2019 Playoff Watch

Discussion in 'San Jose Earthquakes' started by tvromero, Apr 9, 2019.

  1. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    One win down, many more to go. Do we stand a chance to make the playoffs?

    We are 5 games in, based on 2018 performance we will probably need at least 47 points to qualify. We currently have 3 so over the next 29 game we need 44 points or an average of just about 1.5 pts per game, we need to have a 50% win rate with a draw here or there.

    The current standing have us 5 pts out of a playoff spot.

    -Tim
     
    markmcf8 repped this.
  2. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
  3. Scott Rohde

    Scott Rohde Member

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 28, 2018
    fivethirtyeight.com has us at 13% to make playoffs.

    This time last year we had a 24% chance.
     
    Boysinblue repped this.
  4. bsman

    bsman Member+

    May 30, 2001
    Santa Clara
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Let's revive this thread in July.
     
  5. Earthshaker

    Earthshaker BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 12, 2005
    The hills above town
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That will be about the time we are mathematically eliminated, so shouldn't we be closing it then?;)
     
    xbhaskarx, markmcf8 and tvromero repped this.
  6. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    I did start it as an elimination watch but thought I would try to put it into a more positive light.
     
    DotMPP, Seismothusiast, markmcf8 and 2 others repped this.
  7. Earthshaker

    Earthshaker BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 12, 2005
    The hills above town
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, I know, but, gallows humor tends to dominate here.:)
     
  8. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/SanJose.html

    Assuming that they keep up on their stats, these guys are pretty good about estimating playoff chances.

    We're a serious long shot to make the playoffs this season. I'm just hoping for improvement and that Matias gets the guys on the right path. I'm shocked that we beat Portlandia, but very pleased.

    Go Quakes!!

    - Mark
     
  9. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Thank goodness for stats geeks. I never would have guessed the Quakes were a serious long shot for the playoffs without someone crunching the data. :)
     
    DotMPP and SalinasQuakesFan repped this.
  10. QuakeAttack

    QuakeAttack Member+

    Apr 10, 2002
    California - Bay Area
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is it April 1st again?
     
    markmcf8 repped this.
  11. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    #11 tvromero, Apr 9, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2019
    Chances of making the playoffs are 12.8% while the chances for the wooden spoon are 15%
     
    markmcf8 repped this.
  12. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course I want us to be successful. I would love to see us get better by the week until we're really dominant toward the end of the season.

    But if I'm a realist and sober, I bet we miss the playoffs. We just aren't good enough, and I don't expect our man marking system to work all of the time. (Mostly because our CDs are really slow.)

    I keep hoping that Matias will bench Godoy in favor of playing Judson, and if two D-mids, then Judson and Jackson.

    AND, we need Lima at right back where he belongs, and TT in central mid, where Eriksson is stinking up the field right now.

    Ahhhhhhh. Whiskey!

    Go Quakes!!

    - Mark
     
    davez and Sactown Soccer repped this.
  13. davez

    davez Member+

    Aug 10, 2000
    Mountain View, CA
    Whiskey does cure a lot of ills. :)
     
    markmcf8 repped this.
  14. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    Six games in and we are 6 points out of playoff contention.

    The current trend is pointing to needing 51 points by the end of the season to be in the hunt. We have three points and need to get 48 points over the next 28 games.

    That comes out to needing to average 1.7 points per game.

    Next three game needs:
    - 3 wins -- great
    - 2 wins -- great
    - 1 win, 2 draws -- keeps pace
    - 3 draws -- losing pace
     
  15. bsman

    bsman Member+

    May 30, 2001
    Santa Clara
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    In before the first Jim Mora...

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Scott Rohde

    Scott Rohde Member

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 28, 2018
    With Saturday’s loss we have dropped to around 9% chance of making the playoffs.
     
  17. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We're not even in the bottom five, because no one expected us to NOT suck....

    538 Playoff Odds: Largest Changes from Pre-Season to Today

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/


    Increase in Playoff Odds

    Team 2/26/19 4/17/19 Difference
    Minnesota 36% 64 +28%
    LA Galaxy 66% 90 +24%
    LAFC 77% 99 +22%
    DC United 55% 74 +19%
    Houston 55% 72 +17%

    Decrease in Playoff Odds

    Team 2/26/19 4/17/19 Difference
    Portland 74% 39% -35%
    Vancouver 41% 14% -27%
    New England 48% 22% -26%
    Real Salt Lake 65% 42% -23%
    NYCFC 77% 54% -23%
     
  18. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    Yeah but we went from 15% to 18.2% for winning the Wooden Spoon so we are definitely heading somewhere. I'll have to add that to the after game report out.
     
  19. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sports Club Stats says 8.1% chance in the playoffs.
    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/SanJose.html

    Not that I think they are better, just that it's another number cruncher prognosticator that says we suck. Just one more data point, as though we needed more.

    We should be eliminated from playoff contention by the end of May. If we need 1.7 PPG to make it now, that's a really steep climb. Soon, we'll be in 2+ territory, which will effectively mean that we're done. Which will be a great justification to not spend a ton of money in the summer transfer window because ... why bother?

    So over the next seven games (to the end of May) we have three at home and four on the road. We could lose them all, but even if we win three and lose four, we'll be falling behind the necessary trend line.

    Home vs Sporks - 20Apr
    Away vs Shittle - 24Apr
    Away vs FCKD - 27Apr
    Home vs Cincinasty - 4May - Fatai scores two against us
    Away vs CounterRevs - 11May - possible win
    Home vs Chitcago - 18May
    Away vs TFC - 26May - another possible win

    Doesn't look very promising does it? (Note that Toronto are doing much better than last season, so that's a likely loss too.) Chitcago are not doing well at home 1-2-1 right now, so there's a possible tie or win. But really, only three of these teams are teams we could beat. The others will thrash us. And I can't see us winning all of the three "softer" games. We're screwed.

    Fissure OUT!!

    - Mark
     
  20. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    Agreed
     
  21. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Would never have known we were screwed without the data crunchers. :)
     
    markmcf8 and Earthshaker repped this.
  22. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fatai will score two against us? Let's see if he even plays in two games this season. So far he has zero minutes.
    Thanks for the free $135k, Cincy chumps!

    The Earthquakes will receive $60,000 in Targeted Allocation Money (TAM) and $75,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) in 2019. San Jose will also receive future considerations if Alashe hits certain statistical benchmarks next season.
    I'm guessing the Quakes won't be receiving any "future considerations" based on benchmarks though lol
     
    Earthshaker repped this.
  23. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    fatai.jpg

    "What do you mean I'll never see another minute of MLS action?"
     
    Boysinblue repped this.
  24. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

    Oct 1, 2005
    birthplace of MLS
    It is simultaneously funny and depressing that this thread even exists.
     
  25. hc897

    hc897 Member+

    May 3, 2009
    San Jose, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, that was a pretty good move by the Quakes, it seems. I liked Alashe as an individual, but he had a lot of problems as a player, possibly exacerbated by playing under terrible coaching. Of course, a trade like that only benefits the Quakes if they put the money to good use. That's a very serious question mark right now.
     
    markmcf8 repped this.

Share This Page