We will root for it. It also doesn't seem like a stretch. I agree. If one of those was not to happen, however, it would be Canada getting some sort of result against the US. That would be an upset but, at this moment in time, not as big an upset as it would have been in the past.
Not quite. A tie leaves Group A-4 as: Curaçao 6 +1 Costa Rica 3 0 Haiti 2 -1 Costa Rica would just need to beat Haiti by 2 to win the group.
When there are FIFA matchdays and rankings the same month, the rankings always come last. Given that the October rankings were released 9 days after the last games on Tuesday October 15 rather than 2 days after, June 18 is likely. I expect Concacaf to do the draw within a month after the rankings so teams know their schedule and can sell tickets. When the Semifinals ended on September 2016, the Hexagonal started in November rather than October so the schedule could be made, teams could sell tickets, and some countries use multiple stadiums and need to decide where to play each game.
Actually with the Euro and Copa starting on June 12th, and the CNL ending on the 9th, I'd expect the ranking to be out the 10th or 11th.
Apparently this happened: Out of window friendly Trinidad & Tobago(1214) vs. Anguilla(831) 15-0 1 - (1/(10^(-383/600) + 1)) = 0.1870 5 * 0.1870 = 0.935 TRI +1 AIA -1 MEX 1612 USA 1530 JAM 1441 CRC 1436 HON 1368 CAN 1339 -- SLV 1336 CUW 1323 PAN 1310 HAI 1281 TRI 1214 (+1) ATG 1129 I might be slow with the updates when the games get going this week, but I'll get to them when I get to them. The key games are Curacao vs. Costa Rica, USA vs. Canada, and Panama vs. Mexico. Curacao and Canada need to get some more points and possibly win their groups. While not officially eliminated, Panama has almost no chance of winning its group, so this match is its last chance to achieve a big result and get back closer to the line.
Costa Rica won 2-1 with an 83rd minute goal while down a man. Here are scenarios: Costa Rica wins the group with a win or draw Haiti wins the group with a win by 2 (on goal differential) or a win by 1 with at least 2 goals scored (which would put Curacao last on goals scored and Haiti would win head-to-head over Costa Rica Curacao wins the group with a 1-0 win by Haiti (all three teams will have 5 points, 3 goals scored, and 3 goals allowed, and Curacao will have the fewest disciplinary points) A first goal by Costa Rica or second goal by Haiti eliminates Curacao during the game. Excluding times when a team is affected by the outcome of more than one simultaneous or overlapping game, being eliminated during a game must be rare. That game will be on Sunday at 6:00 P.M. USA Eastern. At 8:00 P.M., Trinidad and Tobago must win at Honduras to avoid relegation. If Trinidad and Tobago wins, Martinique is relegated.
14 November League A Martinique vs. Honduras 1-1 does not count Curacao(1323) vs. Costa Rica(1436) 1-2 1 - (1/(10^(-113/600) + 1)) = 0.3933 0.3933 * 25 = 9.8325 CRC +10 CUW -10 Friendly Ecuador(1368) vs. Trinidad & Tobago(1214) 3-0 1 - (1/(10^(-154/600) + 1)) = 0.3564 0.3564 * 10 = 3.564 ECU +4 TRI -4 MEX 1612 USA 1530 CRC 1446 (+10) [+1] JAM 1441 [-1] HON 1368 CAN 1339 -- SLV 1336 CUW 1313 (-10) PAN 1310 HAI 1281 TRI 1210 (-3) ATG 1129 This nearly ends the hex hopes for Curacao. It needs Haiti to beat Costa Rica exactly 1-0 to create a three way tie, making Curacao win the group on fair play points. Otherwise it will be a big gap to make up with only friendlies.
15 November League A USA(1530) vs. Canada(1339) 4-1 1 - (1/(10^(-191/600) + 1)) = 0.3245 0.3245 * 25 = 8.1125 USA +8 CAN -8 Panama(1310) vs. Mexico(1612) 0-3 1 - (1/(10^(-302/600) + 1)) = 0.2389 0.2389 * 25 = 5.9725 MEX +6 PAN -6 League B Antigua & Barbuda(1129) vs. Jamaica(1441) 0-2 1 - (1/(10^(-312/600) + 1)) = 0.2319 0.2319 * 25 = 5.7975 JAM +6 ATG -6 MEX 1618 (+6) USA 1538 (+8) JAM 1447 (+6) CRC 1446 (+10) HON 1368 SLV 1336 [+1] -- CAN 1331 (-8) [-1] CUW 1313 (-10) PAN 1304 (-6) HAI 1281 TRI 1210 (-3) ATG 1123 (-6) Bad news for Canada, which will see the gap widen if El Salvador wins twice against its League B opponents. It should still remain close enough that friendlies could cause a change in the rankings, but it will be difficult. If El Salvador loses to a CONCACAF minnow, everything changes. At the end of this window I will cut off from my tracking the teams more than 100 points below the line. I don't see much chance for anyone below Canada, but I will track a few more teams just in case we see someone make an unexpected rise.
I'd love to see Canada and El Salvador agree to a friendly at a neutral location (somewhere in US), and have this thing decided on the field.
It's a nice thought, and really appealing to neutrals, but whoever is ahead anyway would never agree to the match.
16 November League B El Salvador(1336) vs. Montserrat(911) 1-0 1 - (1/(10^(-425/600) + 1)) = 0.1637 0.1637 * 25 = 4.0925 SLV +4 MSR -4 MEX 1618 (+6) USA 1538 (+8) JAM 1447 (+6) CRC 1446 (+10) HON 1368 SLV 1340 (+4) [+1] -- CAN 1331 (-8) [-1] CUW 1313 (-10) PAN 1304 (-6) HAI 1281 TRI 1210 (-3) ATG 1123 (-6) El Salvador narrowly avoided disaster with a stoppage-time winner in the 91st minute at home. The win clinches promotion and qualification to the 2021 Gold Cup. There is one downside though, concerning its fate in these rankings, as this means it won't be playing in 25-weighted Gold Cup qualifiers before the hex cutoff date. I think it's still better to win now rather than cleverly finding a way into those qualifiers, as there's no margin to afford losing points anywhere. Edited to correct a math error that I originally posted in the calculation for this game.
El Salvador played a country the size of a Canadian village (5000 people) at home and it took them 91 minutes to score. Yet, they could get a hex spot. What a federation we have. An utter joke.
Montserrat isn't exactly cannon fodder anymore. Their players and system works pretty well for them. Plus you're giving El Salvador too much credit, they're very mediocre atm and their coach is clueless. All of his results have come from very bad performances and fortunate circumstances. Welcome to CONCACAF
To me the icing on the cake is that a Canadian is President at the moment and approved this nonsensical system. For all the corruption that has taken place it seems now CONCACAF is just filled with incompetent people as well. How anyone thought starting with the hex was a good idea is still shocking. I know some have said it was because they wanted to schedule in nations league games but it is still such a stupid way to do the qualifiers
Of course that's true. That also brings up an interesting point: with El Salvador likely holding a precarious lead, they have an incentive to avoid scheduling any friendlies in March/June, to avoid the risk of losing points. This, in theory hurts their own preparation and development. Another perverse incentive this idiotic format created. So, where we are at: Dominican Republic still has incentive in their last game vs El Salvador, as they need a win to clinch 2nd in the group and remain alive in Gold Cup qualifiers. A tie might work; but, probably not. Estimating points, for El Salvador, a win is +6, and gives them a 15 point cushion on Canada, a tie is -6, and margin slips to 3, a loss is -19, and they trail by 10. In that last scenario (El Salvador loss), Curacao could potentially slip back into this by being relegated, and getting into the 2nd round of gold cup qualifying. They would trail Canada by 18. Could likely get 5 with a qualifier win. Would need a couple of friendlies vs some decent opponents....but could be possible.
What a joke Say Canada misses out on the top 6 we need to win the tournament of teams ranked 7-35 correct? (Based on Fifa World Rankings?) 7. Canada 8. Curacao 9. Panama 10. Haiti 11. Trinidad & Tobago 12. Antigua & Barbuda 13. Guatemala 14. Nicaragua 15. St.Kits & Nevis And then a bunch of nations who likely have no real shot and even nations ranked 12-15 don't have much of a chance. All of Canada, Curacao, Panama, Haiti and even Trinidad&Tobago will believe in their chances. If all games will be over 2legs I believe Canada can get the job done. Got to take it 1 game at a time, I think over 2 legs we should be considered the favourites over all of these teams. Add that our best players are young still and SHOULD be getting better. Curacao and Haiti are good. Both better than Panama imo..
Assuming all the favorites like Canada, Panama, etc get through their group stage games against the likes of Bahamas, St Lucia, whoever, then yes, the final 8 teams will each play 2 legged ties against each other to determine who advances. That could be tough for anybody to get through. Imagine if they play Curacao in the quarterfinals. And then Guatemala in the semifinals. And then have to get past Panama in the final. And then their reward for that is a two legged tie against the 4th place team in the hex, maybe US, Costa Rica, or Jamaica. And then if you can get past that, you still have to play a 2-legged tie against a team from another confederation. Australia if you're lucky, but if it's against a team like Colombia, forget it.
Yea, but you have to think on the flipside of that, whichever team that can survive that type of "gauntlet" should be more than "battle tested" for a 2-legged Inter-Confederation Play-off final. You've essentially survived 3-4 finals on your way to that game.
Curacao is winnable, Guatemala is also winnable and Panama is winnable. It's all dependent on Mexica and USA not coming 4th (I think Costa Rica is on the trend down and Jamaica is about the equivalent of Honduras or Curacao). Ofcourse I am assuming Canada were to win the little tournament of nations ranked 7-35(which given our past would be wrong to assume but just for arguments sake). If the intercontinental match is against any South American side it's pretty much all for nothing.
But the margin should be small enough that Canada could make up the difference with four friendly wins. So shutting down and hoping that Canada loses friendlies carries its own risk, and would, as you say, be bad for the team's development. The format would be slightly more palatable if CONCACAF forced all of the top ten teams to play friendlies in March and June if they aren't in official competitions. They could tell them that they can schedule whomever they want, but if they don't schedule anybody, CONCACAF will set up games for them. Oh well.
C'CAF is the dumbest Fed in the history of the universe. I bet USSF corruption played a part in this buffoonery as well. Can't beat T&T and qualify for the WC so something must be done to ensure the USA receives favoritism and doesn't miss it again.
It's not much of an advantage. The battle hardening doesn't take place against better teams, just teams at a similar level and what would normally be 3 places from qualifying. Whoever the CONCACAF team comes up against (unless they draw OFC) will have played a series of matches including teams better and of similar strength and they will also be "battle hardened".