One win down, many more to go. Do we stand a chance to make the playoffs? We are 5 games in, based on 2018 performance we will probably need at least 47 points to qualify. We currently have 3 so over the next 29 game we need 44 points or an average of just about 1.5 pts per game, we need to have a 50% win rate with a draw here or there. The current standing have us 5 pts out of a playoff spot. -Tim
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/SanJose.html Assuming that they keep up on their stats, these guys are pretty good about estimating playoff chances. We're a serious long shot to make the playoffs this season. I'm just hoping for improvement and that Matias gets the guys on the right path. I'm shocked that we beat Portlandia, but very pleased. Go Quakes!! - Mark
Thank goodness for stats geeks. I never would have guessed the Quakes were a serious long shot for the playoffs without someone crunching the data.
Of course I want us to be successful. I would love to see us get better by the week until we're really dominant toward the end of the season. But if I'm a realist and sober, I bet we miss the playoffs. We just aren't good enough, and I don't expect our man marking system to work all of the time. (Mostly because our CDs are really slow.) I keep hoping that Matias will bench Godoy in favor of playing Judson, and if two D-mids, then Judson and Jackson. AND, we need Lima at right back where he belongs, and TT in central mid, where Eriksson is stinking up the field right now. Ahhhhhhh. Whiskey! Go Quakes!! - Mark
Six games in and we are 6 points out of playoff contention. The current trend is pointing to needing 51 points by the end of the season to be in the hunt. We have three points and need to get 48 points over the next 28 games. That comes out to needing to average 1.7 points per game. Next three game needs: - 3 wins -- great - 2 wins -- great - 1 win, 2 draws -- keeps pace - 3 draws -- losing pace
We're not even in the bottom five, because no one expected us to NOT suck.... 538 Playoff Odds: Largest Changes from Pre-Season to Today https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/ Increase in Playoff Odds Team 2/26/19 4/17/19 Difference Minnesota 36% 64 +28% LA Galaxy 66% 90 +24% LAFC 77% 99 +22% DC United 55% 74 +19% Houston 55% 72 +17% Decrease in Playoff Odds Team 2/26/19 4/17/19 Difference Portland 74% 39% -35% Vancouver 41% 14% -27% New England 48% 22% -26% Real Salt Lake 65% 42% -23% NYCFC 77% 54% -23%
Yeah but we went from 15% to 18.2% for winning the Wooden Spoon so we are definitely heading somewhere. I'll have to add that to the after game report out.
Sports Club Stats says 8.1% chance in the playoffs. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/SanJose.html Not that I think they are better, just that it's another number cruncher prognosticator that says we suck. Just one more data point, as though we needed more. We should be eliminated from playoff contention by the end of May. If we need 1.7 PPG to make it now, that's a really steep climb. Soon, we'll be in 2+ territory, which will effectively mean that we're done. Which will be a great justification to not spend a ton of money in the summer transfer window because ... why bother? So over the next seven games (to the end of May) we have three at home and four on the road. We could lose them all, but even if we win three and lose four, we'll be falling behind the necessary trend line. Home vs Sporks - 20Apr Away vs Shittle - 24Apr Away vs FCKD - 27Apr Home vs Cincinasty - 4May - Fatai scores two against us Away vs CounterRevs - 11May - possible win Home vs Chitcago - 18May Away vs TFC - 26May - another possible win Doesn't look very promising does it? (Note that Toronto are doing much better than last season, so that's a likely loss too.) Chitcago are not doing well at home 1-2-1 right now, so there's a possible tie or win. But really, only three of these teams are teams we could beat. The others will thrash us. And I can't see us winning all of the three "softer" games. We're screwed. Fissure OUT!! - Mark
Fatai will score two against us? Let's see if he even plays in two games this season. So far he has zero minutes. Thanks for the free $135k, Cincy chumps! The Earthquakes will receive $60,000 in Targeted Allocation Money (TAM) and $75,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) in 2019. San Jose will also receive future considerations if Alashe hits certain statistical benchmarks next season. I'm guessing the Quakes won't be receiving any "future considerations" based on benchmarks though lol
Yeah, that was a pretty good move by the Quakes, it seems. I liked Alashe as an individual, but he had a lot of problems as a player, possibly exacerbated by playing under terrible coaching. Of course, a trade like that only benefits the Quakes if they put the money to good use. That's a very serious question mark right now.