The obstacle is Merkel. Without her, Jamaica or a CDU-FDP-AfD would be possible. So the choice is to vote as long as there is a majority or Merkel is gone. SPD would likely lose, that is why SPD MEPs are for it. The middle party establishment aka the delegates mentioned above as well. At least 50% of them. Not because they think they could get anything through under Merkel. The other 50% fear SPD would implode if they went in a grand coalition under Merkel. Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende. Rather an end with horror than a horror without end. It's better to make a painful break thandraw out the agony.
Pardon my ignorance here, but what's the real difference here between a coalition with the CDU in charge led by Merkel vs. the same coalition with the CDU in charge led by someone else? Will the CDU under different leadership behave differently? I'm skeptical.
Merkel has moved a center right party to center left. It's like suddenly a republican president started saying immigrants welcome, taxes up for the rich, equal rights n stuff. Those who are about to follow her in the party chair will run a race to the right to bring the party back where it belongs according to them and to fight back AfD. Think Republican establishment racing to the right to win over tea party votes. That will make CDU-AfD coalitions and with that majorities possible. Or AfD will become neglectable and CDU can do coalitions with FDP. Jens Spahn, who is seen by many as the next conservative chancellor, is certainly clever enough to let others do the dirty job of knifing her out of office and then take the job himself. In order to that he'll have to win the rights wingers over and their motto said by Franz Josef Strauss in the 80ies: "To the right of CDU/CSU there must only be the wall" while Merkel will try to bring some party lefty through to secure her legacy. Dobrindt (CSU), Spahn (CDU), Lindner (FDP)
it seems to me that it is a choice choice between what is good for Europe (GroKo) and what is good for German democracy (no GroKo).— Hans Kundnani (@hanskundnani) January 19, 2018
In the end the SPD is caught in a horrendous bind arising out of their disastrous campaign. While its tempting to think this can be fixed by going into the wilderness, I don't see it myself without a new leadership.
Thats the card SPD leaders will play: A "nogroko" tomorrow will basically wipe the 20 highest party officials out and 28 yo sweetheart Kevin Kühnert will become their leader. Would you rather do a self-decapitation or voluntarily go into eternal slavery?
Alice Weidel (AfD whip) seems kinda pleased with SPDs decision 362 for and 279 against further groko talks
Of course all the talk is about SPD but its interesting how badly FDP have crapped the bed here. They don't have much to show for their good election result and blew their shot at power to deliver something. Word is they are regarded as a joke in Berlin in terms of actual policy machinery According to my goss , AfD made much smarter hires for their parliamentary staff 955697005216616449 is not a valid tweet id
SPD dip in polls was to be expected. Spiegel'S chief commentator Augstein said by this AfD is going to take over SPD as second biggest party. There will be coalition negotiations now coming up with a 280ish pages contract that SPD members will have a vote on. 450k members. A few more since Sunday trying to prevent this from happening
Shock news! The vast majority of voters don't give a rats about a refugee crisis that happened 2.5 years ago Voters in boom germany are worried about lack of increase in wages to match rising living costs and lack of affordable places to live! Merkel has captured the centre and eaten the SPDs lunch. FDP were the only ones to show interest in hot issues like education! education! imagine! This is goddamn rocket science right here! "The only conceivable way for the SPD to reclaim voters is if it can present itself as viable alternative to the conservatives in economic and welfare state matters." https://t.co/d7LRA3kDGW— Foreign Policy (@ForeignPolicy) January 30, 2018
The real dynamic in germany is the extent to which Merkel's austerity politics have dominated the centre. There are great reasons why Germany should not be running surpluses, why we need investment - particularly in schools and housing, and why workers should be getting their fair share of the boom. But SPD has no cut though on these arguments.
Polling trend shows FDP shot themselves in the foot Merkel on the up SDP in trouble http://pollytix.eu/pollytix-german-election-trend/
There was a talk show last night where AfD Gauland told SPD Stegner SPD was losing all over the place since they are as the party of the workers do not lobby anymore for their core clientele. Their biggest success of the negotiations so far is to allow 1000 refugee relatives to be brought in per month for refugees who arent actually accepted. Why would someone working at VW care about this? The response was thats not a valid argument since it was coming from an AfD politician. Wtf
The local AfD branch is a mess more busy with fighting each other and leaving the parliamentary groups than fighting the other parties. German voters dont like this. By my educated guess they should rather be polling around 5%
ARD have SPD (for overall Germany) falling to its lowest ever measured rating. To put this into perspective: In March 1933, they got 18.3%.