That was a good thread. I wonder if Republicans in the senate are seeing those numbers. If so, does that increase the likelihood of impeachment? Or the likelihood of defending Trump By Any Means Necessary because a vote impeachment would immobilize the base or bring out primary challengers?
Considering the popularity of Trump among the Republican base, any vote that removes him from office is likely to have pretty negative consequences for Republicans currently in office, both in the form of primary challengers and, if they survive the primary, a lack of motivation of base Republicans in the general election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections#Pre-election_predictions used to have predictions from three sources, Cook, IE (Inside Elections), and Sabato. They added Politico predictions from November 19. I compared them to Cook, which had the most recent predictions of the original three. In each of these, the change is from Cook (older) to Sabato (newer) Sabato did not rate Iskason's seat because the incumbent is TBD by Georgia's Governor. All percents below are out of the 34 seats including regular and Arizona's special election: No change: 20/58.8% (Safe R: 8, Likely R: 3, Lean R: 0, Tossup: 2, Lean D: 1, Likely D: 2, Safe D: 4) Good for R: Safe D to Likely D: 4/11.8% (Delaware, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Virginia) Good for R: Tossup to Lean R: 2/5.9% (Alabama and Maine) Good for D: Safe R to Likely R: 4/11.8% (Alaska, Montana, South Carolina, and Tennessee) Good for D: Safe R to Lean R (the only change by two categories): 1/2.9% (Texas) Good for D: Likely R to Lean R: 2/5.9% (Georgia and Iowa) Good for D: Lean R to Tossup: 1/2.9% (North Carolina) 8 (57.1%) of the changes favored Democrats. When Sabato has it as Lean R, Tossup, or Lean D, 4 (66.7%) of the changes favored Democrats. I did not list categories such as Lean R to Likely R that did not happen. If Texas is competitive for president and/or Senate, it's a big deal. My representative, Kathleen Rice, endorsed Buttigieg. Rice's previous endorsement didn't help because she endorsed O'Rourke.
Freshman Jeff van Drew(D-NJ) is considering switching to the GOP because Dem voters in his district are mad about his upcoming vote AGAINST impeachment. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/facing-angry-local-dems-anti-impeachment-rep-may-switch-to-gop
Get primaried as a Dem, or run as a carpetbagging party switcher in the general election? That's no fun either way.
I assume he would still have to survive a challenge in the GOP primary, I would suspect that he did cut a deal that he would get support from the GOP establishment in any primary, but you never know, some Trumpist republican could come in and beat him out.
Which is interesting, because I saw that he vote against Trump 93% of the time. He's going to have to do a pretty massive about face on a lot of issues if he wants to survive a Republican primary.
wow, that is something, 93% votes against Trump, but was still in danger of being primaried due to his anti-impeachment vote (perhaps there is a lot more about this story than this). I guess Democrats are as boxed into impeachment as Republicans are boxed in to vote against it.
BTW, here's the link from 538 for Van Drew: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/jeff-van-drew/ He's in a +4.6 Trump district, but, given how such things have been trended, I suspect that district to lean Dem at this point.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/19/politics/mark-meadows-not-running-for-reelection-congress/index.html More time with the family? Meadows is open to a role in the Trump administration, but nothing has been finalized, the source told CNN, adding that he had been thinking about not seeking reelection for awhile. Last year, Meadows was considered for the role of White House chief of staff, but the "President told him we need him in Congress so he can continue the great work he is doing there," then-White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement. Lately, conversations about his role in Trump world have turned to something closer to the President's campaign, sources told CNN. While the top job in the West Wing hasn't been ruled out, Meadows has expressed an interest privately in playing a role in the President's reelection effort, two people say. Ultimately the decision will be up to Trump and his son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner
She's not the first Trump I heard may run for that seat. I heard Donald Trump Jr. may run. Trump Jr. was an elector and would have had an electoral vote in an alternate world where Trump won New York. Imagine two relatives competing in a primary. One story I know about relatives in the House is the Capps family. Lois Capps didn't plan on being a politician, but she ran in 1998 after her husband Walter died in office. She won four elections in 1998 with a primary for a special election, special election, primary for a regular election, and regular election. She was from a Democrat from southern California and has retired.
ok, so the NBA is a very woke league, the WNBA is even more awoken. Let's see what the reaction will be to the new Senator of Georgia. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...other-candidates-are-deciding-whether-to-run/
WBNA players have no power, so they won't be a problem for Loeffler. As for the fans, I don't think politics have reached the stage whereby Democratic fans boycott games from teams owned by Republicans. If so, they won't be watching many games.
Martha Mc Sally is in trouble..... Tough match up for her. NEW: #AZSEN Democratic candidate Mark Kelly raised $6.3 million last quarter, bringing his 2019 fundraising to $20.2 million for the year. He has $13.6 million cash on hand, per his campaign. @ShuttleCDRKelly @MarthaMcSally https://t.co/pAvTD8XXK7— Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (@yvonnewingett) January 14, 2020