Is Detroit really more attractive than Phoenix when we're looking at long-term prospects though? Phoenix is already the larger media market and the population is growing at a considerably faster rate, in addition to having no MLS team for hundreds of miles around. At the very least, they should be included on the "must-have" short-list also.
Who watches a sports team because of the owner or the fans? We watch teams for star players. Sure the very small albeit very vocal segment of hardcore fans will watch Portland or Orlando because of the stadium atmosphere, but the casual fan is turning in because they've heard of Kaka, or the team they are playing has a known star player. The stadium atmosphere only gets you so far for so long if the product on the field is subpar (see, Philadelphia Union).
Phoenix is close. It's a should-have for a full size league, but not quite a must-have. Moving the needle on a national or international level is what I think of there, and Phoenix doesn't. However, Phoenix and a Carolina team would serve regional goals, which has been mentioned as an expansion criterion. When I say 'owner,' I mean the decision-makers have a greater vision and build something compelling.
For regional goals, teams in Phoenix, St Louis, Nashville, and the Carolinas would fill the biggest geographic holes. Adding in Sacramento, Indianapolis, Detroit, and Tampa would cover the largest remaining markets (not counting Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Baltimore) which takes the league to 32. Cincinnati, San Antonio, San Diego, and one of the other Carolina bids would make it 36.
Hello Bart Starr, Brett Favre, Sterling Sharpe, and Arron Rodgers........ Again star players drive eyeballs to the team. Browns vs Bills on a Monday Night is a ratings doormat............two crap teams* devoid of stars. *Both teams have rabid fanbases as well..... The NFL is also on it's own level in this country due to Fantasy Football and gambling interests which have greatly contributed and influenced its' popularity.
Which hasn't always been a media or even a huge local draw. Up until 1994 they played some of their home games every year in Milwaukee. Before Brett Favre turned them into a league power and network darling the Packers were seen as an also-ran with a great history. From 1980-1993 the Packers were only on Monday Night Football a total of six times, for example.
Nobody watches to see the owner. They watch to see what the owner accomplishes. A good owner markets the team well which generates revenue to pay for better players and amenities, etc. etc.
Here is the thing. Detroit gets you 95% of the state of Michigan, plus Windsor ON and Toledo OH. That is 10+ million people, and 10 million reasons why the other Detroit sports teams draw so well. The MSA figure is not a good metric for Detroit, because a college student living 20 minutes away in Ann Arbor is not included in Detroit's MSA. A person living in a multistory residential building less than 3 miles from the stadium site in Windsor is not included in Detroit's MSA. For people not familiar with Michigan, 90+ percent of the state's population live within a three hour drive of Detroit. Given that it is a car state where sports are a big thing, people don't think twice about driving to sporting events. Further, the Detroit teams are viewed as the state's teams, so almost everyone in the state becomes a fan of the Detroit teams (excluding perhaps some U.P. Packer fans, and Chicago fans in Berrien County). Now to be fair, using a similar argument PHX could include Tucson and most of AZ, but that only gets you to 6.5 Million. And AZ is growing much faster than Michigan, so maybe someday that could change. But in 2017, Miami is the only other market without MLS that is larger than Detroit when you truly look at the full catchment area of the prospective fan base. Because with Detroit, you are also getting the Grand Rapids, Toledo, Lansing, Ann Arbor, Flint MSAs as well.
A great look at why cities and regions must be viewed holistically, rather than as a rank in a list of MSAs, TV markets, etc.
I think a good atmosphere makes the prospect of going to a stadium a lot more attractive. Keep an eye on DC United attendances when they move.
Determining the best market from a population perspective is more complex than simple MSA or CSA numbers. There are two main ways sports teams make money ticket sales and TV viewers. When it comes to ticket sales the most important number to look at is the MSA/CSA numbers and the density of the population. Sure you can have the largest MSA, but if that MSA is the size of Texas your density might not be great. For a top level team you probably want to take into consideration the population within a 10, 20 and 30 mile radii because that is where the vast majority of your consistent ticket purchases will come from. When it comes to TV MSA/CSA are not always the best indicator. For this state lines also tend to be a big factor. The vast majority of people in Michigan or Arizona are going to root for the team in Detroit or Phoenix. This doesn't necessarily apply to states like Ohio or Florida where you have multiple cities that can support a team, but otherwise it tends to be true. Looking at those numbers alone doesn't tell the whole story though. You also have to consider which revenue stream is bigger. In the NFL and NBA the biggest revenue stream is TV viewership. So when they obviously prioritize TV footprint. MLS on the other hand TV isn't as big of a money maker for them. So MLS is really going to want to prioritize cities with higher local populations, but they do want that TV money (if it is still there in 10 years) so they will also want to balance that with future TV prospects. In either case both Detroit and Phoenix would be highly prized by MLS.
The factor missing is the likelihood of those people to spend their money on tickets to games. That is going to involve factors like number of people playing the sport, number of teens/adults playing the sport, etc. However, I find it doubtful that someone would want to make a 9 digit investment that they don't think will pay of.
With MLS planning on announcing the next two cities before the end of the year, there is really only 1 factor that will determine who gets the next team. That is....which two bids have their shit together better than the rest. And that means, which two markets have their stadium situation sorted out. I personally think the league is going to want to add one East and one West team. As it stands today, Tampa and Sacramento are the default winners. I think Tampa would get passed up if any of the other eastern markets actually get a stadium site resolved in the next 3-4 months. But barring that, welcome Tampa and Sac-Town.
I think that tracks, I think Cincy, San Antonio, and Nashville are close behind if they put the pedal to the metal
Generally agree. But the league has no problem admitting single teams, or putting two expansion teams in the same side of the league; half of the times the league added a pair they went into the same conference.
Good call, but since Miami probably won't be ready until 2020 or 2021 I think there's a fair chance that MLS will bring in three expansion candidates by 2020.
Yeah...I agree that 3 will probably come into the league in quick succession. For me, and I think for most people, the assumption is that Miami is #24 by default. So we're really only talking about teams 25 & 26. My personal belief is that MLS would rather not expand to Tampa (no insider information) if they can expand their footprint in the south or midwest. I think any of Nashville, Raleigh, Detroit or Cincy would jump them in the pecking order if any of them get a stadium situation sorted out.
Good call. They could put two teams in one conference or the other and just realign as needed. Still, as it stands today, Tampa and Sacramento are the only two bids ready to go right now. A lot can happen in the next 3-4 months. But short of a stadium deal being approved and financed, nobody else is cutting the line.
San Antonio could be impending expansion and Nashville's mayor has apparently already allocated 150mil of the city proposed city budget to an MLS stadium. Agree , but those two seem to be sneaking up rather quickly.
For sure. It's hardly set in stone at this point. And its a great position for MLS to be in at this point.
It's still too soon to tell. We need to wait until November to get a clearer picture of who the front-runners are.
I feel that MLS already has a "draft board" that they update with color codes to indicate each hurdle that has been jumped. They have a pretty good idea who are the front runners and the hopefuls both as a group and individual owners. I am sure that Miami was the big hold up thus pushing things out to Nov and that they already have picked which team(s) to announce as long as the checks/cheques clear.
MLS just bought back the portion of SUM that they sold a few years back. They paid three franchise fees for it. Maybe the checks have cleared?