San Antonio has a lot of Hispanics but a big percentage of them are 3rd, 4th generation and beyond Mexican American. And when it comes to sports preferences, this group is much more like southern white Americans: love football and baseball... soccer is pretty foreign to them. It's the immigrants and their children that keep soccer alive. As the generations go by and they start assimilating, so does their taste in sports. Less soccer, more football, baseball, basketball.
I think they'll be easier to win over than the average Anglo, but this is one of the often overlooked aspects of Hispanic identity: there's a lot of internal diversity. One of the significant schisms is between the recent immigrants and the newcomers; families which have been in Texas and New Mexico since before they were part of the US have a very strong identity as a subethnic group.
It seems to me that Nashville's plan is coming together nicely. Stadium site and design approved, financing in place with only 10% public money needed, bond proposal approved, strong support from the city, etc. They are far enough along that they could very easily go from being a longshot to landing #25 or #26 and beginning play by 2020. Granted, their market isn't as large as some other bidders and that will be a relevant consideration as well, but I strongly suspect MLS will want to add at least 1 more team in the southeast to truly complete its national footprint. I also think the enormous success in nearby Atlanta is helping Nashville's cause. Same goes for Nashville's support of the Predators. A smaller, but rapidly-growing, transient city like Nashville may actually have a bit more upside in terms of the population embracing something completely new, than a city where sports loyalties are firmly entrenched with the established NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL franchises. I happen to think Detroit will be among the 28 also. But I'd be willing to make a friendly bet. If both Nashville and Detroit land teams, I'll bet Nashville out-draws Detroit in attendance, despite the fact that their city is much smaller.
There are many positives about San Antonio. It's a very rapidly-growing city and has the right demographics. But there are only 4 slots left in the next 2 rounds of expansion, with 12 bidders. So, I just don't see it happening given what the other bidders can bring to MLS. After all, MLS already has two franchises in Texas, and one of them, FC Dallas, is dead last in attendance whereas Houston is only #16. For the same reasons, I can't picture both Sacramento and San Diego getting a team, not with LAFC joining in 2018. Add both of them and the state of California would have five MLS franchises while many other important states and media markets would have none. So, assuming Sacramento is in, that most likely means San Diego is out. The league needs to build-out its national footprint to maximize the value of its TV deal prior to the 2023 contract renewal. So, look for big media markets that fill a gap in the national map to be prioritized. I happen to think the only small market team that has a shot is Nashville, and that's because MLS needs another team in the southeast, and the success of Atlanta may imply that a similar result could be achieved just 3 1/2 hours away. Otherwise, bids from Sacramento, Detroit, Phoenix, and even St. Louis (assuming they can start over and try again), will have more appeal than tripling-down on SoCal (San Diego), tripling-down on Florida (Tampa), and certainly more appeal than small markets like San Antonio, Raleigh, or even Cincy. The one wildcard in all this is Miami. Their bid for #24 is still not a done deal yet. If that falls apart, someone else will take their place.
I thought MLS seemed strangely interested in Austin given that there was no ownership group applying to move there. Welp, according to Sports Illustrated it looks like Columbus Crew might be relocating to Austin. First off, I'd like to say that while I have nothing against Austin, I hope this doesn't happen. I know MLS is a business, that Columbus is a small market with low attendance and that Precourt is dissatisfied with their stadium. So I get why they would want to move. But relocation of an MLS original club would make me sad, and I think increases cynicism amongst fans. Anyway if this does indeed look like it is happening, I think it harms San Antonio's chances but greatly increases FC Cincinnati's. It's hard for me to see MLS abandoning Ohio but putting 4 teams in Texas.
The curtain lifts, THIS is the reason for the silence on Sam Antonio. Man I do not agree with what the Columbus ownership is doing at all, that’s ruthless. Hope it doesnt succeed. I think Austin local politics will kill it on site, they’d rather develop hotels, apartments, and offices on a grotesque scale. I don’t see any stadium effort succeeding there
I cant see MLS going with 4 teams in TX. San Antonio is likely dead now. Really sucks for Columbus fans.
I'm wondering how this will trickle down into the rest of expansion. If Precourt spends the next six months playing Austin against Columbus, it could easily lock out both San Antonio and Cincinnati until its resolved.
There was an initial post I read about questions, which then was followed by a funding plan after my comment. Nashville is a good fit with ATL, Mia, and Or (assuming Miami keeps having things go their way). With Columbus hoping to move it looks like Cincy may be a lock.
The Columbus Crew move to Austin is HUGE when it comes to the League's expansion to 28. I have said before that I never really thought that having Columbus and Cincinnati in the League made business sense. Cincinnati has become electric over the past couple of years and I know MLS wants to take advantage of it, but they already had a team in that geographic area in Columbus. The move will almost definitely give Cincy an expansion bid, as long as they can get a stadium plan finalized. And the more I read about the Columbus move to Austin, the more I definitely think it is happening. As far as the December timeline goes, I still see Sacramento and Nashville as the teams announced. I see Detroit and Cincinnati now and the next two in. There bids are close but not 2020 close. Still keep an eye on San Diego and St Louis. I know MLS really wants a team there still. Maybe 7-8 years down the line.
I think you're right about Sacramento and Nashville being the two that will be announced in December. I also agree that Detroit seems like they will get a team as well. But that 4th and final slot could still go any number of directions. I know Cincy is the hot USL club right now and a Columbus relo leaves a hole in the map. But there's still time and a lot that could happen before those final two are awarded. Don't forget that there was a time when St. Louis was presumed to be a lock. St. Louis had repeatedly been an expansion candidate over the years and rose to the top of the pecking order for this latest round until partial public financing for a stadium fell-through. But if they were to get stadium financing worked-out and come back in the final round of expansion, they could go right back to the top of the pecking order due to the size of the market, the central location, the history of soccer in that city, the potential rivalries with Chicago and SKC, etc. Since it could be a long time before the league expands beyond 28, I think St. Louis will be highly-motivated to find a solution for their stadium, especially after losing an NFL franchise for the 2nd time.
Now that Columbus will be moving, Cincinnati will be about a 4 hour drive to any of Chicago, Detroit, and Nashville. Honestly, I don't think 25 teams is enough of a geographic footprint across the US. I think they'll need at least 27. With the talk of lowering the number of playoff games, they'll have to offset the lost revenue for the smaller clubs with more regular season games, say 38 games. That would allow for the following league structure. East: Montreal, Toronto, NER, Detroit, NYCFC, NYRB, Philly, DCU, Cincinnati, Raleigh Central: MinnU, Chicago, SKC, Nashville, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Austin, Orlando, Miami West: Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, RSL, Colorado, Sacramento, San Jose, LAG, LAFC, Phoenix That would cover all the geographic holes with the fewest possible teams, leaving space to expand to 32 if the situation warrants it (St. Louis/San Diego/Tampa?), but I foresee more Columbus-type moves in the future, now that we know no team is safe.
Not a bad interim solution under the circumstances. With Sarachen holding the reins, the USSF can take it's time from now through the end of next summer to find a replacement for the 2022 Word Cup Qualifiers.
The number of teams could be limited to 28 for the duration of the next TV deal. One of the primary motivations behind this wave of expansion is to the complete the national footprint prior to renewal of the current TV contract which expires in 2022. MLS wants to be in every region, and in large or growing markets that have desirable advertising demographics, to maximize the value of the next deal. The additional TV dollars will enable the league to raise the salary cap, spend more on allocation or DPs, invest in their training facilities and academies, or even just pay down the debt on all those new soccer-specific stadiums. But once the number of teams and markets is set, they won't be in a big hurry to expand further because it would just mean splitting the TV revenue 30 or 32 ways instead of 28. So, unless the Miami expansion falls apart and creates an extra slot, a few large markets could be left out (i.e.Tampa, San Diego, Phoenix, and/or St. Louis). But most of the biggest and fastest-growing markets will have a team. Also, as you mentioned, it's possible that further team relocation could occur.
Im calling it right now, markit down, MLS is going to do a gatecrashing announcement of Sac, Cincy, Detroit, and Nashville all in December and just get all 4 in. Because thats what jesus would have wanted. then we can wait for San Diego and St Louis to take their gingerly time so we can get them in too.
the small market of Cincinnati (which is larger than Nashville and comes in at 18th largest metered market when the Cincinnati and Dayton markets finish their merge) did an 8 for TV in southwest ohio for the open cup, already has a local tv deal in the freaking usl and 15 K season ticket holders in the usl. fastest growing city in the Midwest & has 11 fortune 500 companies including Retail and Grocery giants P&G & Kroger (most per capita for any city in the US). The FC Cincy bid is stronger than you think.