسين الهام (سخنگوی دولت) :
مردم این بار در بحث مذاکره با آمریکا اعتراض نمی**کنند ، چون بر خلاف دولت**های دیگر به دولت نهم اعتماد دارند!
+خبر برکناری وزيران اقتصاد و کشور، دروغ سيزده است که رسانه ها ساخته اند!
دولت مخالف طرح امنيت اجتماعی است!
"نفت" بو می دهد و نمی توان آن را سر سفره های مردم آورد!
عبدالرضا مصری (وزیر رفاه) :
جلسات کمیسیون رفاه اجتماعی به خاطر نبود موضوع جلسه تشکیل نشده است! (یعنی خدا را شکر همه چیز در امن و امان است و همه در رفاه کامل به سر می**برند!)
+(در مراسم تقدير از بازنشستگان از نمايندگان مجلس، هنگامی که عده ايی از افزايش قيمت ها صحبت کردند و به عنوان مثال گرانی تخم مرغ را ذکر نمودند، ايشان فرمودندعجيب است که اين روزها همه تخم مرغ خور شده اند!
اعلام خط فقر به چه درد می خورد. اين که به مردم بگوييم اگر 300 هزار تومن حقوق بگيريد، فقير هستيد، به جز آن که از نظر روانی برای آن ها مساله ايجاد می کند، چه فايده ای دارد؟
+کردان(وزير برکنار شده کشور):
(خطاب به دانشجويان در کلاس): اين طور درس خواندن شما فايده ای ندارد، بايد می بوديد و می ديديد که ما در دانشگاه آکسفورد چگونه درس می خوانديم!
(در روز استيضاح): شهيد بهشتی هم مانند بنده، همواره مورد اتهام و دورغ پردازی دشمنان بود!
اين استيضاح باعث شاد شدن راديوهای اسرائيل و آمريکا می شود!
Once I find the time, I will also make a post about why AN's foreign policy will be a disaster too. The one thing that I did not much fault him was in fact his foreign policy when Bush was in power, but with Obama, AN will be a disaster.
Sorry to the English only speakers here, it would be impossible to find some of this information in English and translating some would be a national embarassment! AN has said things which rival those of George Bush, fortunately most don't understand them or give as much air time to them!! The basic point that this entire post is making is vote for anyone but Ahmadinejad. He wrecked the country for 4 years and if he is elected for another 4 years, it may take 50 years to undo the damage he has done.
And Ahmadinejad is an asset to the perpetrators of that concerted campaign...just look at that list of quotes posted by Bob, the guy is a dishonest, incompetent and shameless demagogue, he is an idiot.
It's beyond me how someone with your intellectual capacity, would choose Ahmadinejad over Moussavi.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4I9yDFnpgQ"]YouTube - Mir-Hossein Mousavi election campaign in Isfahan[/ame]
!Bob and Mani,
Lets keep the debate you are both inviting to when and if I have finally decided that I want to support Ahmadinejad. At that time, I will address the issues you raise in detail. But for now, just accept that I am undecided for the reasons I mentioned, not that those reasons are ones that should leave you or anyone else undecided.
Btw, you (!Bob) misread my comment about his appointments in management area, since I admited his appointees were often incompetent. I just saw a silver lining in breaking the monopolistic control of the old guard, even if I certainly don't find his own appointments as being often to his credit.
Btw, after the elections, one of these candidates, either Ahmadinejad, or Mousavi, or perhaps even Karrubi (and much less likely Rezaie) will end up as the winner. I will personally congratulate the winner and hope he will do well by our country. I am not a fan of making the atmosphere in elections so poisonous and partisan that it becomes impossible for the country to work together.
The latter is particular true from my perspective as long as I don't read reports that suggest that Iran may still face some tough times and challenges ahead from those who wish it ill. Once the issues become purely internal, the weight I give to various considerations may change as well.
Just the mere fact that you would consider AN is puzzling to me. Mousavi on the other hand has a proven track record, and seems to be the leading candidate to win this. If I could vote, I certainly would vote for him.
Its funny how you would use words like nationalistic to decide between the two, when Mousavi, on that account dwarfs AN.
IMO i don't think anyone can achieve major changes both in domestic and foreign policies at this moment.
It will probably take another decade until we see Iran as a contributing nation to the global society. Even if Ahmadinejad didn't give out soundbites at this time many of Iran's opposing nations would still try to weaken it and put sanctions.
Remember when Khatami helped US in 2001 to take over taliban? You think US was going to change its position towards Iran based on that action?
Ahmadinejad is another story. He approaches his job as if he's carrying out the work of god.......and his policies had some good and bad results. The good is that during his presidency we saw significant changes in Iran's science and technology fields as well a stronger trading ties with China.......on the other hand we saw Iran become in total isolation from the western nations.
Whilst the old guard argument may have been true even until the end of Rafsanjani's 8 years, you really cannot say that Khatami and his people were part of the same old guard? Any valid changes that could have been made within the government (i.e. excluding the other 2 branches and the media) were made. In any case, that is a minor point.
The main issue I wish to address is my surprise at some intelligent people with all the available information still picking AN. Whilst in the minority in the UK, I am very surprised that they exist at all. My message to them has been if you want to support a candidate to the right, support Rezai (unfortunately, I suspect the reason for their support is in the knowledge that Rezai hasn't much of a chance of winning).
AN has lied too often, selected poor people too often, misjudged issues and said the wrong thing too often, and worst of all, he has mismanaged the economy far too often. He didn't deliver on his 2 main campaign promises; my apologies, not that he didn't deliver; that may imply that he did something to achieve those promises, he didn't do ANYTHING. His main 2 platforms were:
1. stamp out corruption. Not a single person faced corruption charges. There are plenty of cases put on hold and plenty more I am sure started and were put on hold! One person made some very powerful and public allegations of these cases; and he is the only one behind bars right now. I hope anyone familiar with Iranian politics has read his allegations.
2. Equality for the poor - his so called: bringing oil onto the people's "table cloth" (sofreh). The poor are doing far worse than when he started out and this is despite record oil prices. Sure a few thousand received suitcases of cash on his provincial visits, but anyone with half a brain would question those and how he was a) buying votes and b) the level of corruption and masses of monies that disappeared! The eventual comment on the matter was, why have oil on your table alongside your food - oil stinks.
IM, the reason for my being upset with you despite you not supporting AN yet is quite simple. Not making your decision yet is logical, I have not made up my mind yet, however, I don't see there being a choice of 4 candidates: I see 3 candidates and to put it mildly, a lying, corrupt, incompetent scumbag who has taken people for fools. If I told you what would you like for food for the dinner party in a month's time and I will be having 1) a fish dish, 2) a chicken, 3) a meat dish, and 4) some garbage; a reasonable person would say I will need to know what each dish is and what they have in them etc. No reasonable person would pick the garbage. The fact that you consider AN to be a viable candidate despite his piss poor policies which enough analysis have gone into over the last 4 years is an affront to common sense. You may think I am simplifying the options and caricaturising AN's presidency, but it has been that bad. It really has been.
Here's is an oldie but goldie:
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzwTiVKhsMk"]YouTube - Ahmadi Nejad and Nuclear Energy in Kitchen!!![/ame]
And let's not forgot his "haleyeh noor" speech which was taped on someone's phone and put on youtube about 2 weeks after it was made. Ahmadinejad's response? Flat out denial or ever saying such a thing the next day.
With Oil prices sky rocketing, and China in its boom years, the trade relations between Iran and China had less to do with AN than one may think.
All over Tehran, the streets are plastered with Mousavi's pictures and campaign material. Karrubi also has a lot of signs, but there is virtually no sign that Ahmadinejad is running for reelection.
While only a few weeks ago I would have put my money on Ahmadinejad winning reelection, I have to admit the race has become unpredictable and there is a good chance Mousavi might end up as the winner. At least, that is the sense you get in Tehran, and decidedly so in north and central Tehran, where it is almost as if Mousavi and Karrubi are the only candidates in this race.
For the sake of those of us not acquainted with the gentlemen running for office can you give us a brief rundown on each? Moderate, conservative, liberal, etc. I understand that Ahmadinejad is the hard right candidate but how about the others?
I have been posting news items/video clips/photos/editorials etc about the election and the candidates here, in case anyone is interested.
Greatest Iran thread ever. Seriously. Watching you debate the leaders and direction of your country is much more interesting than all the gnashing of teeth about Jews and PTO boats.
The way I see it, Obama has made three concessions: 1) He's recognized Iran's right to nuclear energy; 2) He's taken a hard line against expansion of Israeli settlements; and most importantly 3) He's invited you guys to our 4th of July barbecues.
Now it's time for Iran to bring something to the table, which means you need a conciliator as the new Prez. Ahmadinejad ain't that.
The profile of Mir Hossein Mousavi ( In English)
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXliqC5_N88"]YouTube - Mir Hossein Mousavi[/ame]
Reformist rival: Ahmadinejad 'downgraded' Iran
Ahmadinejad's rival Mousavi attacks him in Iran TV debate
Artists lend voice to poll candidates
Moussavi feels sorry for Iranians because of Ahmadinejad
Rival: Ahmadinejad moves Iran toward dictatorship