Have to think winning the BE these days is easier for Georgetown and Marquette than before. The days of the conference being legit have gone since the mass exodus. Will be touch for the schools to make major roads nationally and it may be up to Georgetown and depaul to keep up the reputation of the league
I have to disagree. I feel the conference is significantly deeper than just G-town and Marquette as evidenced by Butler winning the tourney and SJ winning the league last year. Throw in DePaul, and a resurgent Providence and I think this league is up for grabs and is deeper than you think. I will say 4 teams are tournament teams this year. Time will tell.
I agree that there are other good teams but go back 5 years and you had Notre Dame, Rutgers, and WVU. I think it would be a lot harder for Marquette and Georgetown to win the conference with these programs still in the conference.
To reinforce this, last year the Big East was the #9 or #10 conference, no matter what rating system you use -- ARPI (9), NCRPI (10), Elo (10), Massey (10). It's not that the Big East doesn't have depth in its upper half or so, it seems to me it's more that it's lacking a lot of strength at the top. Here are its teams' ARPI ranks from last year. The conference would have to have a massive improvement this year to end up with more than a couple of teams in the NCAA Tournament. Possible, but perhaps unlikely: StJohns 32 Georgetown 37 DePaul 62 Providence 64 Butler 70 Marquette 75 Creighton 172 Xavier 205 SetonHall 227 Villanova 265
Thanks CPT ... in addition to lacking that very strong team at the top, I think they also had an exceptionally weak bottom 3 dragging the conference RPI down. Can you post the top 10 conferences again? I'm just curious as to which conferences rated better than BE last year. I think you mentioned it was very tight from 5-10 so a pretty balanced year last year. In what I thought was a down year for the BE, they got 3 teams in (SJ, G-town, Butler) and DePaul and Providence were both close also. So I don't think it is too much of a stretch to get 4 in this year. I expect Marquette to rebound and be in the mix as well as the 5 mentioned above.
Here are the 2015 top 10 in the ARPI, where the Big East was #9. These aren't much different than any of the other rating systems: ACC 0.5875 BigTen 0.5809 SEC 0.5713 PacTwelve 0.5704 American 0.5655 BigTwelve 0.5606 Colonial 0.5567 BigWest 0.5380 BigEast 0.5322 WestCoast 0.5300 For 2015, I see the ACC and Big 10 as Group A; then the SEC, Pac 12, American, Big 12, and Colonial (!) as Group B; then the Big West, Big East, and West Coast as Group C. In looking at the Big East's three NCAA Tournament teams in 2015, you have to remember that the only reason Butler was in the tournament was that it won the Conference Tournament. If Georgetown or St. Johns had won, the Big East would have had only two teams. On the other hand, as you imply, Marquette had an off year. If they get back to previous form, they could be a good bet.
While reviewing incoming classes getting ready for next season, I found a few interesting items on team websites: Butler adds international recruit: http://www.butlersports.com/news/2016/4/4/4_4_2016_3521.aspx?path=wsoc Creighton also adds international and incoming class is now 16 ... wow that's a lot of girls: http://www.gocreighton.com/news/201...ecruiting-class-for-2016-to-16.aspx?path=wsoc DePaul added a USC transfer: http://www.depaulbluedemons.com/sports/w-soccer/spec-rel/010616aaa.html Georgetown added a UCLA goalkeeper transfer: http://www.guhoyas.com/sports/w-soccer/spec-rel/020116aaa.html St. John's added a Hungarian Women's national team player: http://www.redstormsports.com/sports/w-soccer/spec-rel/051316aaa.html Seton Hall added two transfers: http://shupirates.cstv.com/sports/w-soccer/spec-rel/060216aaa.html Xavier brings in 2 JUCO transfers: http://www.goxavier.com/news/2016/4/4/womens-soccer-adds-juco-transfer-shay-martinez.aspx?path=wsoc
Exhibition games start this week!! Getting psyched for the season. Here is the BennetRank of each team heading into the season: 55 Georgetown 12 70 DePaul 11 79 St. John's (NY) 12 97 Marquette 0 101 Butler 2 109 Providence 2 140 Xavier 5 171 Creighton 13 208 Villanova 21 218 Seton Hall 18
http://www.bigeast.com/news/2016/8/10/WSOC_0810165146.aspx Georgetown Unanimously Selected As Preseason WSOC Favorite Preseason Coaches’ Poll Points (First-Place Votes) 1. Georgetown - 81 (9) 2. DePaul - 64 (1) 3. Marquette - 61 4. Butler - 55 5. St. John’s - 53 6. Providence - 44 7. Creighton - 35 8. Xavier - 26 9. Villanova - 21 10. Seton Hall - 10 Let the debates begin!
Some exhibition results: Villanova 4 - 1 Temple DePaul 1 - 0 Louisville Georgetown 4 - 1 American Butler 2 - 2 Kansas St. Johns 0 - 1 UMass - Lowell From past years experience, exhibition results are rather meaningless but for Villanova, this may be a good sign!
http://herosports.com/news/d1-womens-soccer/big-east-womens-soccer-2016-preview#1 Chris Henderson's preview of Big East
So 1st 2 games in the books (except SH who plays tonight and DePaul). Overall the conference is 8-6-4 Not great but not terrible either. I think the conference will need to improve on that over the rest of the non-conf games if they expect to get some at large bids. No big surprises to me so far. Providence had a nice result with tie at Rutgers but also had an ugly 4-1 loss to BC. Georgetown decimated Towson 6-0 partially due an early red card left Towson with 10 players but also lost 3-0 to Stanford. It appears to me the conference still doesn't have a top 20 type team but does have 5 or so solid next level teams. Anybody else have an opinion on things here?
http://www.bigeast.com/news/2016/8/26/WSOC_0826164809.aspx 2-2 night for BE but both losses were heartbreakers against quality sides
So after all teams have played 3 or 4 games, here is how they all stand: 2016 Women's Soccer Standings School Overall Pct. Streak St. John's 2-0-2 0.750 T2 Georgetown 3-1 0.750 W2 Seton Hall 2-1 0.667 W2 Butler 2-1-1 0.625 W1 Creighton 2-1-1 0.625 L1 Xavier 2-1-1 0.625 L1 Marquette 2-2 0.500 W2 Providence 1-2-1 0.375 W1 Villanova 1-2 0.333 L2 DePaul 0-2-1 0.167 L2 Obviously record doesn't always tell the whole story so I would love to hear some feedback from others on how the teams are stacking up this year.
Definitely a good start for G-town but they do have some real tough tests coming up starting this weekend against Rutgers and with Virginia and West Virginia looming in the not too distant future. Cpthomas ... Anyone else have a "tournament look" to them in your opinion or still too early to tell? As we have discussed in the past, I think the goal for the BE this year is to get 4 teams in. To do that, I think the whole conference RPI has to improve before the league schedule starts. Georgetown looks to be the "top team" they were missing last year but I think the bottom of the league (SH , Creighton, Villanova) all look stronger this year as well so hopefully that will help. Not sure what is going on with DePaul and Providence. Expected them both to be strong squads this year. I know it is still early but anyone have some insight there?
Right now, my bracket simulation says Georgetown will be the only Big East team, if they're the conference champion. None of the other teams gets an at large selection. If someone else wins the conference tournament, then that team will be the automatic qualifier and Georgetown will get an at large selection. Your comment on the conference RPI is a good one. Right now, my simulation says the Big East will end up as the #11 conference in average ARPI. Historically (last 9 years), the no conference ranked #10 or poorer has had a team receive an at large selection to the NCAA Tournament. Only their automatic qualifier has participated. Some of this obviously can change if some of the Big East teams perform better than my simulation expects or if other teams perform more poorly than expected. The problem my simulation sees, however, is that if the Big East teams perform as expected, they won't have anything outstanding as selling points -- i.e., they won't meet any of the standards I've identified as corresponding with getting an at large selection. This is the first season, however, I've done the simulation process, and it's mostly for fun and as an experiment, so take it with a big grain of salt. If you're interested in following along with the simulation, which I update weekly by replacing simulated individual game results with actual game results for the games just played, go here: RPI and Bracketology for D1 Women's Soccer Blogspace
Georgetown definitely looks and plays like a tournament team. They should be in top 20 rankings this week in all the major polls. Nice win for Providence over Colgate. They are returning to form and are starting to have more of a tournament look as well. Cpthomas might disagree but I believe they will be in strong consideration come year end. DePaul finally picked up a win over Army, but at just 1-2-2, they will need to get some results out west this upcoming weekend to have any consideration for an at-large berth later on. Same holds true for St. Johns. They have a nice 4-0-2 record but haven't played anybody decent and have two ties that could hurt down the road if they don't get some results to cancel them out. They need results out west this weekend as well. Villanova still dragging down the conference record (and RPI?) at just 1-4. Playing a difficult non-conf schedule only matters if you actually get some results and unfortunately, they haven't. I would still love to get some first hand insight into these and other BE teams. Anyone who has been at any games live, please post your thoughts.
I think that Nova was a bit shell shocked against Minnesota, but proved for most of the game on Sunday against UNC that they could hold their own. I think that their record will improve over the season.
The non-conference schedule is almost over. Most teams have just 1 or 2 non-conf. games left. Overall BE record is a respectable 35-27-12 G-town clearly carrying the flag for the conference this season with a BR of 7 and 2 high profile victories under their belt. Villanova still dragging the conference down with a lowly 213 BR. I'm not sure why Marquette has such a high BR. (Maybe cpthomas can explain?). With little opportunity to improve before the conf schedule, the conference game against Georgetown becomes the one and only chance for these teams to make a case for an at large bid. Georgetown 6-1 0 BR 7 Creighton 4-1-2 BR 84 St. John's 4-1-3 BR 77 Butler 5-2-1 BR 76 Xavier 5-2-1 BR 143 Providence 4-3-1 BR 102 Seton Hall 3-3-0 BR 185 Marquette 2-4-2 BR 57 DePaul 1-4-2 BR 103 Villanova 1-6-0 BR 213
Just checked and, "Wow!" My simulation has Marquette ending the season at #57, exactly matching their current BR rank. Something you should guard against is looking at their current record and reaching a conclusion. Look at the balance of their schedule and calculate their ultimate record. That's something I like about the simulation: It helps avoid panic or over-enthusiasm. My bracket simulation has Marquette just short of an NCAA Tournament at large selection. But, things will move around some, so they're potentially in the picture. If you want to know my simulated Marquette results for the entire season, post a request and I'll post the simulated results here.
Chris, I would be interested to see the simulated results. I'd also be interested to know if in your opinion, there are any significant Big East games left other than the matches against Georgetown which could potentially move a team significantly up or down the bubble.
Hoyas continue to impress. Wins over #2 UVA and @#1 WVU. Wonder if there's any chance of a high seed for the Hoyas with the BE's low RPI?