PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, May 16, 2019.

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Will Congress stay divided after the 2020 election

This poll will close on Nov 6, 2020 at 11:36 AM.
  1. Yes, different parties will control each chamber.

  2. No, Republicans will keep the Senate and retake the House of Reps.

  3. No, Democrats will keep the House of Reps and retake the Senate.

  4. No, a great 3rd party take over of Congrees will happen.

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    As West Virginia leans +30 Republican by 538's latest calculation, you're not kidding.
     
  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #102 ceezmad, Sep 3, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2019
    The thing about Manchin, is that Dems probably need more politicians like him to win 50+ seats in the Senate.

    Manchin may never vote for Medicare for all, he will never vote for a green deal (unless lots of money gets thrown at West Virginia).

    If Dems win control of the house [Edit if they win the Senate], Senators like Manchin will be a pain in the side of progressive democratic ideas, but with out him and a few like him, Dems can not have control of the Senate.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  3. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He must have been given some serious guarantees of a chairmanship position in the Senate. For him to stay, he may have seen some good numbers showing the Dem may win the Senate as well.
     
    Dr. Wankler repped this.
  4. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    John Bel Edwards (LA) may eventually be another one, assuming he gets reelected governor next month. The Squad would hate him.
     
  5. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  6. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    They are all being shepherded into the Jade Helm prison camps.
     
    dapip, onefineesq, sitruc and 2 others repped this.
  7. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A good-not-great Trump district. Probably a GOP hold; but it's looking like there's going to be a really large number of these longshot districts. The Dems will flip 1 or 2.
     
    sitruc and charlie15 repped this.
  8. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sensenbrenner retires.
     
  9. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI, PVI R+13) retiring. His district should not be competitive. In 2018, the Democrats captured UT-04 (PVI R+13), MN-07 (PVI R+12), OK-05 (PVI R+10) and SC=01 (PVI R+10). It will be difficult to capture his seat.
     
  10. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    That's the irony of the GOPs weaponization of redistricting. They have an assload of very-good-not-impossible districts. A divisive primary, or an extremist candidate, or a dynamic Dem, it MIGHT flip.

    GOPs have a built in advantage, but also are more vulnerable to a cataclysm in the House because so many of their districts are +10 or so.
     
    American Brummie repped this.
  11. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    sitruc repped this.
  12. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gabby Giffords' husband is running for the Senate in AZ and is the likely Democratic nominee.

    The state Republican chair said they would stop him dead in his tracks.
     
    sitruc and dapip repped this.
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index here is a breakdown into seven categories. I'm not saying my ranges are exact matches, but it's similar to the seven categories of Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, Lean R, Likely R, and Solid R.

    D+20 or higher: 66
    D+10 to D+19: 56
    D+5 to D+9: 49
    R+4 to D+4: 66
    R+5 to R+9: 63
    R+10 to R+19: 98
    R+20 or higher: 37

    The R+10 to R+19 category has 4 Democrats, so the fact that 98 is much higher than 56 for D+10 to D+19 doesn't matter much. The difference is R+5 to R+9 having 14 more than D+5 to D+9. 178 districts, which is 40.9 percent, are R+9 to D+9.
     
  14. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Stay classy Az GOP CHAIRWOMAN.....

    Arizona GOP chairwoman Kelli Ward said in a fundraising email that the GOP would stop U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kelly (D) “dead in his tracks,” the Washington Post reports.
    “Ward’s choice wording stands out not only because Kelly is an ardent gun control advocate, but because he took up the cause after his wife, former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, survived an assassination attempt in which a gunman killed six people and left Giffords with traumatic brain injuries.”
     
  15. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Funkfoot and charlie15 repped this.
  16. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    When superdave posted that the GOP would stop Kelly dead in his tracks, I figured he was making a bad joke. No actual GOP politician would say that. Once again, I overestimated Republicans. I am Charlie Brown and they are Lucy. They fool me again and again and again.
     
    sitruc and song219 repped this.
  17. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    Nobody wants to run when the president's approval rating is hard-capped at 43%, apparently.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  18. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    When have I ever made a bad joke?
     
  19. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    True enough, that joke was a different level than your usual bad.
     
    superdave repped this.
  20. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Valerie Plame is running for congress and she just released this kick ass ad.

     
  21. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  22. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    sitruc, song219, chaski and 3 others repped this.
  23. Smurfquake

    Smurfquake Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 8, 2000
    San Carlos, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's good for them to pick a district that they have no chance of winning. Makes the grift that much better - money for nothing, no actual responsibilities since they're not going to win a lot of votes in Westwood or El Segundo.
     
  24. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

    Sep 16, 2003
    Laurel, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Modern day Republicans have such a gift with words.
     
  25. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Infants have such a gift for making things dirty and smelly.
     

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