News: Angie Merkel is as good as done

So you surely can provide a like about the universal meaning of "as good as done"?

 

So you cant. Ok

 

Idk cause when brummie has to call his mom into action then things arent go well usually.

But enough for desperate troll attempts.


When you're bout to lose Germany's Texas

 

After weeks of copying AfD rhetoric CSU are still about to lose absolute majority in Bavaria at the state elections in fall. For instance, the new minister president Söder introduced a new law that made it mandatory for all government buildings to have a crucifix in the entrance:





For these charts you have to know CSU usually poll around 48-55%. Remarkable considering the economy is booming, full employment and the state thanks to law&order policies seems comparably secure. Greens have surpassed SPD who are about to collapse completely, AfD are still at 12% from their federal election results. Losing Bavaria would shift the power in Bundesrat yet again away from the current government:



So CSU acting contrary to Ange's party line of "not copying AfD" seems to not work out for the moment

 

Lose the state in Bundesrat. Bundesrat is like you had no senate but instead the electoral college as 2nd chamber with governors deciding how each state would vote on bills on the federal level.

Ange planned on several bills changing the federal structure and education and with Bavaria there would be a chance she could negotiate a deal. Without it she can forget about it. Hence "lame duck", hence "as good as done".

 

You also have to take into account that AfD usually is undervalued in polls while the bigger parties (in this case CSU) are overrepresented. Not everyone would admit in interviews they will vote AfD. "Bradley effect". Plus AfD is only 5 years old so there is not much data.

FDP are also likelier closer to 5%. If they dont take the threshold CSU are in real trouble since all the other parties are pretty much out of the question for coalitions.

 

Little definition: CDU arent conservatives. They are Christian democrats, consisting of libertarian, national-liberal, socially conservative and Christian groups. A big tent party that was created to unify what was up to 4 parties in Weimar. Hence the name "the union". They never were conservatives as in what the Tories widely defined as "the conservatives". US Republicans also never were conservatives but rather national-liberals. While winning Jitty over in the middle Merkel has forced the national-liberal and socially conservative wings out which then ended up in the creation of AfD.

A mistake of historic proportions considering CDU did everything they could in the last 70 years to prevent exactly that from happening:

'The only thing right of us is the wall'

 

only in Germany

#Merkel‘s coalition „all Sunshine“ says social democrat chief whip Andrea Nahles. But row over details of #Migration continues to overshadow picture postcard meeting on #Zugspitze, #Germany‘s highest peak. pic.twitter.com/xkVS4zI6PP

— Michaela Kuefner (@MKuefner) May 7, 2018

 

Germany, Civey poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 32% (-1)
SPD-S&D: 17%
AfD-EFDD: 16% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9% (-1)

Field work: 6/05/18 – 13/05/18
Sample size: 11,894 pic.twitter.com/BS6ftLsBzM

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 13, 2018

 

81% are willing to stick with the Iran deal and the followups that come with it(e.g. trade war)

 

Parliamentary enquiry committee about Angie's refugee policy approaching. AfD, FDP and maybe even Greens joining together for it

So AfD will have 1-2 years making a meal out of this

 

#RoadToLosingBavaria