I would imagine best case scenario for Repugs, defend Trump until Primary season is over, then vote to impeach before general election, then hope for the best.
I think the best hope they have is closing ranks and just impeaching/convicting him ASAP. If there is near unanimity then individual Senators/Reps can diffuse more of the voter anger. I think your idea is the second best option. There's a lot of potential for general election blowback there though. That's pretty likely to crush turnout on the GOP side. Enough to cost them about anything in close to moderate.
It was coincidental that he was tweeting that the race would be interesting just ahead of the revenge porn coming out.
Reporter behind Katie Hill nude photos worked for GOP candidates who opposed her: report https://t.co/6qxUYgtqNn— Salon (@Salon) October 30, 2019
There aren't many unbiased reporters left. They're certainly not at the media outlets that scream about media bias. They're among the worst of the perpetrators.
The Federal Elections Commission (FEC) made https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2018.pdf which takes almost a year to make. LOL at Hillary Clinton getting 7 write-in votes for senator from Vermont won by Sanders. 12 Democrats will be up for re-election in 2022, all of them are in states won by Clinton, and 10 are in states where the other senator is a Democrat. The exceptions are Vermont, where the other senator is Sanders, and Colorado, where the other senator is Cory Gardner who could lose next year. Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire could be the most likely Republican gains in 2022. In 2022, the Republicans have to defend: Arizona: Was solidly Republican for president and senators before last year, the winner of the special election with McSally will be up for re-election so it could be a Democrat Florida: Marco Rubio Georgia: The seat occupied by resigning Johnny Isakson will have the appointed senator have a special election next year so the incumbent in 2022 could be a Democrat Iowa: Chuck Grassley, Democrats won 3 of 4 House seats last year North Carolina: Richard Burr Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey, Democratic senator Bob Casey Jr. was re-elected by 13.1% and Democratic governor Tom Wolf was re-elected by 17.1% Wisconsin: Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected and Democrat Tony Evers defeated Republican governor Scott Walker
Prepare for a massive amount of political tv advertising in 2020. Right now I'm seeing a good number of ads for VA 2019 elections even though they are for lower-level positions like state senator and delegate and are broadcast in the DC media market which is expensive and less than half is in VA.
Also, the dems only need to flip a couple seats. And there are pretty much no limits on campaign contributions.
For 2020, the Dems need to pick up at least 3 seats. Questionable seats they can hold: AL Those they could potentially get: GA and AZ from special elections Those they could potentially flip: CO, GA (Perdue), IA, ME,NC and I'll toss Texas out there although I think that's a big ask at the moment. Getting AL and running the table would get them to 56. Not particularly likely, but there are a lot of viable paths to 52. For 2022: Seats Dems would need to heavily defend: CO, NH, and NV Seats someone will need to defend from the 2020 special elections: GA and AZ Seats the GOP would need to most heavily defend: FL, IA, NC, OH, PA, WI Assuming the Dems defeat Trump, a Dem Senate control with 52 seats, there is some daylight in a midterm election against the President's party to suggest the GOP could net 3 seats and retake the Senate in 2022. I doubt the GOP would try a realignment type of shift toward the middle on either social or economic issues in that scenario. If we were talking about the type of cushion provided if the Dems held 53-56 seats, and the sitting administration was popular, I think they may be forced into that. Because it would be very difficult for them to wrest control back in 2022 and even with the election slate in 2024 being favorable to the GOP, it wouldn't be a gimme.
That running the table would make 55, not 56. Including Independents, the Democrats have 47, and your list has them gaining 8. Ohio has the longest active streak of voting for the president, but I didn't list it among the most likely Democratic gains in 2022 because Rob Portman won by 20.8% in 2016. He had the tenth biggest margin of victory of the 22 Republican winners, and a bigger margin of victory than Republicans, in Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana.. Iowa was similar in that it's a swing state, but Grassley won by 24.8% in 2016, Trump won, and Governor Kim Reynolds won re-election after becoming becoming governor in 2017 when Terry Branstad resigned. Guesses can be made by looking at what states have what party senators up for re-election, but there's a lot we don't know. If Trump wins, Democratic challengers in 2022 could say Republicans should have convicted him out of office. If Trump loses or leaves office earlier and the president is a Democrat, Democratic challengers in 2022 who talk about about Trump could be beating a dead horse.
You're arguing things here that really aren't within the scope of what my original post was getting at. I'm not saying X will happen. What I'm doing is laying out a scenario in which a GOP reshuffle would be hastened. Taking a step back, the issue was one of pending realignment and what it would take for the GOP to get there. The GOP's problem is that they've put their eggs in parts of the electorate that are decreasing in share. Looking at racial/ethnic composition and degree/no degree white composition of the electorate, here are the changes in the Brookings baseline case by 2036. Move GOP: nothing Flip Dem: AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, PA, WI. This actually probably understates the baseline, because it doesn't reflect increasing secularization, which would likely flip TX, IA, and OH as well. Now obviously the GOP can't survive this scenario, so they're going to change their stances somewhere along the way to attract various groups: Hispanic, Asian, and college ed whites. But they probably won't do that until they "need" to do that. To see what I'm talking about, here are the forecasted Dem EVs if subgroups (not factoring in religion) continue to vote the same way from 2020 onward: 279, 306, 322, 338, and 350. 2028 (322 EVs) is where things get ugly. In order for them to act in a way that would force a realignment prior to 2028, they're going to need to be beaten so soundly that they can't really get things back together until 2024-26, whereupon they'll need to (to borrow a US sports analogy) blow it up c2028 anyway. And that would likely involve a 2020 election where they a) lose the POTUS and both chambers and b) they lose in such a way that they don't have a great chance of rolling back those losses in the following midterm. They can cut their losses and get ahead of the problem a bit 2022-24 rather than deferring until 2028 or so when the pressures really begin to mount. Knowing those things, the only way they cut requires the following preconditions: Trump loses, the Dem House margin widens, and the Dems get control of the Senate. The only question is how many seats Dems would need in the Senate for the GOP to contemplate "blowing it all up" to chart a better course in time for 2028. That was what I was trying to answer, and the answer is at least 53 seats, but probably even more. Could Trump win, the GOP retain control of the Senate, etc? Yeah, but that's not the question and it's completely irrelevant. I will say one thing about projecting Senate seats: don't get caught up on margins like in Portman's case. Margins reflect a lot of things that don't reflect underlying state partisanship. In his case it was a 2016 swing election and the fact that Dems weren't dropping any money into that seat, with Portman outspending his Dem counterpart > 2:1. Runaway margins do not reflect potential competitiveness as much as they reflect one side allocating their funds elesewhere. And that goes for Dem and GOP runaway elections alike. Strategy in 2022 is largely unknown at this point, but again, I'm talking about what it would take for the GOP to dramatically recast itself. And in those 2022 scenarios, we're talking about a popular Dem President, 54 or so Dem seats in the Senate, a healthy house majority, and likely a lot of additional Trump dirt coming to light that would make the complicit GOPer (like Portman) bigger targets. And in that scenario, Portman would have a huge target on him.
ok, so these are 2019 results, but I will still post it here. Some numbers from Tuesday. Trading suburban votes for rural votes is a good swap for Democrats IMO, the problem in some states, is that the rate difference is huge. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-virginia-mississippi-and-kentucky-can-tell-us-about-2020/
The Trump effect is so huge. The guy who carried the rural white districts four years ago got annihilated there this election, probably for nothing that he did at all .. but rather because Trump has radicalized those voters to vote down any and all Democrats. Meanwhile, the suburbs move in the other direction, albeit not so dramatically in terms of percentages (but then again, the sheer numbers are higher, also because of the Trump effect. The guy singlehandedly is re-positioning the Republican party.
To all billionaires thinking of running for President, Perhaps instead of spending that money on a campaign, you could just buy Trump out of the WH with a big, fat TV contract.Thanks for your consideration,America.— Mieke Eoyang (@MiekeEoyang) November 8, 2019
Of the 28 senators running for re-election in 2020, according to Wikipedia: 17 have 0 primary challengers 6 have 1 primary challenger 2 have 2 primary challengers (Thom Tillis in NC and John Cornyn in TX) 2 have 3 primary challengers (Marthy McSally in AZ and Ed Markey in MA) 1 has 4 primary challengers (Lindsey Graham in SC) Cornyn, Markey, and Graham should be safe for the incumbent's party. Tillis and McSally are expected to have competitive general elections. That excludes 4 retirements, "incumbent's intent unknown" for Cory Booker (NJ) and Jim Inhofe (OK), and GA's senator who will be appointed and have to run in a special election. There will be 35 senate elections, and more if anybody else leaves and has a replacement appointed.
Next, reason runs an article on how Warren plans to hurt job creators: Let’s be clear: When private equity firms acquire companies, suck out all the value they can, and walk away rich—leaving workers, their families, and their communities suffering with the consequences—it’s legalized looting. I have a plan to end it. https://t.co/p0kgOYtOPR— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) November 11, 2019
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rep-peter-king-r-ny-will-not-seek-re-election-in-2020 Peter King retiring. He won in 2018, 53-47. District is R+3. I would rate this as the top-tier pick-up opportunities for Dems to target in 2020 (retiring GOP incumbents bolded): NY-1 NY-2 NY-27 PA-1 VA-05 NC-09 GA-07 FL-18 OH-12 MI-06 IL-13 MN-01 IA-04 KS-02 TX-10 TX-22 TX-23 TX-24 CA-50 MT-AL AK-AL (no, really)
Agree. It is R+3 and easily winnable. King had the benefit of being the incumbent. That is over now. I bet his internals are pretty bad though and he realized it may not be worth it specially since he may still be in the minority again in 2021.
Republicans had gains in local elections last week in some of King's district. The two state senators are one in each party. According to Wikipedia, the district is about one-fourth Hispanic, so that's a good starting point for a Democrat to target. He was my representative before redistricting after the 2010 Census.
Interesting thread. According to this source, the Dems senators are pretty confident of flipping the senate. Interesting evening spent with 4 senators at a very small gathering. LOTS of optimism—fueled by internal #poll data—that we will flip the Senate.Maine: @SenatorCollins is DOWN by 2 points. Her #Kavanaugh vote decimated her approval rating — she went from 57 to the upper-30’s.😎— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 15, 2019 Senate breakdown is 53 @GOP—47 @SenateDems + Independent.@DougJones faces a tough re-election bid, but @jeffsessions may split the anti-Roy Moore vote. If Moore wins the primary, Jones has a great chance.If Jones loses, we need 4-5 seats to flip—4 if we win @POTUS, 5 if not.— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 15, 2019 In Colorado, @CoryGardner is in BIG trouble. John @Hickenlooper leads by 12 points!In #NC, @ThomTillis is literally polling in the toilet (approval rating in the 20’s!), so another great pickup opportunity for @TheDemocrats.😎— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 15, 2019 In #AZ, lucky loser @MarthaMcSally (lost to @SenatorSinema, but appointed to take over @SenJohnMcCain’s seat) is DOWN by 2 points to potential D nominee @ShuttleCDRKelly — the husband of @GabbyGiffords, who is a total rockstar in AZ.😃— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 15, 2019 Other states RIPE for the picking include #Iowa and #Kansas(!), where Kris Kobach is likely to win the GOP bid. Kobach just LOST his gubernatorial race to current DEMOCRATIC (in Kansas!) Governor @LauraKellyKS.Lots of discussion of pro-Trump candidates LOSING in red states.😀— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 15, 2019
A top (and I mean TOP) Senator gleefully reported that @realDonaldTrump is DOWN by 10 points in #Georgia!!🔥There are TWO seats up for grabs — @sendavidperdue and an OPEN seat (special election) being vacated by @SenatorIsakson.Major opportunities here.😎— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 15, 2019 #Montana is also a potential pickup....but @GovernorBullock remains on the sidelines. If Bullock gets in, Dems have a GREAT chance of flipping the seat.— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 15, 2019
So the Governor election in Louisiana is this Saturday. The sate is very red, the Republican challenger is very Trumpy. This should be an easy pick up for Republicans, the democrat is basically a RINO, that is why he won the seat originally, but can a very conservative Democrat hold on to the Governorship in Red Louisiana? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-louisiana-governors-race-looks-really-close/
To be honest, a good gop candidate would probably win easily, even though Edwards has done a pretty good job. (He only got elected in 2015 because people really hated Vitter.) But the guy who made the runoff is pretty bad. No government experience, won't even say what he wants to do. He hates immigrants, but his businesses hired them. Etc., etc.